Gunners FC Title Chances Fall2010-11

Plays STOMP, title odds down 1 to 22.8%

3 points 1-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	+7.6		+7.8		+1.1
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.3		-0.4		-0.0
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.3		-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	+12.8-2.7-11.0		+12.8-2.7-11.0		+0.9-0.1-0.8
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-1.3+1.2+1.4		-1.3+1.2+1.4		-0.0+0.1+0.0
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.8+0.6+0.7		-0.8+0.6+0.7		-0.0+0.1+0.0

Chances based on how well the Gunners FC finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

27	8	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										5,816
24	7	-	0	-	1	99.2	%	99.2	%	99	1									28,486
	7	-	0	-	0	100.0		100.0		100	0									22,188
23	6	-	2	-	0	99.7		99.7		100	0									48,897
22	6	-	1	-	1	96.4		96.4		96	4	0								124,963
21	6	-	0	-	2	87.4		87.4		87	12	1	0							78,339
20	5	-	2	-	1	84.2		84.2		84	14	2	0							232,174
	5	-	2	-	0	95.5		95.5		96	4	0								60,744
19	5	-	1	-	2	62.3		62.3		62	28	10	1	0						292,533
18	5	-	0	-	3	36.7		36.7		37	35	24	4	0	0					122,504
	4	-	3	-	0	78.0		78.0		78	18	4	0							46,975
17	4	-	2	-	1	52.1		52.1		52	33	14	1	0						238,793
16	4	-	1	-	2	25.2		25.2		25	36	32	7	0	0					447,811
	4	-	1	-	3	7.0		7.0		7	21	43	25	4	0	0				372,274
	3	-	4	-	0	40.8		40.8		41	37	20	2	0						23,460
15	3	-	3	-	2	2.7		2.7		3	11	38	37	11	1	0				366,119
	3	-	3	-	1	14.5		14.5		14	30	40	14	1	0					145,889
	4	-	0	-	4	0.9		0.9		1	5	29	43	19	2	0				116,044
14	3	-	2	-	3	0.2		0.2		0	1	14	40	35	9	1	0			455,167
	2	-	5	-	1	0.7		0.7		1	3	24	43	25	4	0				53,312
	2	-	5	-	0	6.6		6.6		7	18	43	28	5	0					7,145
13	3	-	1	-	4	0.0		0.0		0	0	2	16	42	33	7	0	0		281,908
12	2	-	3	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	0	4	26	44	23	3	0			167,218
	3	-	0	-	5	No		No				0	2	19	44	30	5	0		69,465
	1	-	6	-	1	No		No				1	9	36	40	13	1	0		10,974
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No			1	8	37	40	14	1				1,188
11	2	-	2	-	3	No		No				0	5	28	44	21	3	0		276,214
	1	-	5	-	2	No		No				0	1	11	38	39	11	1	0	41,035
	0	-	8	-	0	No		No						22	46	23	8			95
10	2	-	1	-	4	No		No				0	0	6	31	43	18	2	0	255,214
	1	-	4	-	3	No		No					0	1	14	42	35	8	0	83,777
9	2	-	0	-	5	No		No					0	1	10	37	40	12	1	125,091
	2	-	0	-	6	No		No						0	2	21	47	26	4	25,105
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No						2	20	44	29	5		938
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	4	27	45	21	2	102,587
	1	-	2	-	5	No		No						0	0	10	42	39	8	75,262
	0	-	5	-	2	No		No						0	7	34	44	14	1	4,147
7	1	-	1	-	6	No		No							0	2	23	50	25	30,247
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No							1	14	44	34	7	10,094
6	0	-	3	-	4	No		No							0	3	27	49	22	15,334
	1	-	0	-	7	No		No								0	9	44	47	5,271
5	0	-	2	-	5	No		No								0	12	45	42	14,980
4	0	-	1	-	6	No		No								0	3	31	66	8,802
3	0	-	0	-	7	No		No									0	14	85	2,944
	0	-	0	-	8	No		No										5	95	1,712

Total:						22.8	%	22.8	%	23	12	15	13	11	9	7	5	2	1	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-1.1
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	+0.0
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.9+0.1+0.8
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+0.0-0.1-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

27	8	-	0	-	0	100
24	7	-	0	-	1	99	1
	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
23	6	-	2	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	1	96	4	0
21	6	-	0	-	2	87	12	1	0
20	5	-	2	-	1	84	14	2	0
	5	-	2	-	0	96	4	0
19	5	-	1	-	2	62	28	10	1	0
18	5	-	0	-	3	37	35	24	4	0	0
	4	-	3	-	0	78	18	4	0
17	4	-	2	-	1	52	33	14	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	2	25	36	32	7	0	0
	4	-	1	-	3	7	21	43	25	4	0	0
	3	-	4	-	0	41	37	20	2	0
15	3	-	3	-	2	3	11	38	37	11	1	0
	3	-	3	-	1	14	30	40	14	1	0
	4	-	0	-	4	1	5	29	43	19	2	0
14	3	-	2	-	3	0	1	14	40	35	9	1	0
	2	-	5	-	1	1	3	24	43	25	4	0
	2	-	5	-	0	7	18	43	28	5	0
13	3	-	1	-	4	0	0	2	16	42	32	7	0	0
12	2	-	3	-	2	0	0	4	26	44	23	3	0
	3	-	0	-	5			0	2	19	44	30	5	0
	1	-	6	-	1			1	9	36	40	13	1	0
	1	-	6	-	0		1	8	37	40	14	1
11	2	-	2	-	3			0	5	28	44	21	3	0
	1	-	5	-	2			0	1	11	38	39	11	1	0
	0	-	8	-	0					22	46	23	8
10	2	-	1	-	4			0	0	6	31	43	18	2	0
	1	-	4	-	3				0	1	14	42	35	8	0
9	2	-	0	-	5				0	1	10	37	40	12	1
	2	-	0	-	6					0	2	21	47	26	4
	0	-	6	-	1					2	20	44	29	5
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	4	27	45	21	2
	1	-	2	-	5					0	0	10	42	39	8
	0	-	5	-	2					0	7	34	44	14	1
7	1	-	1	-	6						0	2	23	50	25
	0	-	4	-	3						1	14	44	34	7
6	0	-	3	-	4						0	3	27	49	22
	1	-	0	-	7							0	9	44	47
5	0	-	2	-	5							0	12	45	42
4	0	-	1	-	6							0	3	31	66
3	0	-	0	-	7								0	14	85
	0	-	0	-	8									5	95

Total:						23	12	15	13	11	9	7	5	2	1