Dayton Dynasty Title Chances Fall2010-11

Did not play, title odds down 0.7 to 15.3%

3 points 1-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.3		-0.3
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.2

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	+4.8		+3.9		+1.1
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-0.1		-0.1		-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+7.1-4.8-9.4		+7.1-4.8-9.4		+0.7-0.3-1.0
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-0.9+1.3*-0.0		-0.9+1.3*-0.0
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.6+0.4+0.6		-0.6+0.4+0.6		-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Dayton Dynasty finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

24	7	-	0	-	0	99.4	%	99.4	%	99	1									20,162
23	6	-	2	-	0	95.9		95.9		96	4	0								76,397
22	6	-	1	-	1	87.0		87.0		87	13	0								86,632
20	5	-	2	-	1	61.6		61.6		62	38	1								298,066
	5	-	2	-	0	82.5		82.5		83	17	0								131,458
19	5	-	1	-	2	36.7		36.7		37	60	4	0							167,585
18	4	-	3	-	0	49.9		49.9		50	48	2	0							125,239
17	4	-	2	-	1	24.9		24.9		25	68	7	0							422,950
16	4	-	1	-	2	7.8		7.8		8	67	23	2	0	0					475,656
	4	-	1	-	3	1.2		1.2		1	39	44	15	1	0					176,208
	3	-	4	-	0	13.9		13.9		14	72	14	0	0						71,788
15	3	-	3	-	2	0.2		0.2		0	20	44	29	6	0	0				536,469
	3	-	3	-	1	2.8		2.8		3	49	39	9	0	0					321,043
14	3	-	2	-	3	0.0		0.0		0	4	25	43	24	4	0	0			396,418
	2	-	5	-	1	0.0		0.0		0	8	34	41	15	1	0				136,207
	2	-	5	-	0	0.7		0.7		1	32	45	20	2	0					24,142
13	3	-	1	-	4	No		No			0	5	27	44	21	3	0			109,576
12	2	-	3	-	2	No		No			1	10	36	40	13	1	0			302,351
	1	-	6	-	1	No		No			0	2	18	43	30	6	0			30,594
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No			2	17	42	31	7	0				4,550
11	2	-	2	-	3	No		No			0	1	10	36	39	13	1	0		333,477
	1	-	5	-	2	No		No				0	2	19	44	29	5	0		84,748
	0	-	8	-	0	No		No					3	32	42	21	2			393
10	2	-	1	-	4	No		No				0	1	11	38	39	11	1	0	182,298
	1	-	4	-	3	No		No					0	3	21	45	28	4	0	123,971
9	2	-	0	-	5	No		No					0	1	13	40	37	9	0	39,690
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No					0	6	30	43	19	2	0	2,900
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	2	20	46	28	4	102,143
	1	-	2	-	5	No		No							0	2	25	52	22	44,193
	0	-	5	-	2	No		No						0	5	30	46	18	2	9,562
7	0	-	4	-	3	No		No							0	5	33	47	15	17,435
	1	-	1	-	6	No		No								0	7	45	48	7,836
6	0	-	3	-	4	No		No								0	13	49	38	18,758
5	0	-	2	-	5	No		No								0	3	33	64	12,092
4	0	-	1	-	6	No		No									0	12	87	4,389
3	0	-	0	-	7	No		No										0	100	1,859

Total:						15.3	%	15.3	%	15	27	16	13	10	7	5	3	2	1	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	None

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4	-1.1
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.7+0.3+1.0
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

24	7	-	0	-	0	99	1
23	6	-	2	-	0	96	4	0
22	6	-	1	-	1	87	13	0
20	5	-	2	-	1	62	38	1
	5	-	2	-	0	83	17	0
19	5	-	1	-	2	37	60	4	0
18	4	-	3	-	0	50	48	2	0
17	4	-	2	-	1	25	68	7	0
16	4	-	1	-	2	8	67	23	2	0	0
	4	-	1	-	3	1	39	44	15	1	0
	3	-	4	-	0	14	72	14	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	2	0	20	44	29	6	0	0
	3	-	3	-	1	3	49	39	9	0	0
14	3	-	2	-	3	0	4	25	43	24	4	0	0
	2	-	5	-	1	0	8	34	41	15	1	0
	2	-	5	-	0	1	32	45	20	2	0
13	3	-	1	-	4		0	5	27	44	21	3	0
12	2	-	3	-	2		1	10	36	40	13	1	0
	1	-	6	-	1		0	2	18	43	30	6	0
	1	-	6	-	0		2	17	42	31	7	0
11	2	-	2	-	3		0	1	10	36	39	13	1	0
	1	-	5	-	2			0	2	19	44	29	5	0
	0	-	8	-	0				3	32	42	21	2
10	2	-	1	-	4			0	1	11	37	39	11	1	0
	1	-	4	-	3				0	3	21	45	28	4	0
9	2	-	0	-	5				0	1	13	40	37	9	0
	0	-	6	-	1				0	5	30	43	19	2	0
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	2	20	46	28	4
	1	-	2	-	5						0	2	25	52	22
	0	-	5	-	2					0	5	30	46	18	2
7	0	-	4	-	3						0	5	33	47	15
	1	-	1	-	6							0	7	45	48
6	0	-	3	-	4							0	13	49	38
5	0	-	2	-	5							0	3	33	64
4	0	-	1	-	6								0	12	87
3	0	-	0	-	7									0	100

Total:						15	27	16	13	10	7	5	3	2	1