Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat New Jersey 2-0, playoff odds up 4.2 to 49.5%

2 points 1 1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	+4.1		+0.6		+0.4
Florida 3 Detroit 2					+0.0
Minnesota 3 Winnipeg 2					*+0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 2					*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton vs Buffalo	+0.4-0.3+0.2-0.4-0.3-0.3				+0.1-0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-162						In		99.5	%	100																378	*
118		54	18		-	8	In		96.9		99	1															193	*
117		53	18		-	9	In		96.3		98	1	1														296	*
116		53	19		-	8	In		97.6		99		1														419	*
115		52	19		-	9	In		94.6		98	2	0														634	*
114		52	20		-	8	In		91.5		96	3	1														874	*
113		51	20		-	9	In		88.2		94	4	2														1,250	*
112		51	21		-	8	In		82.9		92	4	4		0												1,669	*
111		50	21		-	9	In		76.2		87	6	6		0												2,335	*
110		50	22		-	8	In		67.9		85	8	7		0												3,055	*
109		49	22		-	9	In		58.1		77	11	11	0	0												3,894	*
108		48	22		-	10	In		48.3		70	15	15	0	1		0										5,134	*
107		48	23		-	9	In		37.3		64	16	18	0	1		0										6,394	*
106		47	23		-	10	In		25.9		54	21	22	0	2		0										7,950	*
105		47	24		-	9	In		17.5		45	23	27	1	4		0	0									9,925	*
104		47	25		-	8	100.0	%	9.6		34	25	32	2	6	0	0	0	0								11,649	*
103		46	25		-	9	In		4.5		25	27	33	4	10	0	1	0									14,062	*
102		45	25		-	10	100.0		1.7		16	26	35	7	14	0	2	0	0								16,382	*
101		45	26		-	9	100.0		0.5		10	24	32	10	18	1	4	0	0								18,657	*
100		44	26		-	10	99.9		0.1		5	21	28	14	23	1	6	1	0								21,178	*
99		44	27		-	9	99.7		0.0		3	16	21	18	26	3	10	2	0	0							23,575	*
98		43	27		-	10	99.5		No		1	12	14	20	27	7	15	4	0	0							26,191	*
97		43	28		-	9	98.6		No		0	8	8	20	25	10	20	7	1	0	0						28,211	*
96		42	28		-	10	96.4		No		0	5	4	18	20	15	24	12	3	0	0						30,026	*
95		42	29		-	9	91.6		No		0	3	2	14	14	18	24	17	7	1	0	0					31,541	*
94		41	29		-	10	83.2		No			2	1	10	8	19	22	23	12	4	1	0	0				32,756	*
93		41	30		-	9	69.4		No			1	0	6	4	17	17	25	19	9	2	0	0	0			33,917	*
92		40	30		-	10	51.9		No			0	0	3	1	13	11	23	24	15	6	2	0	0			33,979	*
91		40	31		-	9	34.3		No			0		2	0	9	6	17	25	22	13	4	1	0	0		33,894	*
90		39	31		-	10	19.6		No			0		1	0	6	3	10	21	26	20	10	3	1	0	0	33,305	*
89		39	32		-	9	9.6		No			0		0	0	3	1	5	15	24	25	17	7	2	0	0	32,233	*
88		38	32		-	10	4.0		No					0	0	2	0	2	8	19	26	24	14	5	1	0	30,669	*
87		38	33		-	9	1.6		No					0	0	1	0	1	4	12	23	27	21	10	2	0	28,942	*
86		37	33		-	10	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	1	6	16	26	27	16	5	1	26,988	*
85		37	34		-	9	0.2		No					0		0		0	0	3	9	22	29	24	10	2	24,446	*
84		36	34		-	10	0.0		No					0		0			0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4	21,426	*
83		36	35		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	9	23	33	25	7	19,706	*
82		35	35		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	5	16	33	32	13	17,234	*
81		35	36		-	9	Out		No											0	0	2	11	28	38	20	14,893	*
80		34	36		-	10	Out		No												0	1	6	23	41	28	12,652	*
79		34	37		-	9	Out		No												0	0	3	17	42	38	10,425	*
78		33	37		-	10	Out		No													0	2	12	38	48	8,931	*
77		33	38		-	9	Out		No													0	1	7	34	58	7,137	*
76		32	38		-	10	Out		No													0	0	5	28	67	5,579	*
75		32	39		-	9	Out		No														0	3	23	74	4,484	*
74		31	39		-	10	Out		No														0	1	18	81	3,605	*
73		31	40		-	9	Out		No															1	15	84	2,810	*
72		31	41		-	8	Out		No															0	10	90	2,054	*
71		30	41		-	9	Out		No															0	7	92	1,562	*
70		30	42		-	8	Out		No															0	5	95	1,153	*
69		28	41		-	11	Out		No															0	4	96	883	*
68		28	42		-	10	Out		No																4	96	560	*
