Plaxidentally Shot Myself Playoff Chances 2014 50/50
Beat Geese 274.68-237, playoff odds up 11.6 to 68.9%
3-0-0 1.000
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Plax 274.68 Geese 237 | +12.2 | +1.3 | ||
| MACHO 265.73 Ginger Army 279.87 | +0.3 | |||
| Pollos 266.45 Glaurung 205 | +0.2 | +0.0 | ||
| Wacky 286.1 Thompsons 269.4 | -0.2 | -0.0 | ||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Plax vs Pollos | +11.5*+4.6-11.5 | +1.2+0.5-1.2 | ||
| Thompsons vs Rabbits | +0.4*+1.7-0.4 | +0.0*+0.1-0.0 | ||
| Geese vs Spectral | +0.2*+2.9-0.2 | +0.0*+0.2-0.0 | ||
| Panuckers vs Gators | -0.2*-1.7+0.2 | -0.0*-0.2+0.0 | ||
| Dez vs MACHO | +0.2*+1.4-0.2 | |||
| Badgers vs Tickle | +0.0*-0.1-0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Plax finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Count | |||
| 11.5 | -12 | In | 100 | 3,249 | * | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | 99 | 1 | 28,208 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | In | 100 | 185 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | In | 92 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 112,294 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | 89 | 11 | 0 | 655 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | In | 59 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 262,649 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | 33 | 33 | 33 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | In | 44 | 43 | 12 | 1 | 1,268 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 99.9 | % | 11 | 29 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 394,742 | ||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | In | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 99.6 | 3 | 16 | 34 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1,507 | |||||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 73.9 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 394,703 | ||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 46.1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 31 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1,296 | ||||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 262,621 | |||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | Out | 50 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 606 | |||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 112,437 | |||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | Out | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | Out | 1 | 4 | 16 | 35 | 30 | 14 | 1 | 166 | |||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 40 | 27 | 28,079 | ||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | Out | 11 | 37 | 53 | 19 | |||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 3 | 21 | 76 | 3,309 | |||||||||||||||
| Total: | 68.9 | % | 21 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1,608,000 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Plax 274.68 Geese 237 | -2.5 | |
| MACHO 265.73 Ginger Army 279.87 | -0.0 | |
| Staff 265.68 Cheyenne 208.19 | +0.0 | |
| Professor 236 Jadeveon 301.43 | *+0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Plax vs Pollos | -2.4-0.8+2.4 | |
| Geese vs Spectral | -0.0-0.4+0.0 | |
| Cheyenne vs End Stags | -0.0*-0.5+0.0 | |
| TDs vs Ra's al Ghul | +0.0*+0.3-0.0 | |
| Jadeveon vs MegaTrob | +0.0*-0.2-0.0 | |
| Thompsons vs Rabbits | -0.0*-0.3+0.0 | |
| Panuckers vs Gators | +0.0*+0.4-0.0 | |
| Tampa Terror vs Sanchize | -0.0*-0.6+0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 12 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 100 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 96 | 4 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 92 | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 60 | 34 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 22 | 36 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 33 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 9 | 26 | 36 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 26 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 25 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 25 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 24 | 14 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 16 | 5 | 53 | 11 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 37 | 43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:22 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
