Team Dayton Title Chances Fall2010-11

Plays DU XL, title odds up 0.07 to 2.6%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	+7.9		+8.1		+1.1
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5		-0.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.3		-0.4		-0.0
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.3		-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-1.8-0.5+4.1		-1.8-0.5+4.1		-0.6+0.0+1.2
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.2+0.3+0.1		-0.2+0.3+0.1
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.2+0.1+0.2		-0.2+0.1+0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0

Chances based on how well the Team Dayton finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	7	-	0	-	0	99.6	%	99.6	%	100	0									2,323
22	6	-	1	-	0	95.2		95.2		95	5	0								6,769
21	6	-	0	-	1	84.7		84.7		85	14	1	0							11,722
20	5	-	2	-	0	80.2		80.2		80	18	2	0							17,731
19	5	-	1	-	1	53.6		53.6		54	36	10	1	0						60,978
18	5	-	0	-	2	29.7		29.7		30	42	24	4	0	0					52,226
17	4	-	2	-	0	42.0		42.0		42	41	16	1	0						25,301
16	4	-	1	-	2	3.6		3.6		4	23	43	25	5	0	0				223,834
	4	-	1	-	1	16.6		16.6		17	42	33	8	0	0					130,669
15	3	-	3	-	1	1.0		1.0		1	10	35	38	14	1	0				148,175
	4	-	0	-	3	0.3		0.3		0	6	28	42	21	3	0	0			127,478
	3	-	3	-	0	7.2		7.2		7	32	41	17	2	0					22,025
14	3	-	2	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	1	13	37	37	11	1	0			379,958
	2	-	5	-	0	0.1		0.1		0	3	18	41	31	7	0				11,161
13	3	-	1	-	3	No		No			0	2	15	40	34	8	0	0		429,574
12	3	-	0	-	4	No		No				0	2	19	44	30	5	0		181,531
	2	-	3	-	1	No		No			0	3	21	43	28	5	0			93,698
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No				0	5	28	46	18	2			3,192
11	2	-	2	-	2	No		No			0	0	4	24	45	24	3	0		319,097
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No				0	0	8	35	42	14	1	0	31,228
10	2	-	1	-	3	No		No				0	0	5	30	45	18	2	0	538,210
	1	-	4	-	2	No		No					0	1	13	42	36	8	0	132,560
9	2	-	0	-	4	No		No					0	0	10	38	40	11	1	454,225
	2	-	0	-	5	No		No						0	2	19	46	28	4	150,664
	0	-	6	-	0	No		No						2	18	40	34	6	0	383
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	0	10	43	39	8	371,983
	1	-	2	-	3	No		No					0	0	3	23	46	25	3	297,587
	0	-	5	-	1	No		No						0	3	27	46	22	2	4,325
7	1	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	2	22	51	24	247,076
	0	-	4	-	2	No		No							1	13	44	36	6	21,986
6	1	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	7	45	48	68,737
	0	-	3	-	3	No		No							0	3	27	50	21	61,005
5	0	-	2	-	4	No		No							0	0	10	46	43	101,919
4	0	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	2	29	69	100,616
3	0	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	0	10	90	55,050
	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										0	100	14,239

Total:						2.6	%	2.6	%	3	4	7	9	11	14	16	17	12	7	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-1.1
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	+0.0
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+0.6-0.0-1.2
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	0	95	5	0
21	6	-	0	-	1	85	14	1	0
20	5	-	2	-	0	80	18	2	0
19	5	-	1	-	1	54	36	10	1	0
18	5	-	0	-	2	30	42	24	4	0	0
17	4	-	2	-	0	42	41	16	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	2	4	23	43	25	5	0	0
	4	-	1	-	1	17	42	33	8	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	1	1	10	35	38	14	1	0
	4	-	0	-	3	0	6	28	42	21	3	0	0
	3	-	3	-	0	7	32	41	17	2	0
14	3	-	2	-	2	0	1	13	37	37	11	1	0
	2	-	5	-	0	0	3	18	41	31	7	0
13	3	-	1	-	3		0	2	15	40	34	8	0	0
12	3	-	0	-	4			0	2	19	44	30	5	0
	2	-	3	-	1		0	3	21	43	28	5	0
	1	-	6	-	0			0	5	28	46	18	2
11	2	-	2	-	2		0	0	4	24	45	24	3	0
	1	-	5	-	1			0	0	8	35	42	14	1	0
10	2	-	1	-	3			0	0	5	30	45	18	2	0
	1	-	4	-	2				0	1	13	42	36	8	0
9	2	-	0	-	4				0	0	10	38	40	11	1
	2	-	0	-	5					0	2	19	46	28	4
	0	-	6	-	0					2	18	40	34	6	0
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	0	10	43	39	8
	1	-	2	-	3				0	0	3	23	46	25	3
	0	-	5	-	1					0	3	27	46	22	2
7	1	-	1	-	5						0	2	22	51	24
	0	-	4	-	2						1	13	44	36	6
6	1	-	0	-	6							0	7	45	48
	0	-	3	-	3						0	3	27	50	21
5	0	-	2	-	4						0	0	10	46	43
4	0	-	1	-	5							0	2	29	69
3	0	-	0	-	6							0	0	10	90
	0	-	0	-	7									0	100

Total:						3	4	7	9	11	14	16	17	12	7