Trophy Sport Title Chances Fall2010-11

Did not play, title odds down 0.7 to 17.2%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.6
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.2
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	-4.5		-4.7		-0.9
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.1		-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-1.4+1.3+0.5		-1.4+1.3+0.5		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-1.2+1.3+1.0		-1.2+1.3+1.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.7+0.5+0.6		-0.7+0.5+0.6		-0.0+0.1+0.0

Chances based on how well the Trophy Sport finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	7	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	100.0	%	100	0									17,761
22	6	-	1	-	0	98.6		98.6		99	1	0								68,032
21	6	-	0	-	1	91.1		91.1		91	8	1	0							79,866
20	5	-	2	-	0	88.3		88.3		88	10	1	0							119,710
19	5	-	1	-	1	72.4		72.4		72	20	7	0	0						279,834
18	5	-	0	-	2	45.6		45.6		46	28	22	4	0						161,811
17	4	-	2	-	0	59.2		59.2		59	28	12	1	0						115,610
16	4	-	1	-	2	12.9		12.9		13	21	41	22	3	0	0				466,789
	4	-	1	-	1	34.3		34.3		34	32	28	5	0	0					404,566
15	3	-	3	-	1	5.0		5.0		5	12	40	34	9	0	0				311,550
	4	-	0	-	3	2.4		2.4		2	6	31	42	17	2	0				178,249
	3	-	3	-	0	20.4		20.4		20	30	38	11	1	0					67,401
14	3	-	2	-	2	0.6		0.6		1	2	17	42	31	7	0	0			538,137
	2	-	5	-	0	1.4		1.4		1	5	28	44	20	2	0				23,582
13	3	-	1	-	3	0.0		0.0		0	0	3	20	44	28	5	0	0		410,448
12	2	-	3	-	1	0.1		0.1		0	0	6	31	43	17	2	0			134,868
	3	-	0	-	4	No		No			0	0	3	23	45	25	4	0		116,258
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No				1	14	40	36	9	0			4,493
11	2	-	2	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	0	0	7	33	42	16	2	0		310,408
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No				0	1	15	42	33	7	0		30,939
10	2	-	1	-	3	No		No				0	1	9	36	40	13	1	0	350,726
	1	-	4	-	2	No		No					0	2	19	44	30	6	0	88,598
9	2	-	0	-	4	No		No					0	1	12	40	37	10	0	197,425
	2	-	0	-	5	No		No						0	2	20	46	28	4	44,374
	0	-	6	-	0	No		No						4	23	47	21	5		366
8	1	-	2	-	3	No		No					0	0	5	29	44	19	2	132,491
	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	1	12	43	38	7	111,816
	0	-	5	-	1	No		No						0	7	38	42	12	1	2,953
7	1	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	2	22	51	25	49,845
	0	-	4	-	2	No		No						0	1	16	46	32	5	9,995
6	0	-	3	-	3	No		No							0	3	27	50	20	18,825
	1	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	6	44	50	9,067
5	0	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	10	47	43	21,223
4	0	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	2	29	70	14,099
3	0	-	0	-	6	No		No									0	9	91	5,113
	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										0	100	2,007

Total:						17.2	%	17.2	%	17	9	14	15	13	11	9	6	3	1	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	+0.9
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	0	99	1	0
21	6	-	0	-	1	91	8	1	0
20	5	-	2	-	0	88	10	1	0
19	5	-	1	-	1	72	20	7	0	0
18	5	-	0	-	2	46	28	22	4	0
17	4	-	2	-	0	59	28	12	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	2	13	21	41	22	3	0	0
	4	-	1	-	1	34	32	28	5	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	1	5	12	40	34	9	0	0
	4	-	0	-	3	2	6	31	42	17	2	0
	3	-	3	-	0	20	30	38	11	1	0
14	3	-	2	-	2	1	2	17	42	31	7	0	0
	2	-	5	-	0	1	5	28	44	20	2	0
13	3	-	1	-	3	0	0	3	20	44	28	5	0	0
12	2	-	3	-	1	0	0	6	31	43	17	2	0
	3	-	0	-	4		0	0	3	23	45	25	4	0
	1	-	6	-	0			1	14	40	36	9	0
11	2	-	2	-	2	0	0	0	7	33	42	16	2	0
	1	-	5	-	1			0	1	15	42	33	7	0
10	2	-	1	-	3			0	1	9	36	40	13	1	0
	1	-	4	-	2				0	2	19	44	30	6	0
9	2	-	0	-	4				0	1	12	40	37	10	0
	2	-	0	-	5					0	2	20	46	28	4
	0	-	6	-	0					4	23	47	21	5
8	1	-	2	-	3				0	0	5	29	44	19	2
	1	-	2	-	4					0	1	12	43	38	7
	0	-	5	-	1					0	7	38	42	12	1
7	1	-	1	-	5						0	2	22	51	25
	0	-	4	-	2					0	1	16	46	32	5
6	0	-	3	-	3						0	3	27	50	20
	1	-	0	-	6							0	6	44	50
5	0	-	2	-	4							0	10	47	43
4	0	-	1	-	5							0	2	29	70
3	0	-	0	-	6								0	9	91
	0	-	0	-	7									0	100

Total:						17	9	14	15	13	11	9	6	3	1