Greene FC Title Chances Fall2010-11

Plays Dayton FC, title odds down 0.1 to 1.4%

0 points 0-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.2
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-4.6		-4.9		-0.9
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.1		-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.1+0.2+0.0		-0.1+0.2+0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.1+0.1+0.1		+0.0+0.0-0.1
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.1+0.0+0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.1		+0.0+0.0-0.1

Chances based on how well the Greene FC finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	8	-	0	-	0	99.1	%	99.1	%	99	1									1,582
22	7	-	1	-	0	95.4		95.4		95	5	0								2,481
21	7	-	0	-	1	85.7		85.7		86	14	0	0							4,281
20	6	-	2	-	0	81.8		81.8		82	16	2	0							7,672
19	6	-	1	-	1	59.7		59.7		60	31	9	0							25,726
18	6	-	0	-	2	34.6		34.6		35	40	22	3	0						21,906
17	5	-	2	-	0	49.1		49.1		49	37	13	1							12,793
16	5	-	1	-	2	5.9		5.9		6	23	43	24	4	0					112,335
	5	-	1	-	1	22.6		22.6		23	39	32	7	0	0					66,178
15	4	-	3	-	1	1.9		1.9		2	11	37	37	12	1	0				92,734
	5	-	0	-	3	0.7		0.7		1	6	29	42	20	3	0				63,614
	4	-	3	-	0	12.0		12.0		12	31	41	15	1	0					13,662
14	4	-	2	-	2	0.1		0.1		0	1	13	39	36	10	1	0			236,238
	3	-	5	-	0	0.6		0.6		1	3	22	42	27	6	0				9,218
13	4	-	1	-	3	No		No			0	2	15	41	34	8	0	0		265,752
12	4	-	0	-	4	No		No				0	2	17	43	31	6	0		112,405
	3	-	3	-	1	0.0		0.0		0	0	4	23	43	25	4	0			78,272
	2	-	6	-	0	No		No				0	7	31	44	16	2	0		3,903
11	3	-	2	-	2	No		No			0	0	4	25	44	24	3	0		264,435
	2	-	5	-	1	No		No					1	9	35	41	14	1	0	39,214
10	3	-	1	-	3	No		No				0	0	5	28	44	20	2	0	444,651
	2	-	4	-	2	No		No					0	1	12	40	38	9	0	165,062
9	3	-	0	-	4	No		No					0	0	8	36	43	13	1	373,517
	3	-	0	-	5	No		No						0	1	18	48	29	4	125,268
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No						1	17	46	30	6	0	957
8	2	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	0	9	43	40	8	462,699
	2	-	2	-	3	No		No						0	3	23	48	23	2	369,355
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No						0	4	29	48	17	1	10,972
7	2	-	1	-	5	No		No							0	1	23	52	24	307,864
	1	-	4	-	2	No		No						0	1	11	46	36	6	54,340
	0	-	7	-	0	No		No								12	53	28	7	107
6	1	-	3	-	3	No		No							0	2	27	51	21	151,280
	2	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	9	47	45	85,275
	0	-	6	-	2	No		No								0	14	50	36	7,496
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No								4	31	48	17	1,290
5	1	-	2	-	4	No		No								0	11	48	40	252,202
4	1	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	3	34	63	250,551
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No								0	4	35	61	24,755
3	1	-	0	-	6	No		No									0	17	83	137,589
	0	-	3	-	4	No		No									1	18	81	51,552
	1	-	0	-	7	No		No										6	94	32,115
2	0	-	2	-	5	No		No									0	7	93	67,897
1	0	-	1	-	6	No		No									0	1	99	55,377
0	0	-	0	-	7	No		No											100	32,663	*

Total:						1.4	%	1.4	%	1	2	4	5	8	10	14	20	19	17	4,899,235

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+0.9
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.0-0.0+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	8	-	0	-	0	99	1
22	7	-	1	-	0	95	5	0
21	7	-	0	-	1	86	14	0	0
20	6	-	2	-	0	82	16	2	0
19	6	-	1	-	1	60	31	9	0
18	6	-	0	-	2	35	40	22	3	0
17	5	-	2	-	0	49	37	13	1
16	5	-	1	-	2	6	23	43	24	4	0
	5	-	1	-	1	23	39	32	7	0	0
15	4	-	3	-	1	2	11	37	37	12	1	0
	5	-	0	-	3	1	6	29	42	20	3	0
	4	-	3	-	0	12	31	41	15	1	0
14	4	-	2	-	2	0	1	13	39	36	10	1	0
	3	-	5	-	0	1	3	22	42	27	6	0
13	4	-	1	-	3		0	2	15	41	34	8	0	0
12	4	-	0	-	4			0	2	17	43	31	6	0
	3	-	3	-	1	0	0	4	23	43	25	4	0
	2	-	6	-	0			0	7	31	44	16	2	0
11	3	-	2	-	2		0	0	4	25	44	24	3	0
	2	-	5	-	1				1	9	35	41	14	1	0
10	3	-	1	-	3			0	0	5	28	44	20	2	0
	2	-	4	-	2				0	1	12	40	38	9	0
9	3	-	0	-	4				0	0	8	36	43	13	1
	3	-	0	-	5					0	1	18	48	29	4
	1	-	6	-	0					1	17	45	30	6	0
8	2	-	2	-	4					0	0	9	43	40	8
	2	-	2	-	3					0	3	23	48	23	2
	1	-	5	-	1					0	4	29	48	17	1
7	2	-	1	-	5						0	1	23	52	24
	1	-	4	-	2					0	1	11	46	36	6
	0	-	7	-	0							12	54	27	7
6	1	-	3	-	3						0	2	27	51	21
	2	-	0	-	6							0	9	47	45
	0	-	6	-	2							0	14	50	36
	0	-	6	-	1							4	31	48	17
5	1	-	2	-	4							0	11	48	40
4	1	-	1	-	5							0	3	34	63
	0	-	4	-	3							0	4	35	61
3	1	-	0	-	6								0	17	83
	0	-	3	-	4								1	18	81
	1	-	0	-	7									6	94
2	0	-	2	-	5								0	7	93
1	0	-	1	-	6								0	1	99
0	0	-	0	-	7										100

Total:						1	2	4	5	8	10	14	20	19	17