Workington Title Chances 2014 50/50Lost to Blyth 0-1, title odds down 2.3 to 1.9% 37 points 10-7-7 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain Week of 12/20 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed | Blyth 1 Workington 0 | -1.8 | | -3.5 | | +0.1 | | -0.9 | | Workington 2 Stamford 0 | +1.4 | | +3.2 | | -0.2 | | +1.0 | | Skelmersdale 3 Marine 1 | -0.5 | | -0.6 | | | | -0.1 | | Halesowen 2 Skelmersdale 0 | +0.3 | | +0.3 | | | | | | Belper 2 Ilkeston 3 | -0.3 | | -0.5 | | | | -0.1 | | Buxton 3 Matlock Town 2 | -0.2 | | -0.4 | | | | -0.1 | | Ashton United 4 Belper 3 | -0.1 | | -0.3 | | | | -0.1 | | Kings Lynn 2 Ramsbottom 1 | +0.1 | | +0.1 | | | | | | Ilkeston 1 Witton Albion 1 | *+0.1 | | *+0.1 | | | | | | Stourbridge 1 Halesowen 1 | *+0.1 | | +0.1 | | | | | | Nantwich 1 Buxton 1 | | | | | | | +0.0 | | Trafford 0 Rushall Olympic 3 | | | -0.2 | | | | -0.1 | | Grantham 1 Blyth 7 | | | +0.1 | | | | | | Whitby 1 Stourbridge 0 | | | +0.1 | | | | | | Stamford 1 Grantham 1 | | | *+0.1 | | | | | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Week of 12/28 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed | Workington vs Skelmersdale | +1.5-0.5-1.2 | | +3.5-0.9-2.8 | | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | +1.0-0.2-0.9 | | Belper vs Workington | -1.0-0.4+1.2 | | -2.5-0.9+3.1 | | +0.1-0.0-0.1 | | -0.8-0.2+1.0 | | Ramsbottom vs Skelmersdale | +0.2+0.1-0.3 | | *+0.0+0.1-0.1 | | | | | | Stamford vs Curzon Ashton | +0.2+0.1-0.2 | | +0.2+0.1-0.3 | | | | | | Ashton United vs Matlock Town | -0.2+0.0+0.1 | | -0.4*+0.1+0.3 | | | | -0.1+0.0+0.0 | | Ashton United vs Curzon Ashton | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | | *-0.0+0.2-0.1 | | | | | | Buxton vs Whitby | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | | -0.3+0.1+0.2 | | | | | | Grantham vs Ilkeston | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | | +0.1+0.1-0.2 | | | | | | Nantwich vs Ramsbottom | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | | +0.2*+0.1-0.3 | | | | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | | Witton Albion vs Rushall Olympic | | | +0.1*+0.1-0.2 | | | | +0.0+0.0-0.1 | | Grantham vs Frickley | | | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | | | | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | | Rushall Olympic vs Stourbridge | | | *+0.0+0.1-0.1 | | | | | | Halesowen vs Marine | | | | | | | -0.1*+0.0+0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the Workington finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance | | Chance will finish season at seed | | | TP | W | - | D | - | L | wins title | Promoted | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | Relegated | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 83 | -88 | | Yes | Yes | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 367 | * | 82 | | 14 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 97.9 | % | 97.9 | % | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 48 | * | 81 | | 14 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 97.1 | | 97.8 | | 97 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 137 | | 80 | | 14 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 96.5 | | 97.1 | | 96 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 311 | * | 79 | | 13 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 95.6 | | 96.6 | | 96 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 587 | * | 78 | | 13 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 89.2 | | 91.9 | | 89 | 11 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 1,183 | * | 77 | | 13 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 86.6 | | 89.9 | | 87 | 13 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 2,078 | * | 76 | | 12 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 80.1 | | 85.1 | | 80 | 18 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 3,636 | * | 75 | | 12 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 70.3 | | 77.7 | | 70 | 26 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 6,133 | * | 74 | | 11 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 59.8 | | 69.9 | | 60 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 9,763 | * | 73 | | 11 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 48.0 | | 61.0 | | 48 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 15,119 | * | 72 | | 11 | - | 2 | - | 4 | 35.0 | | 51.2 | | 35 | 44 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 22,669 | * | 71 | | 10 | - | 4 | - | 3 | 23.5 | | 42.6 | | 23 | 43 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 32,014 | * | 70 | | 10 | - | 3 | - | 4 | 14.1 | | 35.5 | | 14 | 37 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 45,776 | * | 69 | | 10 | - | 2 | - | 5 | 7.4 | | 30.4 | | 7 | 28 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 60,924 | * | 68 | | 9 | - | 4 | - | 4 | 3.2 | | 26.8 | | 3 | 18 | 35 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 79,269 | * | 67 | | 9 | - | 3 | - | 5 | 1.1 | | 24.1 | | 1 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 100,205 | * | 66 | | 8 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 0.3 | | 21.1 | | 0 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 122,197 | * | 65 | | 8 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 0.1 | | 16.9 | | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 144,807 | * | 64 | | 8 | - | 3 | - | 6 | 0.0 | | 11.6 | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 166,045 | * | 63 | | 7 | - | 5 | - | 5 | No | 6.4 | | | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 32 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 183,358 | * | 62 | | 7 | - | 4 | - | 6 | No | 2.8 | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 32 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | No | 198,829 | * | 61 | | 7 | - | 3 | - | 7 | No | 0.8 | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | No | 124,109 | * | | 6 | - | 6 | - | 5 | No | 1.0 | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | No | 83,672 | | 60 | | 6 | - | 5 | - | 6 | No | 0.2 | | | | | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 30 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 124,626 | | | 7 | - | 2 | - | 8 | No | 0.2 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 84,783 | * | 59 | | 6 | - | 4 | - | 7 | No | 0.0 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 205,003 | * | 58 | | 6 | - | 3 | - | 8 | No | 0.0 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 110,259 | * | | 5 | - | 6 | - | 6 | No | 0.0 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 82,654 | | 57 | | 5 | - | 5 | - | 7 | No | No | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 28 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 176,675 | * | 56 | | 5 | - | 4 | - | 8 | No | No | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 156,461 | * | 55 | | 5 | - | 3 | - | 9 | No | No | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | No | 134,113 | * | 54 | | 4 | - | 5 | - | 8 | No | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | No | 110,362 | * | 53 | | 4 | - | 4 | - | 9 | No | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 29 | 12 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | No | 87,239 | * | 52 | | 4 | - | 3 | - | 10 | No | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | | | | | No | 67,186 | * | 51 | | 3 | - | 5 | - | 9 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 32 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | 0.0 | % | 48,999 | * | 50 | | 3 | - | 4 | - | 10 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | 0.0 | | 34,518 | * | 49 | | 3 | - | 3 | - | 11 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | 0.2 | | 23,384 | * | 48 | | 2 | - | 5 | - | 10 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | 1.1 | | 14,975 | * | 47 | | 2 | - | 4 | - | 11 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 34 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | 3.7 | | 8,907 | * | 46 | | 2 | - | 3 | - | 12 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 6 | 22 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | | 5,256 | * | 45 | | 1 | - | 5 | - | 11 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21.9 | | 2,792 | * | 44 | | 1 | - | 4 | - | 12 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 5 | 20 | 34 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 40.6 | | 1,474 | * | 43 | | 1 | - | 3 | - | 13 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 34 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 56.5 | | 650 | * | 42 | | 1 | - | 2 | - | 14 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 73.2 | | 295 | * | 41 | | 0 | - | 4 | - | 13 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 37 | 17 | 1 | 87.6 | | 113 | * | 40 | | 0 | - | 3 | - | 14 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14 | 23 | 41 | 18 | 5 | 86.4 | | 44 | | 39 | | 0 | - | 2 | - | 15 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 23 | 38 | 15 | 23 | Yes | 13 | | 38 | | 0 | - | 1 | - | 16 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | Yes | 1 | | 37 | | 0 | - | 0 | - | 17 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 19 | 53 | 26 | Yes | 326 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 1.9 | % | 7.7 | % | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | % | 2,884,344 | |
* Row combines multiple less frequent records. Chance Will Win Championship |