67		28	43		-	9	Out		No																2	98	475	*
66		27	43		-	10	Out		No																1	99	304	*
65		27	44		-	9	Out		No																1	99	193	*
62	-64						Out		No																	100	300	*
61		26	47		-	7	Out		No																2	98	46	*
2	-60						Out		No																	100	127	*

Total:							49.5	%	3.1	%	6	5	7	5	7	5	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	713,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	-0.8
Florida 3 Detroit 2	*-0.0
Chicago 1 Nashville 0 (so)	-0.0
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Buffalo	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-162						100
119		54	17		-	9	98	2
118		54	18		-	8	97	2	1
117		53	18		-	9	96	2	1		1
116		53	19		-	8	98	2			1
115		52	19		-	9	95	3	2	0	0
114		52	20		-	8	92	4	3		1
113		51	20		-	9	88	6	4		2
112		51	21		-	8	83	9	4		4				0
111		50	21		-	9	76	11	6		6				0
110		50	22		-	8	68	17	8		7	0			0
109		49	22		-	9	58	19	11	0	11	0	0		0
108		48	22		-	10	48	22	14	0	14	0	0		1				0
107		48	23		-	9	37	26	16	1	18	1	0		1				0
106		47	23		-	10	26	28	20	2	21	1	0		2				0
105		47	24		-	9	17	27	21	2	25	2	1		4	0			0		0
104		47	25		-	8	10	24	21	5	27	5	2		6	0	0		0		0		0
103		46	25		-	9	5	20	20	7	26	7	4	0	10	0	0		1		0
102		45	25		-	10	2	15	17	9	24	11	6	0	13	1	0		2		0		0
101		45	26		-	9	1	9	13	11	18	15	10	0	17	1	1		4	0	0		0
100		44	26		-	10	0	5	8	12	11	17	13	1	20	3	1	0	6	0	1		0
99		44	27		-	9	0	3	5	11	5	16	15	3	20	6	3	0	10	0	2		0	0
98		43	27		-	10		1	2	10	2	13	15	5	17	10	6	0	14	1	4	0	0	0
97		43	28		-	9		0	1	7	1	8	12	8	11	13	10	0	17	2	7	0	1	0	0
96		42	28		-	10		0	0	5	0	4	8	10	6	14	13	1	18	5	11	0	3	0	0
95		42	29		-	9		0	0	3	0	2	4	10	2	12	14	4	15	9	16	1	7	1	0	0
94		41	29		-	10			0	1		1	2	8	0	7	12	7	10	12	19	4	12	4	1	0	0
93		41	30		-	9			0	1		0	1	5	0	3	7	9	4	13	17	8	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
92		40	30		-	10				0		0	0	3	0	1	4	9	1	10	11	12	20	17	8	3	0	0	0	0
91		40	31		-	9				0			0	2		0	2	7	0	5	5	13	17	22	17	8	2	0	0	0	0
90		39	31		-	10				0			0	1		0	0	5	0	3	1	9	9	20	22	17	8	3	1	0	0
89		39	32		-	9				0				0		0	0	3	0	1	0	5	3	11	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		38	32		-	10								0		0	0	1		0	0	2	1	4	11	20	23	20	11	5	1	0	0
87		38	33		-	9								0		0	0	1		0	0	1	0	1	4	10	19	23	20	13	6	2	0	0
86		37	33		-	10								0				0		0		0	0	0	1	4	9	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
85		37	34		-	9								0			0	0				0		0	0	1	3	9	18	24	23	14	6	2	0	0
84		36	34		-	10								0				0							0	0	1	3	9	19	24	23	14	5	1	0
83		36	35		-	9												0								0	0	1	4	11	21	26	22	12	4	0
82		35	35		-	10																				0	0	0	1	5	13	23	28	20	8	2
81		35	36		-	9																						0	0	2	6	17	27	28	16	4
80		34	36		-	10																						0	0	0	3	10	22	32	25	8
79		34	37		-	9																								0	1	4	16	31	33	15
78		33	37		-	10																								0	0	2	10	26	39	23
77		33	38		-	9																								0	0	1	5	20	41	33
76		32	38		-	10																										0	3	13	39	44
75		32	39		-	9																										0	1	9	35	54
74		31	39		-	10																										0	0	5	30	65
73		31	40		-	9																											0	3	24	73
72		31	41		-	8																												2	18	81
71		30	41		-	9																											0	1	14	85
70		30	42		-	8																												1	10	90
69		28	41		-	11																												0	7	93
68		28	42		-	10																													5	95
67		28	43		-	9																												0	4	96
66		27	43		-	10																													2	98
65		27	44		-	9																													3	97
62	-64																																			100
61		26	47		-	7																													2	98
2	-60																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	4	3	3	2	4	3	3	2	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3