Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat NY Islanders 3-0, playoff odds up 4.6 to 60.1%

4 points 2 0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 3 NY Islanders 0	+4.4		+1.0		+0.5
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	-0.5				-0.1
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	*-0.4				*-0.0
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-0.5+0.0+0.2-0.2-0.1+0.5				-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

123	-164						In		Yes		100																203	*
122		54	16		-	10	In		97.8	%	99	1															93	*
121		54	17		-	9	In		99.3		100																143	*
120		54	18		-	8	In		98.4		99		1														190	*
119		54	19		-	7	In		99.0		100																302	*
118		53	19		-	8	In		98.4		99	0	0														434	*
117		52	19		-	9	In		97.9		100	0	0														630	*
116		52	20		-	8	In		96.5		99	1	1														862	*
115		51	20		-	9	In		93.2		97	2	1														1,213	*
114		51	21		-	8	In		90.4		96	3	2														1,613	*
113		50	21		-	9	In		88.6		95	3	1														2,356	*
112		50	22		-	8	In		82.1		92	5	3		0												3,009	*
111		49	22		-	9	In		75.6		88	8	4														3,913	*
110		49	23		-	8	In		68.2		84	10	6		0												5,073	*
109		48	23		-	9	In		59.1		79	12	8	0	0												6,324	*
108		47	23		-	10	In		48.6		73	16	11	0	0		0										7,903	*
107		47	24		-	9	In		37.3		64	21	14	0	1		0										9,589	*
106		47	25		-	8	In		26.7		56	25	18	0	1		0	0									11,716	*
105		46	25		-	9	In		16.9		45	29	23	1	2	0	0										13,905	*
104		45	25		-	10	In		9.8		35	32	26	2	4	0	0	0									16,300	*
103		45	26		-	9	In		4.6		25	34	29	4	6	0	1	0									18,743	*
102		44	26		-	10	In		1.8		17	34	31	7	10	0	1	0									21,136	*
101		44	27		-	9	In		0.6		11	32	30	12	13	1	2	0									23,786	*
100		43	27		-	10	100.0	%	0.1		6	28	26	17	17	2	4	0	0								26,115	*
99		43	28		-	9	99.9		0.0		3	23	20	21	21	4	7	1	0	0							28,208	*
98		42	28		-	10	99.7		No		1	18	14	25	23	7	10	2	0	0							29,997	*
97		42	29		-	9	99.0		No		0	12	8	26	21	12	14	5	1	0							31,564	*
96		41	29		-	10	97.5		No		0	8	4	24	17	18	18	8	2	0	0	0					33,225	*
95		41	30		-	9	93.7		No		0	5	2	20	12	23	19	13	5	1	0	0	0				33,963	*
94		40	30		-	10	86.4		No		0	3	1	15	7	25	18	18	10	3	1	0	0				34,190	*
93		40	31		-	9	73.7		No			1	0	10	3	23	15	21	16	8	2	0	0	0			34,155	*
92		39	31		-	10	57.3		No			1	0	6	1	19	10	20	21	14	6	2	0	0	0		33,454	*
91		39	32		-	9	39.4		No			0	0	3	0	14	5	16	23	20	12	4	1	0	0		32,327	*
90		38	32		-	10	23.8		No			0		2	0	10	3	10	20	25	19	9	3	1	0		30,336	*
89		38	33		-	9	12.7		No			0		1	0	6	1	5	14	24	25	16	7	2	0	0	28,725	*
88		37	33		-	10	5.6		No			0		0		3	0	2	8	19	26	23	13	4	1	0	26,512	*
87		37	34		-	9	2.6		No			0		0		2	0	1	4	12	23	27	21	9	2	0	24,265	*
86		36	34		-	10	0.9		No					0		1	0	0	1	6	17	26	27	16	5	1	22,063	*
85		36	35		-	9	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	0	3	10	22	29	23	10	2	19,609	*
84		35	35		-	10	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	1	5	15	27	30	17	4	17,214	*
83		35	36		-	9	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	2	9	24	33	25	7	14,829	*
82		34	36		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	5	17	33	31	13	12,602	*
81		34	37		-	9	Out		No										0	0	0	2	11	28	38	20	10,547	*
80		33	37		-	10	Out		No										0	0	0	1	7	24	41	28	8,674	*
79		33	38		-	9	Out		No												0	0	3	18	42	36	7,191	*
78		32	38		-	10	Out		No												0	0	2	11	39	47	5,739	*
77		32	39		-	9	Out		No													0	1	8	34	57	4,603	*
76		31	39		-	10	Out		No														0	4	29	66	3,649	*
75		31	40		-	9	Out		No														0	3	24	73	2,738	*
74		30	40		-	10	Out		No														0	2	19	79	2,100	*
73		30	41		-	9	Out		No															1	14	85	1,655	*
72		30	42		-	8	Out		No															0	11	89	1,129	*
71		29	42		-	9	Out		No															0	9	91	784	*
70		29	43		-	8	Out		No															0	6	94	590	*
69		27	42		-	11	Out		No																2	98	407	*
68		28	44		-	8	Out		No																2	98	276	*
67		27	44		-	9	Out		No																1	99	210	*
66		26	44		-	10	Out		No																2	98	134	*
65		26	45		-	9	Out		No																1	99	88	*
4	-64						Out		No																	100	237	*

