Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 57.1%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Calgary vs Vancouver+4.3+3.8+3.5-0.9-1.1-5.2
+0.8+0.6+0.6-0.3*-0.1-0.9
+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Edmonton vs Calgary-5.2-1.4-1.0+3.6+3.8+4.4
-0.9-0.2-0.2+0.6+0.7+0.8
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
St. Louis vs NY Rangers-0.3-0.6*-0.2*+0.1*-0.0+0.5
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim+0.5*-0.1*+0.1-0.5*-0.1-0.4
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Arizona vs Winnipeg*-0.1-0.5*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0+0.2
-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.3*-0.2*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
124-164InYes100291*
1235817-7In98.6%99172*
1225717-8InYes100121*
1215617-9In99.11000213*
1205618-8In98.29901328*
1195417-11In97.79911480*
1185418-10In97.39910716*
1175419-9In97.699001,088*
1165319-10In96.398111,523*
1155320-9In94.298112,095*
1145220-10In90.196213,078*
1135221-9In87.0953204,171*
1125121-10In81.0924405,576*
1115122-9In74.1886607,336*
1105022-10In65.88497009,537*
1095023-9In55.77811100012,305*
1084923-10In44.572151301015,764*
1074924-9In33.664181601019,686*
1064824-10In22.554232112023,659*
1054825-9In14.3452625130029,107*
1044725-10In7.43529292500034,488*
1034726-9In3.52630324801040,398*
1024626-10100.0%1.2183033611010047,086*
1014627-9100.00.31128321015020053,177*
1004527-10100.00.1625281520140060,263*
994528-999.90.0320231924371066,415*
984428-1099.8No21617222561120072,157*
974429-999.5No111102325101541077,882*
964329-1098.5No07622221419710082,300*
954330-996.2No0531917192212310086,304*
944230-1091.5No0311511222318720089,144*
934231-983.0No01010622212212410090,217*
924131-1070.4No107319162519820091,107*
914132-954.8No00411511232414510090,054*
904032-1038.6No00201161926211030087,614*
894033-923.9No010731224261761084,235*
883933-1013.4No0000417192824123079,772*
873934-96.7No000204132528197174,460*
863834-102.9No000101720302612268,706*
853835-91.3No0101413273219562,667*
843735-100.4No000028213427856,157*
833635-110.2No00000141532341449,746*
823636-100.1No00021028392143,388*
813536-110.0No00001622413037,458*
803537-10OutNo00316414031,434*
793538-9OutNo00212384826,378*
783438-10OutNo0017345721,797*
773338-11OutNo005296618,120*
763339-10OutNo03247414,056*
753340-9OutNo01188011,313*
743240-10OutNo0114858,792*
733241-9OutNo0010896,803*
723141-10OutNo007935,046*
713142-9OutNo06943,829*
703042-10OutNo04962,731*
692942-11OutNo3972,014*
682943-10OutNo3971,449*
672944-9OutNo2981,027*
662844-10OutNo199735*
652744-11OutNo0100520*
642745-10OutNo0100332*
0-63OutNo100823*
Total:57.1%3.3%777777777777771,919,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary vs Vancouver-0.9-0.8-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.1
Los Angeles vs San Jose*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Calgary+1.1+0.3+0.2-0.8-0.8-0.9
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Winnipeg+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-164100
1235817-7991
1225717-8100
1215617-99900
1205618-898101
1195417-1198111
1185418-1097210
1175419-998200
1165319-1096211
1155320-994311
1145220-1090621
1135221-9878320
1125121-1081114040
1115122-9741460600
1105022-106619907000
1095023-9562311010000
1084923-104427150120010
1074924-93430181151010
1064824-1023312122021200
1054825-91431224223103000
1044725-107272362362050000
1034726-93222192394070010
1024626-10117181219146010101000
1014627-90111316141810114202000
1004527-1006817820132154104000
994528-9034163191541683070100
984428-1022141161481213601012000
974429-911110101112817911234010
964329-100070671541912312771100
954330-90050331511613610121023100
944230-100031113011101161712662000
934231-900100100671531810121052000
924131-101006033161156181210520000
914132-90004111401132191412731000
904032-1000020011061185121614941000
894033-90100703012261318181252000
883933-1000000041070261420201472100
873934-9000020400271421221683100
863834-10000101000271421231793100
853835-9010100027152223178200
843735-10000000012716242417720
833635-11000000001381826241551
823636-10000001410212823112
813536-11000000015142630195
803537-100002821322710
793538-9001414303517
783438-100028254026
773338-110014174037
763339-1002123848
753340-900183358
743240-100052768
733241-90032275
723141-10021682
713142-911387
703042-10001090
692942-110693
682943-100594
672944-9496
662844-10298
652744-11199
642745-10199
632746-9100
622646-10199
0-61100
Total:343434343434343522333333333333