Buxton Title Chances 2014 50/50Beat Matlock Town 3-2, title odds up 2.1 to 10% 42 points 12-6-6 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain Week of 12/20 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed | Buxton 3 Matlock Town 2 | +3.7 | | +5.4 | | +0.9 | | Nantwich 1 Buxton 1 | -1.1 | | -1.4 | | -0.2 | | Skelmersdale 3 Marine 1 | -0.9 | | -0.9 | | -0.1 | | Halesowen 2 Skelmersdale 0 | +0.9 | | +0.8 | | | | Belper 2 Ilkeston 3 | -0.4 | | -0.6 | | -0.1 | | Ashton United 4 Belper 3 | -0.4 | | -0.6 | | -0.1 | | Kings Lynn 2 Ramsbottom 1 | +0.2 | | +0.3 | | | | Blyth 1 Workington 0 | +0.2 | | +0.3 | | | | Whitby 1 Stourbridge 0 | +0.2 | | +0.3 | | | | Stourbridge 1 Halesowen 1 | *+0.1 | | +0.1 | | | | Ilkeston 1 Witton Albion 1 | *+0.1 | | *+0.1 | | *+0.0 | | Trafford 0 Rushall Olympic 3 | | | -0.2 | | -0.1 | | Grantham 1 Blyth 7 | | | +0.2 | | | | Stamford 1 Grantham 1 | | | *+0.1 | | | | Frickley 1 Whitby 1 | | | *+0.1 | | | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Week of 12/28 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed | Ilkeston vs Buxton | -4.2-1.3+5.1 | | -5.8-1.4+6.7 | | -0.8-0.1+0.9 | | Buxton vs Whitby | +4.6-1.4-3.7 | | +6.1-1.5-5.1 | | +0.8-0.1-0.7 | | Workington vs Skelmersdale | +1.0+0.4-1.3 | | +0.7+0.4-0.9 | | | | Ramsbottom vs Skelmersdale | +0.8+0.5-1.1 | | +0.5+0.4-0.8 | | | | Stamford vs Curzon Ashton | +0.8+0.2-1.0 | | +0.7+0.2-0.9 | | | | Ashton United vs Matlock Town | -0.7+0.2+0.6 | | -0.8+0.2+0.7 | | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | | Grantham vs Ilkeston | +0.5+0.2-0.6 | | +0.4+0.3-0.6 | | | | Ashton United vs Curzon Ashton | +0.1+0.5-0.4 | | *-0.0+0.5-0.3 | | | | Nantwich vs Ramsbottom | +0.2+0.1-0.3 | | +0.4+0.2-0.5 | | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | | Belper vs Workington | +0.1*+0.1-0.2 | | +0.3*+0.1-0.4 | | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | | Blyth vs Stourbridge | +0.1*+0.1-0.1 | | +0.2+0.1-0.3 | | | | Witton Albion vs Rushall Olympic | | | +0.2*+0.1-0.3 | | +0.0*+0.0-0.1 | | Rushall Olympic vs Stourbridge | | | *+0.0+0.2-0.2 | | | | Grantham vs Frickley | | | -0.2*+0.1+0.1 | | -0.1+0.0+0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the Buxton finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance | | Chance will finish season at seed | | | TP | W | - | D | - | L | wins title | Promoted | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | Relegated | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 87 | -93 | | Yes | Yes | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 403 | * | 86 | | 14 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 99.3 | % | 99.3 | % | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 148 | | 85 | | 14 | - | 1 | - | 2 | Yes | Yes | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 312 | * | 84 | | 13 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 99.5 | | 99.5 | | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 567 | * | 83 | | 13 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 99.3 | | 99.5 | | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 1,218 | * | 82 | | 12 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 99.0 | | 99.2 | | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 2,114 | * | 81 | | 12 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 97.5 | | 98.1 | | 97 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 3,518 | * | 80 | | 12 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 95.9 | | 96.9 | | 96 | 4 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 6,045 | * | 79 | | 11 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 93.4 | | 95.0 | | 93 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 9,685 | * | 78 | | 11 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 89.9 | | 92.4 | | 90 | 10 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 15,305 | * | 77 | | 11 | - | 2 | - | 4 | 84.6 | | 88.5 | | 85 | 14 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 22,695 | * | 76 | | 10 | - | 4 | - | 3 | 77.8 | | 83.4 | | 78 | 20 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 32,398 | * | 75 | | 10 | - | 3 | - | 4 | 68.9 | | 76.7 | | 69 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 45,306 | * | 74 | | 10 | - | 2 | - | 5 | 58.1 | | 68.6 | | 58 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 61,057 | * | 73 | | 9 | - | 4 | - | 4 | 46.3 | | 59.8 | | 46 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 78,686 | * | 72 | | 9 | - | 3 | - | 5 | 34.5 | | 50.9 | | 34 | 44 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 