Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to Dallas 1-2, playoff odds down 5.3 to 51.3%

0 points 0 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 1 Dallas 2	-5.3		-0.9		-0.5
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	-0.5				-0.0
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	+0.4
Columbus 4 San Jose 1					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton vs Buffalo	-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-162						In		Yes		100																203	*
119		56	18		-	7	In		99.0	%	99	1															101	*
118		55	18		-	8	In		97.3		99		1														149	*
117		54	18		-	9	In		99.6		100	0															226	*
116		54	19		-	8	In		94.1		97	2	1														321	*
115		53	19		-	9	In		94.7		97	2	1														507	*
114		53	20		-	8	In		92.3		96	3	1														699	*
113		53	21		-	7	In		87.5		94	4	3														1,034	*
112		52	21		-	8	In		82.4		91	5	4		0												1,332	*
111		51	21		-	9	In		77.9		89	6	5	0	0												1,790	*
110		50	21		-	10	In		69.5		86	8	6		0												2,390	*
109		50	22		-	9	In		58.4		79	11	10	0	0												3,170	*
108		50	23		-	8	In		49.5		73	14	12	0	1												4,125	*
107		49	23		-	9	In		37.8		65	17	16	0	1												5,363	*
106		48	23		-	10	In		26.4		55	23	20	0	2		0										6,803	*
105		48	24		-	9	In		16.2		46	25	25	1	3	0	0										8,171	*
104		47	24		-	10	In		9.2		37	27	28	2	5	0	0	0									10,121	*
103		47	25		-	9	In		4.6		27	30	32	4	7	0	1	0									12,283	*
102		46	25		-	10	In		1.8		18	30	34	6	11	0	1	0									14,344	*
101		46	26		-	9	100.0	%	0.6		12	28	32	10	15	1	2	0	0								16,644	*
100		45	26		-	10	100.0		0.2		7	25	29	14	20	1	4	0	0								18,684	*
99		45	27		-	9	100.0		0.0		3	21	24	18	23	3	7	1	0	0							21,507	*
98		44	27		-	10	99.8		0.0		2	16	18	21	26	5	11	2	0	0							24,063	*
97		44	28		-	9	99.5		No		1	11	11	23	26	9	15	4	0	0	0						26,292	*
96		43	28		-	10	98.6		No		0	7	6	21	23	14	20	7	1	0	0						28,671	*
95		43	29		-	9	96.3		No		0	5	3	18	17	18	23	12	3	0	0		0				30,241	*
94		42	29		-	10	91.9		No		0	3	1	14	12	21	23	18	7	1	0	0					31,610	*
93		42	30		-	9	83.8		No			1	0	10	7	21	21	23	12	4	1	0	0				33,012	*
92		41	30		-	10	71.3		No			1	0	6	3	19	17	25	19	8	2	0	0				33,202	*
91		41	31		-	9	55.7		No			0	0	4	1	15	11	24	24	14	5	1	0				33,964	*
90		40	31		-	10	39.1		No			0	0	2	0	11	6	19	27	21	10	3	0	0			33,951	*
89		40	32		-	9	24.4		No			0		1	0	7	3	13	25	26	17	6	1	0			32,935	*
88		39	32		-	10	13.9		No			0		0	0	4	1	8	20	28	23	11	3	0			32,121	*
87		39	33		-	9	7.0		No					0	0	2	1	4	13	26	28	19	6	1			30,146	*
86		38	33		-	10	3.1		No					0		1	0	2	8	20	30	26	12	2			28,605	*
85		38	34		-	9	1.4		No					0	0	1	0	1	4	14	27	31	18	4			26,084	*
84		37	34		-	10	0.4		No							0	0	0	2	8	22	33	26	8			23,953	*
83		37	35		-	9	0.2		No							0		0	1	4	16	32	33	13			21,725	*
82		36	35		-	10	0.0		No							0	0	0	0	2	10	28	38	21			19,358	*
81		36	36		-	9	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	6	23	41	29			16,865	*
80		35	36		-	10	Out		No										0	0	4	17	42	37			14,683	*
79		35	37		-	9	Out		No											0	2	11	40	47			12,299	*
78		34	37		-	10	Out		No										0		1	8	34	57			10,420	*
77		34	38		-	9	Out		No												0	4	29	66			8,490	*
76		33	38		-	10	Out		No											0	0	3	25	72			7,110	*
75		33	39		-	9	Out		No												0	2	19	80			5,575	*
74		32	39		-	10	Out		No												0	1	15	84			4,327	*
73		32	40		-	9	Out		No												0	0	11	88			3,541	*
72		31	40		-	10	Out		No													0	7	93			2,729	*
71		31	41		-	9	Out		No													0	6	94			2,174	*
70		30	41		-	10	Out		No													0	5	95			1,547	*
69		29	41		-	11	Out		No														2	98			1,115	*
68		29	42		-	10	Out		No														2	98			807	*
67		29	43		-	9	Out		No														1	99			574	*
