STOMP Title Chances Fall2010-11

Plays at Gunners FC, Beat FC Terrain 10-3, title odds up 5.1 to 6.6%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-6.5		-6.6		-1.0
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5		-0.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.1		-0.1		-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
STOMP vs Rogues	+4.0-2.3-4.2		+4.0-2.3-4.2		+0.9-0.3-1.1
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.6+0.6+0.2		-0.6+0.6+0.2
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.5+0.5+0.4		-0.5+0.5+0.4		+0.0+0.0-0.1

Chances based on how well the STOMP finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	7	-	0	-	0	99.9	%	99.9	%	100	0									5,043
22	6	-	1	-	0	98.0		98.0		98	2	0								19,102
21	6	-	0	-	1	88.9		88.9		89	11	0								28,772
20	5	-	2	-	0	87.5		87.5		88	11	1	0							41,829
19	5	-	1	-	1	64.9		64.9		65	28	7	0	0						124,777
18	5	-	0	-	2	37.3		37.3		37	38	22	3	0						93,115
17	4	-	2	-	0	55.6		55.6		56	33	10	1	0						49,943
16	4	-	1	-	2	7.1		7.1		7	22	43	23	4	0	0				332,351
	4	-	1	-	1	26.1		26.1		26	38	30	6	0	0					222,955
15	3	-	3	-	1	2.8		2.8		3	11	37	37	12	1	0				213,152
	4	-	0	-	3	0.9		0.9		1	6	29	43	19	2	0				164,457
	3	-	3	-	0	15.6		15.6		16	31	39	13	1	0					35,743
14	3	-	2	-	2	0.2		0.2		0	1	14	39	35	10	1	0			473,877
	2	-	5	-	0	0.7		0.7		1	3	23	42	26	5	0				15,374
13	3	-	1	-	3	0.0		0.0		0	0	2	16	41	33	8	0	0		466,239
12	3	-	0	-	4	No		No				0	2	19	45	29	5	0		171,963
	2	-	3	-	1	0.0		0.0		0	0	4	23	43	25	4	0			114,238
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No				1	8	33	41	16	2			3,652
11	2	-	2	-	2	No		No			0	0	4	25	45	23	3	0		336,992
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No					0	8	36	41	13	1	0	32,234
10	2	-	1	-	3	No		No				0	0	6	30	44	18	2	0	493,680
	1	-	4	-	2	No		No					0	1	13	42	36	8	0	119,285
9	2	-	0	-	4	No		No					0	1	10	39	40	11	1	361,447
	2	-	0	-	5	No		No						0	3	24	48	24	2	105,644
	0	-	6	-	0	No		No					1	1	18	44	32	5	0	394
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	0	11	44	37	7	254,229
	1	-	2	-	3	No		No					0	0	4	28	47	20	2	231,735
	0	-	5	-	1	No		No						0	5	33	46	15	1	3,793
7	1	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	2	26	52	20	148,079
	0	-	4	-	2	No		No						0	1	14	46	33	6	16,791
6	0	-	3	-	3	No		No							0	3	28	50	18	41,421
	1	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	11	51	38	35,310
5	0	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	13	51	36	59,408
4	0	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	4	40	56	51,228
3	0	-	0	-	6	No		No									1	23	76	24,747
	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										12	88	6,236

Total:						6.6	%	6.6	%	7	6	10	11	13	14	15	13	8	3	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	+1.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.9+0.3+1.1
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.0-0.0+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	0	98	2	0
21	6	-	0	-	1	89	11	0
20	5	-	2	-	0	88	11	1	0
19	5	-	1	-	1	65	28	7	0	0
18	5	-	0	-	2	37	38	22	3	0
17	4	-	2	-	0	56	33	10	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	2	7	22	43	23	4	0	0
	4	-	1	-	1	26	38	30	6	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	1	3	11	37	37	12	1	0
	4	-	0	-	3	1	6	29	43	19	2	0
	3	-	3	-	0	16	31	39	13	1	0
14	3	-	2	-	2	0	1	14	39	35	10	1	0
	2	-	5	-	0	1	3	23	42	26	5	0
13	3	-	1	-	3	0	0	2	16	41	33	8	0	0
12	3	-	0	-	4			0	2	19	45	29	5	0
	2	-	3	-	1	0	0	4	23	43	25	4	0
	1	-	6	-	0			1	8	33	41	16	2
11	2	-	2	-	2		0	0	4	25	45	23	3	0
	1	-	5	-	1				0	8	36	41	13	1	0
10	2	-	1	-	3			0	0	6	30	44	18	2	0
	1	-	4	-	2				0	1	13	42	36	8	0
9	2	-	0	-	4				0	1	10	39	40	11	1
	2	-	0	-	5					0	3	24	47	24	2
	0	-	6	-	0				1	1	18	44	32	5	0
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	0	11	44	37	7
	1	-	2	-	3				0	0	4	28	47	20	2
	0	-	5	-	1					0	5	33	46	15	1
7	1	-	1	-	5						0	2	26	52	20
	0	-	4	-	2					0	1	14	46	33	6
6	0	-	3	-	3						0	3	28	50	18
	1	-	0	-	6							0	11	51	38
5	0	-	2	-	4							0	13	51	36
4	0	-	1	-	5							0	4	40	56
3	0	-	0	-	6								1	23	76
	0	-	0	-	7									12	88

Total:						7	6	10	11	13	14	15	13	8	3