Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to Anaheim 2-3, playoff odds down 4.9 to 40.9%

0 points 0 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	-4.7		-0.7		-0.5
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	*-0.3
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	*-0.3				-0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 2	*-0.1
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1					+0.0
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0					+0.0
Minnesota 3 Winnipeg 2					*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-0.4-0.7-0.4+0.1*+0.2+0.5				-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Vancouver vs Carolina	+0.5+0.2-0.3-0.5-0.2-0.4				+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-160						In		Yes		100																120	*
119		55	16		-	9	In		98.5	%	99	1															67	*
118		55	17		-	8	In		Yes		100																69	*
117		54	17		-	9	In		95.9		97	1	1														145	*
116		54	18		-	8	In		96.1		100																181	*
115		53	18		-	9	In		94.8		97	1	2														309	*
114		52	18		-	10	In		91.6		97	1	2														405	*
113		52	19		-	9	In		87.6		94	3	2														630	*
112		52	20		-	8	In		82.6		91	5	4														877	*
111		51	20		-	9	In		76.7		88	7	5		0												1,276	*
110		51	21		-	8	In		67.6		83	10	7	0	0												1,757	*
109		50	21		-	9	In		59.8		78	11	10	0	0												2,338	*
108		50	22		-	8	In		47.8		71	16	13	0	1		0										3,090	*
107		49	22		-	9	In		37.3		63	20	16	0	1												3,855	*
106		49	23		-	8	In		27.1		55	23	20	1	2		0										5,070	*
105		48	23		-	9	In		16.6		43	28	25	1	3	0	0										6,384	*
104		48	24		-	8	In		9.9		35	29	28	2	5	0	0	0									7,972	*
103		47	24		-	9	In		4.2		24	32	31	4	8	0	1	0									9,751	*
102		46	24		-	10	In		1.9		17	31	32	8	11	0	1	0									11,489	*
101		46	25		-	9	100.0	%	0.5		10	29	30	12	15	1	3	0	0								13,894	*
100		45	25		-	10	100.0		0.1		5	25	26	17	20	2	5	1	0								16,306	*
99		45	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		3	20	20	21	23	4	8	1	0								18,932	*
98		44	26		-	10	99.6		0.0		1	15	14	24	24	7	12	3	0	0							21,151	*
97		44	27		-	9	98.8		No		0	11	8	24	22	12	16	5	1	0	0						23,601	*
96		43	27		-	10	96.9		No		0	7	4	22	17	18	20	10	3	0	0						26,043	*
95		43	28		-	9	92.7		No		0	4	2	17	12	22	21	15	6	1	0	0	0				28,218	*
94		42	28		-	10	83.8		No		0	2	1	12	7	23	19	20	11	4	1	0	0				29,721	*
93		42	29		-	9	70.5		No			1	0	8	3	21	15	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0		31,993	*
92		41	29		-	10	54.2		No			1	0	5	1	17	10	21	22	15	6	2	0	0			33,049	*
91		41	30		-	9	35.8		No			0	0	3	0	12	5	15	24	22	12	5	1	0	0		33,974	*
90		40	30		-	10	21.2		No			0	0	1	0	8	2	10	20	25	20	10	3	1	0		34,279	*
89		40	31		-	9	10.6		No			0		1	0	5	1	5	14	24	25	17	8	2	0	0	33,793	*
88		39	31		-	10	4.9		No			0		0		2	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	5	1	0	33,297	*
87		39	32		-	9	2.0		No					0		1	0	1	3	11	22	27	21	10	2	0	32,441	*
86		38	32		-	10	0.7		No					0		1	0	0	1	6	15	26	27	17	6	1	30,645	*
85		38	33		-	9	0.3		No					0		0		0	1	2	9	21	30	24	11	2	28,652	*
84		37	33		-	10	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	1	5	15	27	30	18	4	26,737	*
83		37	34		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	9	22	33	26	8	24,350	*
82		36	34		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	4	16	32	33	14	21,827	*
81		36	35		-	9	0.0		No							0				0	0	2	10	28	38	21	19,507	*
80		35	35		-	10	Out		No											0	0	1	6	22	41	30	17,201	*
79		35	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	3	16	41	39	14,892	*
78		34	36		-	10	Out		No												0	0	2	11	39	48	12,628	*
77		34	37		-	9	Out		No													0	1	7	34	58	10,661	*
76		33	37		-	10	Out		No														0	4	29	67	8,699	*
75		33	38		-	9	Out		No														0	3	23	74	6,948	*
74		32	38		-	10	Out		No														0	2	18	80	5,714	*
73		32	39		-	9	Out		No														0	1	14	85	4,546	*
72		31	39		-	10	Out		No															0	10	89	3,696	*
71		31	40		-	9	Out		No															0	8	92	2,709	*
70		30	40		-	10	Out		No															0	7	93	2,108	*
69		30	41		-	9	Out		No																3	97	1,634	*
68		29	41		-	10	Out		No																3	97	1,162	*
67		29	42		-	9	Out		No																2	98	846	*
