Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2014

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Toronto vs Montreal-4.8-0.5-0.3+4.3+4.6+5.1
-0.8*-0.1*-0.1+0.7+0.9+0.9
-0.5-0.1-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.6
Boston vs Philadelphia*-0.1*-0.2-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Washington vs Montreal-4.6*-0.2-0.4+4.2+4.6+4.8
-0.8-0.2-0.1+0.8+0.8+0.9
-0.5-0.0-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.5
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.4*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.4
+0.0*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus*-0.0-0.5*-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.1*+0.1-0.4*-0.3-0.3
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.2*-0.1*-0.2*+0.0*-0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
121-164In99.8%1001,226*
1205618-8In99.31000606*
1195518-9In99.7100937*
1185418-10In98.299011,308*
1175419-9In97.699101,971*
1165420-8In95.898112,877*
1155320-9In93.497214,038*
1145220-10In91.4962205,679*
1135221-9In86.5934307,625*
1125121-10In82.09154010,750*
1115122-9In75.38776014,199*
1105022-10In67.6839800018,545*
1095023-9In57.07613110023,892*
1084923-10In46.1691614010030,705*
1074924-9In35.260201901038,593*
1064824-10In24.25124231200046,978*
1054825-9In15.14027271400057,578*
1044725-10In8.13029313701068,618*
1034726-9100.0%3.7213033510010080,464*
1024626-10100.01.4142933814020093,605*
1014627-9100.00.48263013181400106,664*
1004527-1099.90.142224182227100120,541*
994528-999.80.02171821255102000133,719*
984428-1099.30.01121122259154100145,263*
974429-998.1No08622221419820000157,337*
964329-1095.2No05319161822134100167,136*
954330-989.0No031141021221882000173,626*
944230-1078.5No0101052119231461000179,621*
934231-962.7No1062181323211141000183,073*
924131-1045.1No003113819251893100183,455*
914132-928.3No0020941323241672000181,124*
904032-1015.4No010528182523135100176,264*
893932-117.1No0003031121262110300169,362*
883933-103.0No00201615252617710160,434*
873833-111.2No0100291927241340149,697*
863834-100.4No0000141324292081137,356*
853835-90.1No000027182927143125,505*
843735-100.0No000013122532216111,890*
833635-110.0No0000171933291098,607*
823636-100.0No000131330361786,213*
813637-9OutNo002825412573,347*
803537-10OutNo01519413462,584*
793538-9OutNo00214404452,227*
783438-10OutNo0019365443,263*
773439-9OutNo006316335,036*
763339-10OutNo004267127,794*
753340-9OutNo002217721,786*
743240-10OutNo01168316,891*
733241-9OutNo01128713,142*
723141-10OutNo009919,874*
713142-9OutNo06947,444*
703042-10OutNo04965,389*
693043-9OutNo3973,981*
682943-10OutNo2982,755*
672944-9OutNo1991,985*
662844-10OutNo1991,388*
652744-11OutNo00100982*
642745-10OutNo199649*
632746-9OutNo0100443*
622646-10OutNo0100285*
0-61OutNo100754*
Total:50.0%3.3%66666666666666663,839,080

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Montreal+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.9-1.0-1.1
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Montreal+0.9+0.1+0.0-0.9-1.0-1.0
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Florida-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Boston*-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-164100
1225717-81000
1215617-91000
1205618-89900
1195518-91000
1185418-1098101
1175419-998110
1165420-896211
1155320-993321
1145220-10915220
1135221-9867430
1125121-10829540
1115122-9751270600
1105022-1068159080000
1095023-9571913011000
1084923-1046231501400100
1074924-93525191181010
1064824-102426222211120000
1054825-91525243252140000
1044725-108222452643060010
1034726-9418228257501000100
1024626-10112191022118013102000
1014627-9071412151413017114000
1004527-10049139151611932070100
994528-9025124141831965010020000
984428-100121011016615109014140100
974429-90170613910121311728020000
964329-10005038114121621751204100
954330-9003014101916513917182000
944230-10001018051388111841461000
934231-90100502810310158191251000
924131-1000003013101781120191141000
914132-9000201804310142220114100
904032-100010050217716232012510000
893932-1100000300032817232113620000
883933-100002000102816222215731000
873833-1100100000271522221693100
863834-100000001271522231793100
853835-9000000127142224189300
843735-1000000012715232517720
833635-11000001381725251551
823636-1000001310202824112
813637-90015142530205
803537-100002720322811
793538-9001313293618
783438-100017234028
773439-90014174038
763339-10002113749
753340-90173359
743240-100042868
733241-9022176
723141-10011782
713142-9011287
703042-100891
693043-90793
682943-100496
672944-9298
662844-10298
652744-110199
642745-10199
632746-90100
622646-100100
0-61100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333