Rogues Title Chances Fall2010-11

Did not play, title odds down 0.07 to 0.4%

0 points 0-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-4.5		-4.2		-1.0
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.1		-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.3-0.2+0.6		-0.3-0.2+0.6		-0.7-0.1+1.1
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.1+0.0+0.0		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton					+0.0+0.0-0.1

Chances based on how well the Rogues finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

22	7	-	1	-	0	93.1	%	93.1	%	93	7									1,934
20	6	-	2	-	0	68.0		68.0		68	32	0								4,598
19	6	-	1	-	1	42.3		42.3		42	55	3	0							8,117
17	5	-	2	-	0	30.0		30.0		30	65	5	0							12,709
16	5	-	1	-	1	8.7		8.7		9	69	21	2	0						45,719
	5	-	1	-	2	1.1		1.1		1	43	43	13	1	0					40,479
15	4	-	3	-	1	0.2		0.2		0	24	44	27	5	0	0				103,554
	4	-	3	-	0	3.0		3.0		3	54	36	7	0						19,213
14	4	-	2	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	5	26	43	23	3	0	0			184,878
	3	-	5	-	0	0.0		0.0		0	10	36	40	14	2	0				17,690
13	4	-	1	-	3	No		No			0	5	28	44	21	3	0			109,745
12	3	-	3	-	1	No		No			1	9	35	40	14	1	0			126,132
	2	-	6	-	0	No		No			0	2	16	41	33	8	1			9,639
11	3	-	2	-	2	No		No			0	1	10	35	40	13	1	0		335,276
	2	-	5	-	1	No		No				0	2	17	43	32	6	0		85,387
10	3	-	1	-	3	No		No				0	1	12	39	38	10	1	0	396,498
	2	-	4	-	2	No		No				0	0	2	20	45	29	4	0	303,136
9	3	-	0	-	4	No		No					0	1	15	44	34	6	0	175,972
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No					0	3	24	46	23	4	0	2,855
8	2	-	2	-	3	No		No						0	2	21	47	26	3	535,384
	2	-	2	-	4	No		No							0	3	32	53	12	473,355
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No						0	3	24	48	23	2	30,729
7	2	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	0	13	57	29	166,754
	1	-	4	-	2	No		No						0	0	4	33	52	11	135,898
	0	-	7	-	0	No		No								5	34	51	9	395
6	1	-	3	-	3	No		No							0	1	15	58	27	319,863
	0	-	6	-	2	No		No								0	6	51	43	24,175
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No							0	1	16	58	25	4,486
5	1	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	5	50	45	421,476
4	1	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	1	36	62	295,914
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No									1	37	62	70,803
3	0	-	3	-	4	No		No									0	22	78	123,852
	1	-	0	-	6	No		No									0	21	79	86,142
2	0	-	2	-	5	No		No									0	12	88	130,694
1	0	-	1	-	6	No		No										6	94	75,583
0	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										1	99	20,201

Total:						0.4	%	0.4	%	0	2	3	5	7	10	12	16	25	21	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	+1.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.7+0.1-1.1
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.0-0.0+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

22	7	-	1	-	0	93	7
20	6	-	2	-	0	68	32	0
19	6	-	1	-	1	42	55	3	0
17	5	-	2	-	0	30	65	5	0
16	5	-	1	-	1	9	69	21	2	0
	5	-	1	-	2	1	43	43	13	1	0
15	4	-	3	-	1	0	24	44	27	5	0	0
	4	-	3	-	0	3	54	36	7	0
14	4	-	2	-	2	0	5	26	43	23	3	0	0
	3	-	5	-	0	0	10	36	39	14	2	0
13	4	-	1	-	3		0	5	28	44	21	3	0
12	3	-	3	-	1		1	9	35	40	14	1	0
	2	-	6	-	0		0	2	16	41	33	8	1
11	3	-	2	-	2		0	1	10	35	40	13	1	0
	2	-	5	-	1			0	2	17	43	32	6	0
10	3	-	1	-	3			0	1	12	39	38	10	1	0
	2	-	4	-	2			0	0	2	20	45	29	4	0
9	3	-	0	-	4				0	1	15	44	34	6	0
	1	-	6	-	0				0	3	24	46	23	4	0
8	2	-	2	-	3					0	2	21	47	26	3
	2	-	2	-	4						0	3	32	53	12
	1	-	5	-	1					0	3	24	48	23	2
7	2	-	1	-	5						0	0	13	57	29
	1	-	4	-	2					0	0	4	33	52	11
	0	-	7	-	0							6	34	51	9
6	1	-	3	-	3						0	1	15	58	27
	0	-	6	-	2							0	6	51	43
	0	-	6	-	1						0	1	16	58	25
5	1	-	2	-	4							0	5	50	45
4	1	-	1	-	5							0	1	36	62
	0	-	4	-	3								1	37	62
3	0	-	3	-	4								0	22	78
	1	-	0	-	6								0	21	79
2	0	-	2	-	5								0	12	88
1	0	-	1	-	6									6	94
0	0	-	0	-	7									1	99

Total:						0	2	3	5	7	10	12	16	25	21