STOMP Title Chances Fall2010-11 50/50

Plays at Gunners FC, Beat FC Terrain 10-3, title odds up 5.3 to 10.7%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-6.5		-6.6		-1.0
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5		-0.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.1		-0.1		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.1		-0.1
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
STOMP vs Rogues	+7.4-2.3-5.9		+7.4-2.3-5.9		+1.2-0.2-1.0
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.8+0.8+0.2		-0.8+0.8+0.2
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.2+0.7-0.2		-0.2+0.7-0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0

Chances based on how well the STOMP finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	7	-	0	-	0	99.9	%	99.9	%	100	0									5,370
22	6	-	1	-	0	99.2		99.2		99	1									21,289
21	6	-	0	-	1	94.4		94.4		94	6	0								30,361
20	5	-	2	-	0	93.1		93.1		93	7	0								44,267
19	5	-	1	-	1	79.3		79.3		79	18	2	0							126,518
18	5	-	0	-	2	56.4		56.4		56	32	11	1	0						91,665
	4	-	3	-	0	70.4		70.4		70	25	4	0							51,225
17	4	-	2	-	1	44.7		44.7		45	37	17	2	0						220,908
16	3	-	4	-	0	30.7		30.7		31	36	27	5	0						35,304
15	4	-	0	-	2	18.3		18.3		18	31	37	12	1	0					317,636
	3	-	3	-	1	8.5		8.5		8	20	42	25	5	0	0				205,219
	4	-	0	-	3	3.6		3.6		4	12	39	34	10	1	0				152,207
14	3	-	2	-	2	0.9		0.9		1	3	22	42	27	5	0	0			442,967
13	3	-	1	-	3	0.0		0.0		0	0	3	20	41	29	7	0	0		422,889
	2	-	4	-	0	3.1		3.1		3	8	31	40	16	2	0				14,949
12	2	-	3	-	2	No		No			0	0	5	25	43	23	4	0	0	306,909
	3	-	0	-	4	No		No				0	2	17	42	31	7	0	0	152,790
	2	-	3	-	1	0.1		0.1		0	0	7	29	41	19	3	0			107,182
11	2	-	2	-	3	No		No				0	0	4	23	43	26	5	0	442,993
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No				0	0	7	30	42	18	2	0	29,643
	1	-	5	-	0	No		No			0	1	9	35	39	14	2			3,593
10	2	-	1	-	4	No		No					0	0	4	25	44	24	3	317,370
9	1	-	3	-	2	No		No					0	0	7	30	42	18	2	106,729
	2	-	0	-	5	No		No						0	1	11	39	40	10	91,165
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No						0	2	19	46	28	4	3,488
	0	-	6	-	0	No		No					0	0	10	40	38	11	1	367
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	0	3	26	49	22	221,200
	1	-	2	-	3	No		No						0	2	15	41	35	8	204,006
7	1	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	0	9	44	47	127,799
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No								1	11	45	43	35,600
	0	-	4	-	2	No		No							0	5	29	48	19	14,805
6	1	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	2	30	67	30,561
5	0	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	3	32	65	50,907
4	0	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	1	18	82	44,407
	0	-	1	-	6	No		No									0	8	92	21,298
3	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										3	97	5,304

Total:						10.7	%	10.7	%	11	8	10	11	11	11	11	12	10	6	4,500,890

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	+1.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
STOMP vs Rogues	-1.2+0.2+1.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+0.0-0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	0	99	1
21	6	-	0	-	1	94	6	0
20	5	-	2	-	0	93	7	0
19	5	-	1	-	1	79	18	2	0
18	5	-	0	-	2	56	32	11	1	0
	4	-	3	-	0	70	25	4	0
17	4	-	2	-	1	45	37	17	2	0
16	3	-	4	-	0	31	36	27	5	0
15	4	-	0	-	2	18	31	37	12	1	0
	3	-	3	-	1	8	20	42	25	5	0	0
	4	-	0	-	3	4	12	39	34	10	1	0
14	3	-	2	-	2	1	3	22	42	27	5	0	0
13	3	-	1	-	3	0	0	3	20	41	29	7	0	0
	2	-	4	-	0	3	8	31	40	16	2	0
12	2	-	3	-	2		0	0	5	25	43	23	4	0	0
	3	-	0	-	4			0	2	17	42	31	7	0	0
	2	-	3	-	1	0	0	7	29	41	19	3	0
11	2	-	2	-	3			0	0	4	23	43	26	5	0
	1	-	5	-	1			0	0	7	30	42	18	2	0
	1	-	5	-	0		0	1	9	35	39	14	2
10	2	-	1	-	4				0	0	4	25	44	24	3
9	1	-	3	-	2				0	0	7	30	42	18	2
	2	-	0	-	5					0	1	11	39	40	10
	0	-	6	-	1					0	2	19	46	28	4
	0	-	6	-	0				0	0	10	40	38	11	1
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	0	3	26	49	22
	1	-	2	-	3					0	2	15	41	35	8
7	1	-	1	-	5						0	0	9	44	47
	0	-	4	-	3							1	11	45	43
	0	-	4	-	2						0	5	29	47	19
6	1	-	0	-	6							0	2	30	67
5	0	-	2	-	4							0	3	32	65
4	0	-	1	-	5							0	1	18	82
	0	-	1	-	6								0	8	92
3	0	-	0	-	7									3	97

Total:						11	8	10	11	11	11	11	12	10	6