Rogues Title Chances Fall2010-11 50/50

Did not play, title odds down 0.1 to 2.1%

0 points 0-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-4.5		-4.2		-1.0
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.1		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.1		-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
STOMP vs Rogues	-1.7-0.9+2.3		-1.7-0.9+2.3		-1.0-0.2+1.2
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.3+0.3+0.1		-0.3+0.3+0.1
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.1+0.2*-0.0		-0.1+0.2*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Rogues finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

22	7	-	1	-	0	95.0	%	95.0	%	95	5									5,505
20	6	-	2	-	0	80.2		80.2		80	20	0								21,254
19	6	-	1	-	1	58.0		58.0		58	41	1								30,581
18	5	-	3	-	0	46.8		46.8		47	51	2	0							43,941
17	5	-	2	-	1	18.6		18.6		19	70	11	0	0						127,433
16	4	-	4	-	0	8.8		8.8		9	66	23	2	0						50,887
15	4	-	3	-	1	0.8		0.8		1	38	43	16	2	0					221,082
	5	-	0	-	2	3.7		3.7		4	58	32	5	0	0					91,642
14	4	-	2	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	10	36	39	14	2	0				318,051
13	4	-	1	-	3	No		No			1	9	34	40	15	2	0			152,470
	3	-	4	-	0	0.1		0.1		0	19	43	30	7	0	0				35,661
12	3	-	3	-	2	No		No			0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0		442,368
	3	-	3	-	1	No		No			2	16	40	33	9	1	0			204,392
11	3	-	2	-	3	No		No				0	1	11	36	38	13	1	0	424,355
	2	-	5	-	1	No		No				0	2	17	41	32	8	0	0	106,230
	2	-	5	-	0	No		No			0	3	21	41	28	6	0			14,750
10	3	-	1	-	4	No		No					0	1	10	36	40	12	1	153,068
9	2	-	3	-	2	No		No					0	2	15	40	35	9	0	306,316
	1	-	6	-	1	No		No						0	1	15	42	35	7	29,440
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No					0	3	19	43	29	5	0	3,445
8	2	-	2	-	3	No		No						0	1	12	39	38	9	442,348
	2	-	2	-	4	No		No							0	1	16	51	32	317,568
7	1	-	4	-	3	No		No								0	5	41	53	204,603
	1	-	4	-	2	No		No							0	1	18	51	29	107,474
	2	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	4	39	56	91,493
	0	-	7	-	0	No		No								2	23	49	26	343
6	0	-	6	-	1	No		No								0	7	43	51	3,429
5	1	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	1	27	72	221,116
	0	-	5	-	2	No		No									1	28	71	14,721
4	1	-	1	-	5	No		No									0	15	85	126,777
	0	-	4	-	4	No		No									0	7	93	51,115
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No									0	16	84	35,623
	1	-	1	-	6	No		No									0	7	93	30,492
3	0	-	3	-	5	No		No										3	97	44,053
1	0	-	1	-	6	No		No										1	99	21,372
0	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										0	100	5,492

Total:						2.1	%	2.1	%	2	8	7	8	9	11	11	11	15	18	4,500,890

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

22	7	-	1	-	0	95	5
20	6	-	2	-	0	80	20	0
19	6	-	1	-	1	58	41	1
18	5	-	3	-	0	47	51	2	0
17	5	-	2	-	1	19	70	11	0	0
16	4	-	4	-	0	9	66	23	2	0
15	4	-	3	-	1	1	38	43	16	2	0
	5	-	0	-	2	4	58	32	5	0	0
14	4	-	2	-	2	0	10	36	39	14	2	0
13	4	-	1	-	3		1	9	34	40	15	2	0
	3	-	4	-	0	0	19	43	30	7	0	0
12	3	-	3	-	2		0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0
	3	-	3	-	1		2	16	40	33	9	1	0
11	3	-	2	-	3			0	1	11	36	38	13	1	0
	2	-	5	-	1			0	2	17	41	32	8	0	0
	2	-	5	-	0		0	3	21	41	28	6	0
10	3	-	1	-	4				0	1	10	36	40	12	1
9	2	-	3	-	2				0	2	15	40	35	9	0
	1	-	6	-	1					0	1	15	42	35	7
	1	-	6	-	0				0	3	19	44	29	5	0
8	2	-	2	-	3					0	1	12	39	38	9
	2	-	2	-	4						0	1	16	51	32
7	1	-	4	-	3							0	5	41	53
	1	-	4	-	2						0	1	18	51	29
	2	-	1	-	5							0	4	39	56
	0	-	7	-	0							2	22	50	26
6	0	-	6	-	1							0	7	43	51
5	1	-	2	-	4							0	1	27	72
	0	-	5	-	2								1	28	71
4	1	-	1	-	5								0	15	85
	0	-	4	-	4								0	7	93
	0	-	4	-	3								0	16	84
	1	-	1	-	6								0	7	93
3	0	-	3	-	5									3	97
1	0	-	1	-	6									1	99
0	0	-	0	-	7									0	100

Total:						2	8	7	8	9	11	11	11	15	18