Plaxidentally Shot Myself Playoff Chances 2014
Beat Geese 274.68-237, playoff odds up 17.4 to 79.1%
3-0-0 1.000
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Plax 274.68 Geese 237 | +12.2 | +1.2 | ||
| Wacky 286.1 Thompsons 269.4 | -0.4 | |||
| MACHO 265.73 Ginger Army 279.87 | +0.4 | |||
| Pollos 266.45 Glaurung 205 | +0.3 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Plax vs Pollos | +8.9*+1.7-9.9 | +0.9+0.3-1.0 | ||
| Thompsons vs Rabbits | +0.4*-0.4-0.4 | |||
| Panuckers vs Gators | -0.2*+0.8+0.3 | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | ||
| Dez vs MACHO | +0.3*+1.7-0.2 | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | ||
| Geese vs Spectral | +0.1*+1.2-0.1 | +0.0*+0.2-0.0 | ||
| Badgers vs Tickle | +0.0*+0.1-0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Plax finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Count | |||
| 11.5 | -12 | In | 100 | 22,616 | * | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | 99 | 1 | 0 | 163,415 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | In | 98 | 2 | 948 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | In | 91 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 539,027 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 1 | - | 2 | In | 100 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | 85 | 15 | 1 | 2,768 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | In | 57 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,036,248 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | 67 | 33 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | In | 39 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4,499 | |||||||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 99.9 | % | 11 | 29 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,277,175 | ||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | In | 30 | 40 | 20 | 10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 99.5 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4,669 | ||||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 76.6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,050,492 | ||||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 78.6 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 21 | 21 | 14 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 41.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 3,006 | |||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 572,860 | |||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | Out | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 28 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1,246 | |||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 199,883 | ||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | Out | 1 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 330 | |||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 36 | 16 | 41,084 | |||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | Out | 4 | 20 | 52 | 24 | 25 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 66 | 4,116 | ||||||||||||||
| Total: | 79.1 | % | 29 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4,924,448 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Plax 274.68 Geese 237 | -2.4 | |
| MACHO 265.73 Ginger Army 279.87 | -0.0 | |
| Wacky 286.1 Thompsons 269.4 | +0.0 | |
| Ra's al Ghul 232.45 End Stags 298 | +0.0 | |
| Staff 265.68 Cheyenne 208.19 | +0.0 | |
| Professor 236 Jadeveon 301.43 | +0.0 | |
| Abby's 289.85 TDs 234.4 | -0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Plax vs Pollos | -1.9-0.5+2.1 | |
| Dez vs MACHO | -0.0-0.2+0.0 | |
| TDs vs Ra's al Ghul | +0.0+0.1-0.1 | |
| Cheyenne vs End Stags | -0.1+0.0+0.0 | |
| Tampa Terror vs Sanchize | -0.1*+0.1+0.0 | |
| Thompsons vs Rabbits | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | |
| Geese vs Spectral | -0.0*-0.2+0.0 | |
| Cap Challenged vs Abby's | +0.0*+0.1-0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 12 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 99 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 99 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 92 | 8 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 85 | 14 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 60 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 42 | 41 | 15 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 14 | 31 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 22 | 33 | 33 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 3 | 15 | 30 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 20 | 10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 7 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 32 | 28 | 24 | 12 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 36 | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:22 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
