The Tickle Monster Playoff Chances 2014
Beat London 257.28-224.7, playoff odds up 15.1 to 49.5%
2-1-0 .667
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tickle 257.28 London 224.7 | +11.6 | +1.3 | ||
| Wacky 286.1 Thompsons 269.4 | -0.4 | -0.0 | ||
| MACHO 265.73 Ginger Army 279.87 | +0.3 | |||
| Pollos 266.45 Glaurung 205 | +0.3 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Badgers vs Tickle | -13.5*+0.6+13.0 | -1.3+0.0+1.3 | ||
| Thompsons vs Rabbits | +0.6*+0.7-0.5 | |||
| Panuckers vs Gators | -0.3*-1.1+0.4 | -0.0*-0.1+0.0 | ||
| Dez vs MACHO | +0.3*+2.0-0.3 | +0.0*+0.1-0.0 | ||
| Geese vs Spectral | +0.2*+0.5-0.2 | +0.0*+0.1-0.0 | ||
| Plax vs Pollos | +0.2*+1.8-0.2 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Tickle finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Count | |||
| 11 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | In | 98 | 2 | 11,394 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | In | 97 | 3 | 61 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | 86 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 96,706 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | In | 73 | 26 | 2 | 596 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | In | 52 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 373,267 | |||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | 29 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2,086 | |||||||||||||
| 8 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 99.9 | % | 10 | 30 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 844,116 | ||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | 50 | 50 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 99.2 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4,035 | ||||||||||
| 7 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 80.6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,227,891 | ||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 83.3 | 17 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 17 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 43.1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4,852 | |||||||||
| 6 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 24 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,188,193 | |||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | Out | 50 | 25 | 25 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 31 | 27 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3,736 | |||||||||
| 5 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 763,874 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | Out | 33 | 33 | 33 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | Out | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 35 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 1,819 | ||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 31 | 12 | 316,171 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | Out | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | Out | 3 | 16 | 45 | 36 | 502 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 57 | 76,530 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | Out | 15 | 85 | 60 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 8 | 92 | 8,541 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 49.5 | % | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4,924,448 | |||||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Tickle 257.28 London 224.7 | -2.6 | |
| Wacky 286.1 Thompsons 269.4 | +0.0 | |
| Abby's 289.85 TDs 234.4 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Badgers vs Tickle | +2.6+0.1-2.5 | |
| Panuckers vs Gators | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | |
| TDs vs Ra's al Ghul | +0.0*+0.2-0.0 | |
| Cheyenne vs End Stags | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | |
| Tampa Terror vs Sanchize | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | |
| Jadeveon vs MegaTrob | +0.0*-0.2-0.0 | |
| Dez vs MACHO | -0.0*-0.2+0.0 | |
| Cap Challenged vs Abby's | -0.0*+0.4+0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 11 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 91 | 9 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 85 | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 61 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 37 | 43 | 17 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 15 | 31 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 25 | 75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 26 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 33 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 29 | 11 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 30 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 59 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:22 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
