"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday, 2/9100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Henrique 1 Peter 0 -1.3
+0.1
Thursday, 2/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Henrique 1 Abraham 0 -5.2
-0.7
Abraham 0 Anton 1 (ot)-3.0
-0.3
Henrique 0 Fr. Cris 1 +1.2
Fr. Cris 1 Felipe 0 +0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Friday, 2/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Abraham vs Jack+0.9-0.3-0.6-0.6
+0.9+0.3-0.5-0.9
Abraham vs Felipe+0.9-0.3-0.6-0.6
+0.7+0.2-0.4-0.7
Abraham vs JZ+0.9-0.2-0.6-0.6
+0.7+0.2-0.4-0.7
Fr. Cris vs William+0.4+0.0-0.2-0.3
William vs Anton-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.4
Alvaro vs William+0.4+0.0-0.2-0.3
William vs JZ-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.4
Henrique vs William+0.3+0.0-0.2-0.3
Ede vs William+0.3+0.0-0.2-0.3
-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.2
William vs Jack-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
William vs Felipe+0.0-0.4-0.2+0.2
Felipe vs Jack-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Peter vs Felipe+0.2-0.3-0.1-0.1
-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.2
Peter vs William+0.2*+0.0-0.1-0.2
-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.2
Alvaro vs Peter+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.2
+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.2
JZ vs Jack+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Alvaro vs Jack+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Anton vs Jack+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Anton vs Raph+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Abraham finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OT-WL-OTplayoffs12345678910111213Count
143-0-00-09.2%0981100407,411
132-1-00-02.53762010406,265
122-0-00-10.10203830101406,183
1-2-00-00.1022392991134,970
112-0-01-00.00929372141,218,023
1-1-00-10.0093037204270,795
0-3-00-00.0010313819314,903
101-1-01-00.00316343513813,343
1-0-00-2Out315343513135,310
0-2-00-10.0031634351345,213
91-0-01-1Out064054812,582
0-2-01-0Out074350135,733
0-1-00-2Out6405444,931
81-0-02-0Out229691,219,627
0-1-01-1Out22870270,746
0-0-00-3Out2247515,147
70-1-02-0Out11584406,564
0-0-01-2Out01287135,295
60-0-02-1Out397406,924
50-0-03-0Out199408,385
Total:0.6%0112121521397,708,350
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs