Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Boston vs Philadelphia*-0.1*-0.3-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.2
-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Buffalo vs Columbus+4.3+3.8+3.6-0.9-0.8-5.2
+0.8+0.7+0.6-0.2-0.3-0.9
+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.4*+0.1*+0.2*-0.2*-0.4-0.4
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Washington vs Montreal+0.2*+0.1*+0.0*-0.3-0.5*-0.1
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.3*+0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.2-0.3
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.2*-0.1*-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.3
Tampa Bay vs Florida+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
120-164InYes1001,078*
1195518-9In99.2%1000489*
1185519-8In99.110000700*
1175419-9In96.898011,033*
1165319-10In95.997111,545*
1155320-9In93.796222,244*
1145220-10In90.495223,022*
1135221-9In87.194434,057*
1125121-10In81.1906505,497*
1115122-9In74.9877607,390*
1105022-10In65.882108009,492*
1095023-9In55.175131200012,303*
1084923-10In44.268161501015,595*
1074924-9In33.85920180200019,479*
1064824-10In22.64924231300024,066*
1054825-9In14.23927282400028,930*
1044725-10In7.42929313701034,637*
1034726-9100.0%3.4212933610010040,717*
1024626-10100.01.3132933914020046,704*
1014627-9100.00.48253013191400053,630*
1004527-1099.90.14222417233710060,038*
994528-999.80.021618212551120066,504*
984428-1099.30.0112112325915410072,208*
974429-998.0No086222114198200078,462*
964329-1095.1No0531816182213410082,871*
954330-988.9No03114102122188200086,302*
944230-1078.0No0109521192315610088,875*
934231-962.5No010621713232112410090,907*
924131-1045.1No00311382025189310090,879*
914132-928.2No002094132324167200089,918*
904032-1015.4No01052718252213510087,481*
894033-97.5No000304112226201030084,534*
883933-103.1No00020161525261771080,015*
873833-111.1No010029202724134074,048*
863834-100.4No000014132429207168,809*
853734-110.2No000002719292713362,233*
843735-100.0No001412263221555,694*
833635-110.0No0000172033291049,035*
823636-100.0No000141431351643,034*
813536-110.0No0002926402437,410*
803537-10OutNo001520413331,532*
793538-9OutNo000315404226,512*
783438-10OutNo0019375321,762*
773338-11OutNo016316217,735*
763339-10OutNo004267014,278*
753340-9OutNo02217611,135*
743240-10OutNo0117828,997*
733241-9OutNo112876,750*
723141-10OutNo09905,246*
713142-9OutNo06943,802*
703042-10OutNo05952,888*
693043-9OutNo3972,133*
682943-10OutNo2981,446*
672843-11OutNo2981,031*
662844-10OutNo199747*
652845-9OutNo0100475*
642745-10OutNo199374*
0-63OutNo100832*
Total:50.0%3.3%66666666666666661,919,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Montreal*-0.0*+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.9-0.8-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.1
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.1*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1
Washington vs Montreal-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Boston-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0*+0.0*+0.0
Philadelphia vs New Jersey*-0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0*+0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120-164100
1195518-99900
1185519-899000
1175419-997201
1165319-1096211
1155320-994322
1145220-1090522
1135221-987643
1125121-108196500
1115122-975127600
1105022-1066161008000
1095023-95520130120000
1084923-104424160140010
1074924-9342520118102000
1064824-10232622222113000
1054825-91425243253240000
1044725-107222452653070010
1034726-9317227258601000100
1024626-10112181121129013102000
1014627-90713121515130171140000
1004527-10048138151611933070100
994528-902512414183196501002000
984428-100121011016715109014140100
974429-901706129912131163802000
964329-10004037114121621751204100
954330-9003014101916513917282000
944230-1000101805128811184146200
934231-90010050271031015819125100
924131-10000301410178112019114100
914132-90002018043101422201141000
904032-10001005021771723201251000
894033-9000030003281723211362000
883933-10000020010381723221472100
873833-1100100001381622221683100
863834-1000000001371522231793100
853734-11000000127152224178300
843735-10000012716242516720
833635-11000001381826251451
823636-10000001411212823102
813536-11000015142630195
803537-10002820322710
793538-9001414293517
783438-100018244026
773338-110015184136
763339-10002123848
753340-90183457
743240-100052966
733241-9022275
723141-10021781
713142-9011287
703042-100991
693043-90694
682943-100496
672843-11397
662844-10397
652845-90100
642745-10199
632645-110100
0-62100
Total:333333434342424244444333333333