Total:							60.1	%	5.0	%	9	9	7	8	6	8	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	713,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 3 NY Islanders 0	-1.0
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	-0.1
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	+0.1
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	+0.0
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Carolina	-0.1+0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

123	-164						100
122		54	16		-	10	98	1	1
121		54	17		-	9	99	1
120		54	18		-	8	98	1			1
119		54	19		-	7	99	1
118		53	19		-	8	98	1	0		0
117		52	19		-	9	98	2	0		0
116		52	20		-	8	97	2	1		1
115		51	20		-	9	93	4	2		1
114		51	21		-	8	90	5	3		2
113		50	21		-	9	89	7	3		1
112		50	22		-	8	82	10	5	0	3				0
111		49	22		-	9	76	13	8		4
110		49	23		-	8	68	16	10	0	6	0			0
109		48	23		-	9	59	20	12	0	8	0	0		0
108		47	23		-	10	49	24	16	0	11	0	0		0				0
107		47	24		-	9	37	27	20	1	14	0	0		1				0
106		47	25		-	8	27	29	23	1	17	1	0		1	0			0		0
105		46	25		-	9	17	28	26	3	21	2	1		2	0	0		0
104		45	25		-	10	10	25	26	6	23	4	2		4	0	0		0		0
103		45	26		-	9	5	21	26	8	22	6	4	0	6	0	0		1		0
102		44	26		-	10	2	15	22	12	20	11	7	0	9	0	0		1		0
101		44	27		-	9	1	10	17	15	16	14	11	0	12	1	1	0	2		0
100		43	27		-	10	0	6	12	17	10	16	16	1	15	2	2		4	0	0		0
99		43	28		-	9	0	3	7	16	5	15	18	3	16	5	3	0	6	0	1	0	0	0
98		42	28		-	10		1	3	14	2	12	19	7	14	9	7	0	9	1	2	0	0	0
97		42	29		-	9		0	1	11	0	8	16	10	10	11	12	0	13	2	5	0	1	0
96		41	29		-	10		0	0	8	0	4	11	13	5	13	16	2	14	4	8	0	2	0	0	0
95		41	30		-	9		0	0	5	0	2	6	14	2	10	18	4	12	7	12	1	5	1	0	0	0
94		40	30		-	10		0	0	3	0	1	2	12	0	7	16	9	8	10	15	3	9	3	1	0	0
93		40	31		-	9			0	1		0	1	9	0	3	11	12	4	11	14	7	15	8	3	1	0	0
92		39	31		-	10				1		0	0	6	0	1	6	13	1	9	10	10	18	15	7	2	0	0	0
91		39	32		-	9				0		0	0	3		0	2	12	0	5	4	12	15	20	15	8	2	1	0	0
90		38	32		-	10				0			0	2		0	1	9	0	2	1	8	8	18	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
89		38	33		-	9				0				1		0	0	5		1	0	5	3	10	19	23	17	9	4	1	0	0
88		37	33		-	10				0				0			0	3		0	0	2	1	4	11	19	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
87		37	34		-	9				0				0			0	2		0	0	1	0	1	4	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	0	0
86		36	34		-	10								0				1		0		0	0	0	1	4	9	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0
85		36	35		-	9								0				0		0		0	0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
84		35	35		-	10								0				0				0			0	0	1	4	9	19	25	22	14	5	1	0
83		35	36		-	9												0				0				0	0	1	4	11	21	26	22	12	3	0
82		34	36		-	10												0									0	0	1	5	12	24	27	20	8	1
81		34	37		-	9																						0	0	2	7	16	27	28	16	4
80		33	37		-	10																						0	0	0	3	9	23	32	25	8
79		33	38		-	9																							0	0	1	5	15	32	32	14
78		32	38		-	10																								0	0	2	9	26	39	23
77		32	39		-	9																								0	0	1	6	20	40	33
76		31	39		-	10																										0	2	14	39	44
75		31	40		-	9																										0	2	9	35	55
74		30	40		-	10																											0	5	32	63
73		30	41		-	9																											0	4	22	74
72		30	42		-	8																												1	20	79
71		29	42		-	9																												1	14	85
70		29	43		-	8																												0	10	90
69		27	42		-	11																												0	6	94
68		28	44		-	8																												0	4	95
67		27	44		-	9																													4	96
66		26	44		-	10																													4	96
65		26	45		-	9																													2	98
4	-64																																			100

Total:							5	4	5	4	4	3	5	4	4	3	4	3	3	2	3	2	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2