66		29	44		-	8	Out		No														1	99			426	*
0	-65						Out		No															100			958	*

Total:							51.3	%	2.5	%	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	9			713,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 1 Dallas 2	+1.1
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	-0.0
Chicago 1 Nashville 0 (so)	*+0.0
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	+0.0
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	*+0.0
Washington 3 NY Islanders 0	*-0.0
Vancouver 2 Calgary 1	*-0.0
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs Carolina	+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-162						100
119		56	18		-	7	99		1
118		55	18		-	8	97	2			1
117		54	18		-	9	100		0
116		54	19		-	8	94	2	2		1
115		53	19		-	9	95	3	2		1
114		53	20		-	8	92	4	3		1
113		53	21		-	7	88	6	4		3
112		52	21		-	8	82	9	5		4				0
111		51	21		-	9	78	11	6		5		0		0
110		50	21		-	10	70	16	8	0	6	0			0
109		50	22		-	9	58	21	11	0	10	0	0		0
108		50	23		-	8	49	23	14	0	12	0	0		1
107		49	23		-	9	38	28	17	1	16	0	0		1
106		48	23		-	10	26	29	22	1	19	1	0		2				0
105		48	24		-	9	16	30	22	3	23	3	1		3		0		0
104		47	24		-	10	9	28	23	4	24	4	2		5	0	0		0		0
103		47	25		-	9	5	22	22	8	23	8	3	0	7	0	0		1		0
102		46	25		-	10	2	16	19	11	22	12	6	0	10	1	0		1		0
101		46	26		-	9	1	11	15	14	16	16	9	0	14	1	1		2	0	0		0
100		45	26		-	10	0	6	10	15	10	19	13	1	16	4	1		4	0	0		0
99		45	27		-	9	0	3	5	15	5	19	15	3	17	7	3		7	0	1		0	0
98		44	27		-	10	0	2	3	13	2	16	15	6	14	12	5	0	10	1	2	0	0	0
97		44	28		-	9		1	1	10	1	10	12	11	10	16	9	1	13	3	4	0	0	0	0
96		43	28		-	10		0	0	7	0	6	8	13	5	18	12	2	14	6	7	0	1	0	0
95		43	29		-	9		0	0	5		3	4	14	2	16	13	5	12	11	10	1	3	1	0		0
94		42	29		-	10		0	0	3	0	1	2	13	0	11	12	9	8	15	14	4	6	2	0	0
93		42	30		-	9			0	1		0	1	9	0	7	8	13	4	18	13	10	10	4	1	0	0
92		41	30		-	10				1		0	0	6	0	3	4	15	1	16	8	17	13	9	4	1	0	0	0
91		41	31		-	9				0		0	0	4		1	2	13	0	11	4	20	12	15	10	5	2	0	0	0
90		40	31		-	10				0		0		2		0	1	10	0	6	1	18	7	14	16	13	7	3	1	0	0	0
89		40	32		-	9				0				1		0	0	7	0	3	0	13	2	8	16	19	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
88		39	32		-	10				0				0		0	0	4		1	0	8	1	3	9	16	21	18	11	5	1	0	0		0
87		39	33		-	9								0		0	0	2		1		4	0	1	3	9	17	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
86		38	33		-	10								0				1		0		2		0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0
85		38	34		-	9								0		0		1		0		1		0	0	1	3	9	17	23	23	14	6	2	0	0
84		37	34		-	10												0		0		0		0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	23	14	5	1	0
83		37	35		-	9												0				0				0	0	1	4	10	20	26	22	12	4	0
82		36	35		-	10												0		0		0					0	0	1	4	12	23	27	21	9	2
81		36	36		-	9												0				0						0	0	2	7	16	27	29	16	4
80		35	36		-	10																							0	1	3	10	22	32	25	8
79		35	37		-	9																							0	0	1	5	16	31	33	14
78		34	37		-	10																								0	0	2	10	26	38	24
77		34	38		-	9																									0	1	5	20	40	34
76		33	38		-	10																									0	0	3	14	40	43
75		33	39		-	9																								0		0	1	9	35	55
74		32	39		-	10																										0	1	5	29	65
73		32	40		-	9																											0	3	25	72
72		31	40		-	10																												2	17	80
71		31	41		-	9																											0	1	14	85
70		30	41		-	10																												0	10	89
69		29	41		-	11																												1	7	93
68		29	42		-	10																												0	5	94
67		29	43		-	9																													3	97
66		29	44		-	8																													3	97
65		28	44		-	9																													1	99
64		27	44		-	10																													1	99
0	-63																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4