Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2014

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50.1%

0 points 0 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Montreal	+3.8+3.5+2.9-1.7-1.7-6.0		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.3-0.3-1.0		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.7
Boston vs Philadelphia	-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Ottawa	+0.4-0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.4				+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs NY Rangers	+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.4*-0.2-0.2
Detroit vs Boston	+0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Florida	+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1
Washington vs Montreal	+0.2-0.2-0.0-0.3-0.2-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim	-0.2+0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-164						In		99.7	%	100																930	*
121		56	17		-	9	In		99.5		100	0															380	*
120		56	18		-	8	In		99.7		100		0														583	*
119		55	18		-	9	In		98.9		99	0	0														846	*
118		55	19		-	8	In		98.3		99	1	0														1,379	*
117		54	19		-	9	In		97.3		99	1	0														1,948	*
116		53	19		-	10	In		96.1		98	1	1														2,887	*
115		53	20		-	9	In		93.5		97	2	1														4,131	*
114		52	20		-	10	In		91.5		96	2	2														5,697	*
113		52	21		-	9	In		87.5		94	3	3		0												7,773	*
112		51	21		-	10	In		81.8		91	5	4		0												10,649	*
111		51	22		-	9	In		75.0		87	7	6	0	0												14,258	*
110		50	22		-	10	In		67.0		82	10	8	0	0		0										18,694	*
109		50	23		-	9	In		57.7		76	13	11	0	0		0										24,086	*
108		49	23		-	10	In		46.1		69	16	14	0	1		0										30,453	*
107		49	24		-	9	In		34.9		60	20	18	0	1		0										37,935	*
106		48	24		-	10	In		24.3		51	23	22	1	2		0										46,849	*
105		48	25		-	9	In		15.1		40	27	27	1	4	0	0	0									57,502	*
104		47	25		-	10	100.0	%	8.1		30	29	31	3	6	0	1	0	0								68,391	*
103		47	26		-	9	100.0		3.8		21	30	33	5	10	0	1	0	0								80,894	*
102		46	26		-	10	100.0		1.4		14	29	32	9	14	0	2	0	0	0							93,819	*
101		46	27		-	9	100.0		0.4		8	26	30	13	18	1	4	0	0								107,224	*
100		45	27		-	10	99.9		0.1		4	22	24	17	23	2	7	1	0	0							120,754	*
99		45	28		-	9	99.7		0.0		2	17	18	21	25	5	11	2	0	0							133,465	*
98		44	28		-	10	99.3		No		1	12	11	23	25	9	15	4	1	0	0	0					145,959	*
97		44	29		-	9	98.1		No		0	8	6	22	22	14	19	8	2	0	0	0					157,024	*
96		43	29		-	10	95.2		No		0	5	3	19	16	18	22	13	4	1	0	0	0				166,606	*
95		43	30		-	9	89.1		No		0	3	1	14	10	21	22	18	8	2	0	0	0				174,354	*
94		42	30		-	10	78.5		No		0	1	0	10	5	20	19	23	14	6	1	0	0	0			180,079	*
93		42	31		-	9	63.1		No		0	1	0	6	2	18	13	23	21	11	4	1	0	0	0		182,680	*
92		41	31		-	10	45.3		No			0	0	3	1	13	8	19	24	18	9	3	1	0	0		183,090	*
91		41	32		-	9	28.4		No			0	0	2	0	9	4	13	23	24	16	7	2	0	0	0	181,189	*
90		40	32		-	10	15.3		No			0	0	1	0	5	2	7	18	25	23	13	5	1	0	0	176,761	*
89		40	33		-	9	7.3		No			0		0	0	3	1	3	11	22	26	21	10	3	0	0	169,412	*
88		39	33		-	10	3.0		No			0		0	0	2	0	1	6	15	25	26	17	7	1	0	159,665	*
87		39	34		-	9	1.1		No			0		0		1	0	0	2	8	19	27	24	13	4	0	150,158	*
86		38	34		-	10	0.4		No			0		0		0	0	0	1	4	13	24	29	20	8	1	137,957	*
85		38	35		-	9	0.1		No			0		0		0	0	0	0	2	7	18	29	27	14	3	124,891	*
84		37	35		-	10	0.0		No					0		0		0	0	1	3	12	25	32	21	6	112,178	*
83		37	36		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	7	20	33	29	10	98,494	*
82		36	36		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	3	13	30	36	17	86,423	*
81		35	36		-	11	Out		No											0	0	2	8	25	40	25	73,383	*
80		35	37		-	10	Out		No											0	0	1	5	19	42	34	62,710	*
79		34	37		-	11	Out		No												0	0	2	14	40	44	51,986	*
78		34	38		-	10	Out		No												0	0	1	9	36	54	42,894	*
77		34	39		-	9	Out		No												0	0	1	6	31	63	34,393	*
76		33	39		-	10	Out		No													0	0	4	26	70	27,934	*
75		33	40		-	9	Out		No													0	0	2	21	77	21,816	*
74		32	40		-	10	Out		No														0	1	16	83	16,832	*
73		32	41		-	9	Out		No														0	0	11	88	13,003	*
72		31	41		-	10	Out		No															0	8	91	9,856	*
71		31	42		-	9	Out		No															0	6	94	7,389	*
70		30	42		-	10	Out		No															0	4	95	5,403	*
69		30	43		-	9	Out		No															0	3	97	3,955	*
68		29	43		-	10	Out		No																2	98	2,686	*
67		29	44		-	9	Out		No																2	98	1,999	*
66		28	44		-	10	Out		No																1	99	1,367	*
65		28	45		-	9	Out		No																1	99	943	*
64		27	45		-	10	Out		No																0	100	632	*
62	-63						Out		No																	100	669	*
61		25	46		-	11	Out		No																1	99	184	*
0	-60						Out		No																	100	599	*

