DU XL Title Chances Fall2010-11 50/50

Plays at Team Dayton, title odds down 0.7 to 19%

3 points 1-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.2		-0.2		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+7.1		+7.5		+1.1
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-1.1+1.2+0.3		-1.1+1.2+0.3		-0.0+0.1-0.0
STOMP vs Rogues	-1.2+0.6+0.7		-1.2+0.6+0.7		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-0.6+0.9*+0.0		-0.6+0.9*+0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the DU XL finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

27	8	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										2,739
24	7	-	0	-	1	99.6	%	99.6	%	100	0									12,890
	7	-	0	-	0	100.0		100.0		100	0									9,068
22	6	-	1	-	1	98.2		98.2		98	2	0								63,129
	6	-	1	-	0	99.7		99.7		100	0									21,853
21	6	-	0	-	2	93.3		93.3		93	7	0								45,061
	5	-	3	-	0	97.5		97.5		97	3	0								30,409
20	5	-	2	-	1	90.7		90.7		91	9	0								130,513
19	5	-	1	-	2	75.9		75.9		76	21	3	0							189,305
	4	-	4	-	0	85.7		85.7		86	13	1	0							26,456
18	4	-	3	-	1	66.1		66.1		66	28	6	0	0						152,080
	5	-	0	-	3	53.9		53.9		54	33	12	1	0						90,349
17	4	-	2	-	2	40.1		40.1		40	40	18	2	0						327,942
16	3	-	4	-	1	25.5		25.5		25	39	29	6	0	0					106,000
	3	-	4	-	0	53.8		53.8		54	36	10	1	0						14,615
15	4	-	0	-	3	15.3		15.3		15	34	38	12	1	0					314,454
	3	-	3	-	2	6.4		6.4		6	21	43	25	5	0	0				304,369
	4	-	0	-	4	2.9		2.9		3	13	39	34	9	1	0				112,771
14	3	-	2	-	3	0.5		0.5		1	4	23	42	26	5	0	0			436,746
	2	-	5	-	0	12.8		12.8		13	29	41	16	1						5,156
13	3	-	1	-	4	0.0		0.0		0	0	3	21	42	28	6	0	0		314,464
	2	-	4	-	1	1.8		1.8		2	8	33	40	16	2	0				43,819
12	2	-	3	-	3	No		No			0	0	5	27	42	22	3	0		304,139
	2	-	3	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	0	8	31	41	18	2	0			158,371
	3	-	0	-	5	No		No				0	2	18	42	31	7	0		90,606
	1	-	6	-	0	0.4		0.4		0	1	16	37	34	10	1				982
11	2	-	2	-	4	No		No				0	0	4	24	42	25	4	0	327,900
	1	-	5	-	2	No		No				0	1	8	31	41	17	2	0	44,324
	1	-	5	-	1	No		No			0	1	11	35	38	14	1	0		10,189
10	2	-	1	-	5	No		No					0	0	4	26	44	23	3	188,904
	0	-	7	-	0	No		No					1	10	39	39	12			83
9	1	-	3	-	3	No		No					0	1	8	31	42	17	2	105,479
	2	-	0	-	6	No		No						0	1	9	36	43	12	45,191
	0	-	6	-	2	No		No						0	2	18	43	31	6	4,996
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No						1	11	37	39	11	0	977
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	1	13	39	38	9	151,992
	1	-	2	-	5	No		No							0	3	25	49	23	131,530
7	1	-	1	-	6	No		No								0	8	42	49	63,241
	0	-	4	-	4	No		No							0	1	10	45	44	26,478
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No						0	0	5	28	48	19	14,588
6	1	-	0	-	7	No		No									2	26	72	12,764
5	0	-	2	-	5	No		No								0	3	30	68	30,382
4	0	-	1	-	6	No		No									0	15	84	21,868
	0	-	1	-	7	No		No									0	6	94	8,940
3	0	-	0	-	8	No		No										2	98	2,778

Total:						19.0	%	19.0	%	19	11	12	11	10	9	9	8	6	4	4,500,890

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-1.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

27	8	-	0	-	0	100
24	7	-	0	-	1	100	0
	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	1	98	2	0
	6	-	1	-	0	100	0
21	6	-	0	-	2	93	7	0
	5	-	3	-	0	97	3	0
20	5	-	2	-	1	91	9	0
19	5	-	1	-	2	76	21	3	0
	4	-	4	-	0	86	13	1	0
18	4	-	3	-	1	66	28	6	0	0
	5	-	0	-	3	54	33	12	1	0
17	4	-	2	-	2	40	40	18	2	0
16	3	-	4	-	1	25	39	29	6	0	0
	3	-	4	-	0	54	36	10	1	0
15	4	-	0	-	3	15	34	38	12	1	0
	3	-	3	-	2	6	21	43	25	5	0	0
	4	-	0	-	4	3	13	39	34	9	1	0
14	3	-	2	-	3	1	4	23	42	26	5	0	0
	2	-	5	-	0	13	29	41	16	1
13	3	-	1	-	4	0	0	3	21	42	28	6	0	0
	2	-	4	-	1	2	8	33	40	16	2	0
12	2	-	3	-	3		0	0	5	27	42	22	3	0
	2	-	3	-	2	0	0	8	31	41	18	2	0
	3	-	0	-	5			0	2	18	42	31	7	0
	1	-	6	-	0	0	1	16	37	34	10	1
11	2	-	2	-	4			0	0	4	24	42	25	4	0
	1	-	5	-	2			0	1	8	31	41	17	2	0
	1	-	5	-	1		0	1	11	35	38	14	1	0
10	2	-	1	-	5				0	0	4	26	44	23	3
	0	-	7	-	0				1	10	39	39	12
9	1	-	3	-	3				0	1	8	31	42	17	2
	2	-	0	-	6					0	1	9	36	43	12
	0	-	6	-	2					0	2	17	43	31	6
	0	-	6	-	1					1	11	37	39	11	0
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	1	13	39	38	9
	1	-	2	-	5						0	3	25	49	23
7	1	-	1	-	6							0	8	42	49
	0	-	4	-	4						0	1	10	45	44
	0	-	4	-	3					0	0	5	28	48	19
6	1	-	0	-	7								2	26	72
5	0	-	2	-	5							0	3	30	68
4	0	-	1	-	6								0	15	84
	0	-	1	-	7								0	6	94
3	0	-	0	-	8									2	98

Total:						19	11	12	11	10	9	9	8	6	4