The Bearphins Playoff Chances 2014
Beat Sanchize 269.52-215, playoff odds up 16.8 to 57.4%
2-1-0 .667
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Sanchize 215 Bearphins 269.52 | +12.5 | +1.3 | ||
| Staff 265.68 Cheyenne 208.19 | -0.4 | |||
| Professor 236 Jadeveon 301.43 | -0.4 | -0.0 | ||
| Ra's al Ghul 232.45 End Stags 298 | -0.3 | |||
| 12th Man 274.3 KC_Love 220.3 | -0.2 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Bearphins vs 12th Man | +12.2*-0.9-14.2 | +1.1+0.0-1.2 | ||
| TDs vs Ra's al Ghul | -0.8*+1.6+1.0 | -0.0*+0.1+0.1 | ||
| Tampa Terror vs Sanchize | +0.6*-0.1-0.5 | |||
| Cheyenne vs End Stags | +0.6*-0.1-0.3 | +0.1-0.1-0.0 | ||
| Jadeveon vs MegaTrob | -0.4*+0.9+0.4 | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | ||
| Cap Challenged vs Abby's | +0.3*-2.2-0.4 | +0.0*-0.1-0.0 | ||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Bearphins finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Count | |||
| 11 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | In | 96 | 4 | 0 | 25,140 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | In | 95 | 5 | 152 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | 77 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 180,220 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | In | 61 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1,028 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 100.0 | % | 33 | 44 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 578,447 | |||||||||||
| 6 | - | 1 | - | 2 | In | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | 14 | 40 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2,886 | ||||||||||||
| 8 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 99.4 | 4 | 18 | 32 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,076,558 | ||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | 50 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 96.9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 29 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 4,574 | ||||||||||
| 7 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 69.6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 27 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,281,996 | |||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 88.9 | 44 | 44 | 11 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 28.8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4,564 | |||||||||
| 6 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,014,333 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | Out | 33 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2,860 | |||||||||
| 5 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 532,677 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | Out | 25 | 50 | 25 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | Out | 0 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1,146 | ||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 179,203 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | Out | 50 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | Out | 2 | 13 | 33 | 40 | 13 | 283 | |||||||||||||
| 3 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 42 | 33 | 34,787 | |||||||||||||
| 2 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | Out | 37 | 63 | 27 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 2 | 21 | 77 | 3,543 | |||||||||||||||
| Total: | 57.4 | % | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4,924,448 | |||||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Sanchize 215 Bearphins 269.52 | -2.6 | |
| Professor 236 Jadeveon 301.43 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 9/25 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Bearphins vs 12th Man | -2.2-0.0+2.6 | |
| Panuckers vs Gators | +0.0-0.3-0.0 | |
| Jadeveon vs MegaTrob | +0.0-0.2-0.0 | |
| TDs vs Ra's al Ghul | +0.0*-0.1-0.1 | |
| Cheyenne vs End Stags | -0.0*+0.2+0.0 | |
| Dez vs MACHO | -0.0*+0.2+0.0 | |
| Geese vs Spectral | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | |
| Plax vs Pollos | +0.0*+0.2-0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 11 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 94 | 6 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 89 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 44 | 37 | 16 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 16 | 31 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 25 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 33 | 22 | 22 | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 17 | 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 25 | 25 | 50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 26 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 32 | 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 4 | 22 | 44 | 30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:22 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
