Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Broncos vs Bengals-6.5*+1.1+6.5
-0.8*-0.0+0.8
Ravens vs Redskins-1.0*+2.1+1.0
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Browns vs Raiders-0.8*-0.2+0.8
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Chargers vs Steelers+0.7*+3.1-0.7
+0.0+0.3-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.3*-1.7-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.3*-4.1-0.3
+0.0-0.6-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.3*+1.8-0.3
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.2*+1.2+0.2
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.2*+2.1+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.2*-1.4+0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.2*-0.6+0.2
-0.0-0.2+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.2*-0.9+0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Saints-1.0*+1.4+1.0
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Colts-0.7*+0.2+0.7
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Browns vs Broncos-0.7*-2.4+0.7
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.3*+1.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.3-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.3*+1.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.3*+1.7+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.3*+2.4+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.2*-1.3+0.2
Cardinals vs Bills+0.2*-1.5-0.2
+0.0*-0.4-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bengals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100254*
2525-6-0In9910469
24.524-6-1In1005
2424-7-0In99101,782*
23.523-7-1In10030
2323-8-0In96315,279*
22.522-8-1In972194
2222-9-0In89902013,305*
21.521-9-1In831205223
2121-10-0In7121206029,419*
20.520-10-1In6026590522
2020-11-0100.0%4633701310056,528
19-10-2In75254
19.519-11-199.93339911610857
1919-12-099.4183318322510093,288
18-11-2In175017176
18.518-12-198.2828246249201,420
1818-13-093.641824923165100136,026
17-12-2In14437211414
17.517-13-184.9192214192012212,032
1717-14-069.604151613221893100174,924
16-13-261.161711281717618
16.516-14-150.401816619231772002,412
1616-15-031.100414310192216831000198,469
15-14-240.020101030201010
15.515-15-116.3021014112122179212,506
1515-16-08.80170151321221793100198,814
14-15-216.788253317812
14.514-16-13.70300151422251882102,347
1414-17-02.3020002614222418920175,635
13-16-28.3882525171712
13.513-17-11.2101615242719611,955
1313-18-00.51000027172727154135,519
12-17-2Out1429213614
12.512-18-10.2002820332791,458
1212-19-00.10000141329351893,232
11-18-2Out91836181811
11.511-19-10.10015194134903
1111-20-00.0000313384555,908
10-19-2Out1750336
10.510-20-1Out053758514
1010-21-00.00003247229,421*
9.59-21-1Out011781237
99-22-0Out1118913,493
8.58-22-1Out109091
88-23-0Out04965,156*
7.57-23-1Out39732
77-24-0Out1991,751
0-6.5Out100687*
Total:37.5%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Broncos vs Bengals+1.5*+0.0-1.5
Giants vs Chiefs-0.0+1.3+0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.0+0.5-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0-0.3+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Browns vs Raiders+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Chargers vs Steelers-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cardinals vs Bills-0.0+0.8+0.0
Ravens vs Saints+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Colts+0.1-0.0-0.1
Browns vs Broncos+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Chiefs vs Packers+0.0+0.1-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.0*-0.4-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-099110
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-1973
2323-8-092431
22.522-8-190621
2222-9-0781190020
21.521-9-167161205
2121-10-0492220120600
20.520-10-1322825150900
2020-11-018272857001311000
19.519-11-172631890115110
1919-12-021618151623018450100
18-11-21733171717
18.518-12-108918195501779020
1818-13-00431514991111214251000
17-12-21436772114
17.517-13-11098141226131641231
1717-14-00043121152111011151041000
16-13-2617661117171111
16.516-14-101089806316131911510
1616-15-00004490311051216161162100
15-14-2201010101010101010
15.515-15-10229140391723189410
1515-16-0001160100261116181611631000
14-15-288171725817
14.514-16-10030000149202420134100
1414-17-0002000001261217201712721000
13-16-288428258
13.513-17-110151220242012410
1313-18-00100000149162121168310
12-17-27142136147
12.512-18-10001511242423930
1212-19-000001411212722112
11-18-2182718279
11.511-19-1002102234257
1111-20-00001413293518
10-19-2173350
10.510-20-115214429
1010-21-00002113650
9.59-21-1043165
99-22-0022077
8.58-22-11585
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1397
77-24-0397
6.56-24-1100
66-25-00100
0-5.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333