Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Washington vs Montreal+4.2+4.1+3.3-1.0-0.7-5.1
+0.8+0.8+0.7-0.2-0.2-0.9
+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.4*-0.3-0.5*-0.0*+0.2+0.5
-0.0*-0.0-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.4*+0.2*-0.1*-0.2*-0.3-0.3
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.3*+0.0*-0.0*+0.1*-0.2-0.2
Philadelphia vs New Jersey*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.6*-0.2*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
121-164InYes100712*
1205517-10In98.4%9900316*
1195518-9In98.81000487*
1185418-10In98.19901721*
1175419-9In97.799101,053*
1165420-8In95.198111,517*
1155320-9In93.2972202,178*
1145220-10In90.99532002,909*
1135221-9In85.793434,121*
1125222-8In81.1905505,504*
1115122-9In73.78776007,382*
1105022-10In65.181108009,632*
1095023-9In55.275131100012,377*
1084923-10In44.568161501015,767*
1074924-9In34.1602019010019,733*
1064824-10In23.25023241300023,938*
1054825-9In13.93927272400029,171*
1044725-10100.0%7.630293137010034,580*
1034726-9100.03.6213032510010040,391*
1024626-10100.01.2132932914020046,896*
1014627-9100.00.3826301319140053,581*
1004527-1099.90.14212418232710059,822*
994528-999.80.021718212551120066,112*
984428-1099.3No112112325915410072,670*
974429-998.1No08621221419820078,233*
964329-1095.1No05318161822134100082,500*
954330-988.7No03114102122189200086,320*
944230-1078.2No1095211923156100089,651*
934231-962.8No10621713232111410090,582*
924131-1045.2No00311381924189310090,941*
914132-928.4No002094132324167200089,761*
904032-1015.3No001052718262213510087,374*
894033-97.2No000313112226201030084,426*
883933-103.0No00010161525261771079,651*
873833-111.1No010029202724133074,380*
863834-100.5No000014132429207168,331*
853734-110.1No00002718292713362,375*
843735-100.0No0001412263220555,754*
833736-90.0No000172033281049,792*
823636-100.0No00131431361643,229*
813536-11OutNo0002926402436,969*
803537-10OutNo001520413331,806*
793538-9OutNo00314404326,341*
783438-10OutNo0110355421,888*
773338-11OutNo016326117,632*
763339-10OutNo004267014,467*
753340-9OutNo002217711,340*
743240-10OutNo0117828,863*
733140-11OutNo0112876,617*
723141-10OutNo010905,061*
713041-11OutNo07933,771*
703042-10OutNo05952,839*
693043-9OutNo3972,121*
682943-10OutNo2981,525*
672944-9OutNo2981,040*
662844-10OutNo199723*
652744-11OutNo199523*
0-64OutNo1001,144*
Total:50.0%3.3%66666666666666661,919,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Philadelphia-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Montreal-0.9-0.9-0.7+0.2+0.1+1.1
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim+0.1*+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs NY Rangers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs New Jersey*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Florida*-0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
121-164100
1205517-1098100
1195518-99910
1185418-1098101
1175419-998110
1165420-895311
1155320-9933220
1145220-109153200
1135221-986743
1125222-8819550
1115122-9741370600
1105022-1065161008000
1095023-95520130110000
1084923-104424160150010
1074924-9342619118101000
1064824-102326222221130000
1054825-914262432532040000
1044725-1082224526530700100
1034726-9417228258501000100
1024626-10112181121119014102000
1014627-9071312151413017214000
1004527-10048139151611932070100
994528-902512414183196501002000
984428-10121011016615109014140100
974429-90170612991313117380200
964329-100050371141216216612041000
954330-9003014101916513917182000
944230-1001018051388111941462000
934231-9010050281031015819125100
924131-1000003014101781120191141000
914132-9000201804310142219114100
904032-1000010050217717232012510000
894033-9000030103281723211362000
883933-10000010010381723221472100
873833-11001000013816222216831000
863834-100000001271522231793100
853734-1100000127152224178200
843735-10000012716242417720
833736-900001381826251551
823636-1000001311212823102
813536-11000015142630185
803537-100002821322810
793538-9001414293518
783438-100028243927
773338-110014184136
763339-100002123848
753340-90183358
743240-100052866
733140-11022375
723141-10011880
713041-11011386
703042-1001090
693043-90694
682943-100495
672944-90397
662844-10298
652744-11199
642846-8199
632746-9100
622646-10199
59-61100
582347-12595
0-57100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333