66		28	42		-	10	Out		No																0	100	569	*
65		28	43		-	9	Out		No																1	99	420	*
64		27	43		-	10	Out		No																1	99	287	*
63		26	43		-	11	Out		No																0	100	201	*
0	-62						Out		No																	100	424	*

Total:							40.9	%	1.8	%	4	5	4	6	5	6	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	9	713,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	+1.0
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	-0.1
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	+0.0
Washington 3 NY Islanders 0	*-0.0
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	+0.0
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	-0.0
Ottawa 5 Montreal 6 (ot)	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Carolina	-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		55	16		-	9	99		1
118		55	17		-	8	100
117		54	17		-	9	96	1	1		1
116		54	18		-	8	96	4
115		53	18		-	9	95	3	1		2
114		52	18		-	10	92	5	1		2
113		52	19		-	9	88	7	3		2
112		52	20		-	8	83	9	5		4
111		51	20		-	9	77	12	7		5				0
110		51	21		-	8	68	16	10		7		0		0
109		50	21		-	9	60	18	11	0	10	0	0		0
108		50	22		-	8	48	23	15	0	12	0	0		1				0
107		49	22		-	9	37	26	19	1	16	1	0		1
106		49	23		-	8	27	27	21	1	19	1	1		2	0			0
105		48	23		-	9	17	26	25	3	23	2	1		3	0	0		0
104		48	24		-	8	10	25	25	4	24	4	2		5	0	0		0		0
103		47	24		-	9	4	20	24	8	24	7	4	0	8	0	0		1	0	0
102		46	24		-	10	2	15	20	10	22	10	8	0	11	0	0		1		0
101		46	25		-	9	0	9	16	13	16	14	12	0	14	1	1		3		0		0
100		45	25		-	10	0	5	10	15	10	16	16	1	17	3	2		5	0	1		0
99		45	26		-	9	0	3	6	14	5	15	18	3	18	5	4	0	8	0	1		0
98		44	26		-	10	0	1	3	12	2	12	18	6	15	8	7	0	12	1	3	0	0	0
97		44	27		-	9		0	1	9	0	7	15	10	10	12	12	0	14	2	5	0	1	0	0
96		43	27		-	10		0	0	6	0	4	10	12	5	13	16	2	16	4	9	0	3	0	0
95		43	28		-	9		0	0	4	0	2	5	12	2	10	17	4	13	8	14	1	6	1	0	0	0
94		42	28		-	10		0	0	2		1	2	10	0	6	15	8	9	11	17	3	11	4	1	0	0
93		42	29		-	9			0	1		0	1	8	0	3	10	11	4	11	16	7	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
92		41	29		-	10			0	1		0	0	5	0	1	5	12	1	9	10	10	19	16	8	2	0	0	0
91		41	30		-	9				0		0	0	2	0	0	2	10	0	5	4	11	16	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
90		40	30		-	10				0		0	0	1		0	1	7	0	2	1	8	9	19	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
89		40	31		-	9				0			0	1		0	0	4	0	1	0	4	3	10	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		39	31		-	10				0				0			0	2		0	0	2	1	4	11	19	23	19	12	5	1	0	0
87		39	32		-	9								0			0	1		0	0	1	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0
86		38	32		-	10								0				1		0		0	0	0	1	4	9	17	23	21	14	7	2	0	0
85		38	33		-	9								0				0				0		0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	14	6	2	0	0
84		37	33		-	10								0				0				0		0	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	23	14	5	1	0
83		37	34		-	9												0							0	0	0	1	4	10	20	26	22	12	4	0
82		36	34		-	10																				0	0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	1
81		36	35		-	9												0									0	0	0	2	6	16	27	28	16	4
80		35	35		-	10																						0	0	1	3	9	22	32	25	8
79		35	36		-	9																							0	0	1	5	15	31	34	15
78		34	36		-	10																								0	0	2	10	26	39	24
77		34	37		-	9																									0	1	5	20	41	34
76		33	37		-	10																									0	0	2	13	39	45
75		33	38		-	9																										0	1	9	35	54
74		32	38		-	10																										0	1	6	28	65
73		32	39		-	9																											0	3	25	72
72		31	39		-	10																											0	2	18	80
71		31	40		-	9																											0	1	14	85
70		30	40		-	10																												0	12	88
69		30	41		-	9																												0	7	93
68		29	41		-	10																												0	5	95
67		29	42		-	9																													4	96
66		28	42		-	10																													1	99
65		28	43		-	9																													1	99
64		27	43		-	10																													1	99
63		26	43		-	11																													0	100
62		26	44		-	10																														100
61		26	45		-	9																													1	99
0	-60																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	3	3	3	2	3	2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5