Total:							50.1	%	3.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3,839,080

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Montreal	-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.4+0.3+1.2
Boston vs Philadelphia	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville vs Ottawa	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Washington vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Columbus	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Florida	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

124	-164						100
123		57	16		-	9	99	1
122		57	17		-	8	100	0
121		56	17		-	9	99	0	0
120		56	18		-	8	100	0			0
119		55	18		-	9	99	0	0		0
118		55	19		-	8	98	1	1		0
117		54	19		-	9	97	2	1		0
116		53	19		-	10	96	2	1		1
115		53	20		-	9	93	4	2		1
114		52	20		-	10	92	4	2		2
113		52	21		-	9	87	7	3		3				0
112		51	21		-	10	82	9	5	0	4				0
111		51	22		-	9	75	12	7	0	6	0	0		0
110		50	22		-	10	67	15	9	0	8	0	0		0				0
109		50	23		-	9	58	19	12	0	10	0	0		0				0
108		49	23		-	10	46	23	16	0	14	0	0		1				0
107		49	24		-	9	35	25	19	1	18	1	0		1				0
106		48	24		-	10	24	27	22	2	21	1	1		2				0
105		48	25		-	9	15	25	24	3	25	2	1	0	4	0	0		0		0
104		47	25		-	10	8	22	24	5	26	5	3	0	6	0	0		1		0		0
103		47	26		-	9	4	17	22	7	25	7	5	0	9	0	0		1	0	0		0
102		46	26		-	10	1	12	19	10	21	11	9	0	13	1	0		2	0	0		0	0
101		46	27		-	9	0	7	14	12	15	14	12	0	17	1	1		4	0	0		0
100		45	27		-	10	0	4	9	13	9	15	16	1	19	3	2	0	7	0	1		0	0
99		45	28		-	9	0	2	5	12	4	14	18	3	19	6	5	0	10	0	2	0	0	0
98		44	28		-	10		1	2	10	1	10	16	6	15	10	9	0	14	1	4	0	1	0	0	0
97		44	29		-	9		0	1	7	0	6	13	9	9	12	13	1	17	3	7	0	2	0	0	0
96		43	29		-	10		0	0	5	0	3	8	11	4	12	16	2	16	5	12	0	4	1	0	0	0
95		43	30		-	9		0	0	3	0	1	4	10	1	9	16	5	13	9	17	1	8	2	0	0	0
94		42	30		-	10		0	0	1	0	0	2	8	0	5	12	8	8	11	19	4	14	6	2	0	0	0
93		42	31		-	9		0	0	1		0	0	6	0	2	8	10	3	10	15	8	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
92		41	31		-	10				0		0	0	3	0	1	4	10	1	7	8	11	20	19	11	4	1	0	0
91		41	32		-	9				0		0	0	2		0	1	8	0	4	3	10	14	22	19	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
90		40	32		-	10				0		0	0	1		0	0	5	0	2	1	7	7	17	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
89		40	33		-	9				0			0	0		0	0	3	0	1	0	3	2	8	17	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
88		39	33		-	10				0				0		0	0	1		0	0	1	0	2	8	16	23	22	15	7	3	1	0	0
87		39	34		-	9				0				0			0	1		0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
86		38	34		-	10				0				0				0		0		0	0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
85		38	35		-	9				0				0				0		0		0	0	0	0	1	2	7	14	22	24	18	9	3	0	0
84		37	35		-	10								0				0				0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	15	23	25	17	8	2	0
83		37	36		-	9												0							0	0	0	1	3	8	17	25	25	15	5	1
82		36	36		-	10												0								0	0	0	1	3	10	21	28	24	11	2
81		35	36		-	11																					0	0	0	1	5	13	26	30	20	5
80		35	37		-	10																						0	0	0	2	7	19	32	28	10
79		34	37		-	11																							0	0	1	3	13	29	36	18
78		34	38		-	10																								0	0	1	7	23	40	28
77		34	39		-	9																								0	0	1	4	17	40	38
76		33	39		-	10																									0	0	2	11	37	49
75		33	40		-	9																										0	1	7	33	59
74		32	40		-	10																									0	0	0	4	28	68
73		32	41		-	9																											0	2	21	76
72		31	41		-	10																											0	1	16	83
71		31	42		-	9																												1	11	88
70		30	42		-	10																												0	8	91
69		30	43		-	9																												0	6	93
68		29	43		-	10																												0	4	96
67		29	44		-	9																													3	97
66		28	44		-	10																													2	98
65		28	45		-	9																													1	99
64		27	45		-	10																													0	100
63		27	46		-	9																													0	100
62		26	46		-	10																														100
61		25	46		-	11																													1	99
0	-60																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	2	4	2	4	2	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3