100,156 | * | 71 | | 8 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 22.9 | | 42.2 | | 23 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 122,211 | * | 70 | | 8 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 13.8 | | 35.3 | | 14 | 38 | 34 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 143,781 | * | 69 | | 8 | - | 3 | - | 6 | 7.2 | | 30.3 | | 7 | 29 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 165,652 | * | 68 | | 7 | - | 5 | - | 5 | 3.4 | | 27.1 | | 3 | 19 | 36 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 107,162 | | | 8 | - | 2 | - | 7 | 2.9 | | 26.7 | | 3 | 17 | 35 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 77,739 | * | 67 | | 7 | - | 4 | - | 6 | 1.1 | | 24.3 | | 1 | 10 | 28 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 198,835 | * | 66 | | 7 | - | 3 | - | 7 | 0.3 | | 21.2 | | 0 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 114,945 | | | 6 | - | 6 | - | 5 | 0.3 | | 21.9 | | 0 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 93,440 | * | 65 | | 6 | - | 5 | - | 6 | 0.1 | | 17.8 | | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 125,048 | | | 7 | - | 2 | - | 8 | 0.1 | | 17.2 | | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 34 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 84,551 | * | 64 | | 6 | - | 4 | - | 7 | 0.0 | | 12.3 | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 31 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 204,682 | * | 63 | | 6 | - | 3 | - | 8 | No | 6.7 | | | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 32 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 110,992 | * | | 5 | - | 6 | - | 6 | 0.0 | | 7.5 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | No | 83,170 | | 62 | | 5 | - | 5 | - | 7 | No | 3.2 | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | No | 176,682 | * | 61 | | 5 | - | 4 | - | 8 | No | 1.1 | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | No | 156,604 | * | 60 | | 5 | - | 3 | - | 9 | No | 0.2 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | No | 133,502 | * | 59 | | 4 | - | 5 | - | 8 | No | 0.0 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 110,314 | * | 58 | | 4 | - | 4 | - | 9 | No | 0.0 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 86,977 | * | 57 | | 4 | - | 3 | - | 10 | No | No | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | No | 67,086 | * | 56 | | 3 | - | 5 | - | 9 | No | No | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | No | 49,181 | * | 55 | | 3 | - | 4 | - | 10 | No | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 32 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | No | 34,501 | * | 54 | | 3 | - | 3 | - | 11 | No | No | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 33 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | No | 22,879 | * | 53 | | 2 | - | 5 | - | 10 | No | No | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | No | 14,956 | * | 52 | | 2 | - | 4 | - | 11 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | | No | 8,874 | * | 51 | | 2 | - | 3 | - | 12 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 37 | 15 | 3 | 0 | | | | | No | 5,271 | * | 50 | | 1 | - | 5 | - | 11 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 5 | 20 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 0 | | | | 0.2 | % | 2,790 | * | 49 | | 1 | - | 4 | - | 12 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 11 | 31 | 36 | 18 | 3 | 0 | | | | 0.1 | | 1,434 | * | 48 | | 1 | - | 3 | - | 13 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 23 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 0 | | | 1.7 | | 698 | * | 47 | | 1 | - | 2 | - | 14 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 8 | 36 | 31 | 18 | 5 | | | | 5.2 | | 286 | * | 46 | | 0 | - | 4 | - | 13 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 21 | 38 | 27 | 9 | 3 | | | 11.1 | | 117 | * | 45 | | 0 | - | 3 | - | 14 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9 | 6 | 24 | 33 | 15 | 12 | | | 27.3 | | 33 | * | 44 | | 0 | - | 2 | - | 15 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30 | 10 | 40 | 20 | | | 60.0 | | 10 | | 43 | | 0 | - | 1 | - | 16 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 50 | | | | | 50 | | 50.0 | | 2 | | 42 | | 0 | - | 0 | - | 17 | No | No | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 83.7 | | 326 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 10.0 | % | 22.1 | % | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 2,884,344 | |
* Row combines multiple less frequent records. Chance Will Win Championship |