Team Dayton Title Chances Fall2010-11 50/50

Plays DU XL, title odds down 0.5 to 8.3%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	+7.9		+8.1		+1.1
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5		-0.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.3		-0.4		-0.0
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.3		-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-5.4-2.2+6.9		-5.4-2.2+6.9		-1.0-0.2+1.2
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.6+0.7+0.2		-0.6+0.7+0.2
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.8+0.4+0.5		-0.8+0.4+0.5		-0.0+0.1-0.0

Chances based on how well the Team Dayton finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	7	-	0	-	0	99.7	%	99.7	%	100	0									5,432
22	6	-	1	-	0	97.4		97.4		97	3									20,949
21	6	-	0	-	1	91.4		91.4		91	8	0								30,781
20	5	-	2	-	0	88.2		88.2		88	11	0								44,158
19	5	-	1	-	1	69.4		69.4		69	27	3	0							127,718
18	5	-	0	-	2	47.5		47.5		48	40	12	1	0						91,487
	4	-	3	-	0	58.3		58.3		58	35	7	0							51,293
17	4	-	2	-	1	31.9		31.9		32	46	20	2	0	0					220,717
16	3	-	4	-	0	16.1		16.1		16	44	33	7	0	0					35,785
15	4	-	0	-	2	10.0		10.0		10	37	39	12	1	0	0				317,998
	3	-	3	-	1	3.4		3.4		3	21	43	27	5	0	0				205,396
	4	-	0	-	3	1.7		1.7		2	14	40	33	9	1	0				152,242
14	3	-	2	-	2	0.2		0.2		0	3	23	42	26	5	0	0			442,938
13	3	-	1	-	3	0.0		0.0		0	0	3	21	41	28	6	0	0		423,852
	2	-	4	-	0	0.4		0.4		0	7	31	41	18	3	0				14,775
12	2	-	3	-	2	No		No			0	0	5	25	42	23	4	0		306,885
	3	-	0	-	4	No		No				0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0	152,471
	2	-	3	-	1	0.0		0.0		0	0	6	29	42	20	3	0			106,759
11	2	-	2	-	3	No		No				0	0	4	23	42	26	5	0	441,969
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No				0	0	7	29	41	19	3	0	29,582
	1	-	5	-	0	No		No				1	7	32	42	17	2			3,414
10	2	-	1	-	4	No		No					0	0	4	25	43	24	3	317,507
9	1	-	3	-	2	No		No					0	0	7	30	42	18	2	106,643
	2	-	0	-	5	No		No						0	1	8	35	43	13	92,414
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No						0	1	12	39	39	8	3,451
	0	-	6	-	0	No		No					0	1	11	32	45	10	0	336
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No							0	3	24	49	24	220,420
	1	-	2	-	3	No		No						0	1	10	37	40	11	203,910
7	1	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	0	7	41	51	127,104
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No							0	0	10	43	47	35,718
	0	-	4	-	2	No		No						0	0	4	28	47	21	14,685
6	1	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	1	24	74	30,354
5	0	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	2	27	71	50,792
4	0	-	1	-	5	No		No									0	12	88	44,102
	0	-	1	-	6	No		No									0	3	97	21,426
3	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										0	100	5,427

Total:						8.3	%	8.3	%	8	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	7	4,500,890

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-1.1
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	+0.0
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+1.0+0.2-1.2
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	0	97	3
21	6	-	0	-	1	91	8	0
20	5	-	2	-	0	88	11	0
19	5	-	1	-	1	69	27	3	0
18	5	-	0	-	2	48	40	12	1	0
	4	-	3	-	0	58	35	7	0
17	4	-	2	-	1	32	46	20	2	0	0
16	3	-	4	-	0	16	44	33	7	0	0
15	4	-	0	-	2	10	37	39	12	1	0	0
	3	-	3	-	1	3	21	43	27	5	0	0
	4	-	0	-	3	2	14	40	33	9	1	0
14	3	-	2	-	2	0	3	23	42	26	5	0	0
13	3	-	1	-	3	0	0	3	21	41	28	6	0	0
	2	-	4	-	0	0	7	31	41	18	3	0
12	2	-	3	-	2		0	0	5	25	42	23	4	0
	3	-	0	-	4			0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0
	2	-	3	-	1	0	0	6	29	42	20	3	0
11	2	-	2	-	3			0	0	4	23	42	26	5	0
	1	-	5	-	1			0	0	7	29	41	19	3	0
	1	-	5	-	0			1	7	32	42	17	2
10	2	-	1	-	4				0	0	4	25	43	24	3
9	1	-	3	-	2				0	0	7	30	42	18	2
	2	-	0	-	5					0	1	8	35	43	13
	0	-	6	-	1					0	1	12	39	39	8
	0	-	6	-	0				0	1	11	32	46	10	0
8	1	-	2	-	4						0	3	24	49	24
	1	-	2	-	3					0	1	10	37	40	11
7	1	-	1	-	5						0	0	7	41	51
	0	-	4	-	3						0	0	10	43	47
	0	-	4	-	2					0	0	4	28	47	21
6	1	-	0	-	6							0	1	24	74
5	0	-	2	-	4							0	2	27	71
4	0	-	1	-	5								0	12	88
	0	-	1	-	6								0	3	97
3	0	-	0	-	7									0	100

Total:						8	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	7