DU XL Title Chances Fall2010-11

Plays at Team Dayton, title odds down 0.9 to 21.8%

3 points 1-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
Rogues 0 Gunners FC 4	-0.5		-0.5		-0.0
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	-0.2		-0.2
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	-0.1		-0.1		-0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	+5.8		+6.2		+1.0
Trophy Sport 0 Dayton Dynasty 4			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	-1.6+1.6+0.5		-1.6+1.6+0.5		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	-1.3+1.2+1.3		-1.3+1.2+1.3		-0.0+0.1+0.0
STOMP vs Rogues	-0.8+0.5+0.8		-0.8+0.5+0.8		-0.0+0.1+0.0

Chances based on how well the DU XL finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

27	8	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										5,837
24	7	-	0	-	1	99.1	%	99.1	%	99	1									29,188
	7	-	0	-	0	100.0		100.0		100	0									22,647
23	6	-	2	-	0	99.5		99.5		100	0									49,726
22	6	-	1	-	1	95.5		95.5		96	4	0								126,034
21	6	-	0	-	2	85.9		85.9		86	13	1	0							79,781
20	5	-	2	-	1	82.3		82.3		82	16	2	0							232,352
	5	-	2	-	0	94.8		94.8		95	5	0								61,408
19	5	-	1	-	2	58.9		58.9		59	30	10	1	0						293,607
18	5	-	0	-	3	34.4		34.4		34	36	25	4	0						122,792
	4	-	3	-	0	74.7		74.7		75	21	4	0							47,078
17	4	-	2	-	1	48.6		48.6		49	35	15	1	0						238,215
16	4	-	1	-	2	22.1		22.1		22	38	33	7	0	0					449,166
	4	-	1	-	3	5.8		5.8		6	22	44	24	4	0					374,446
	3	-	4	-	0	35.7		35.7		36	40	22	3	0						23,271
15	3	-	3	-	2	2.0		2.0		2	11	38	38	11	1	0				366,459
	3	-	3	-	1	12.0		12.0		12	31	41	15	1	0					146,416
	4	-	0	-	4	0.7		0.7		1	6	30	42	19	2	0				115,738
14	3	-	2	-	3	0.1		0.1		0	1	14	40	35	9	1	0			454,484
	2	-	5	-	1	0.4		0.4		0	4	23	43	25	4	0				53,448
	2	-	5	-	0	5.6		5.6		6	18	42	29	6	0					7,056
13	3	-	1	-	4	0.0		0.0		0	0	2	17	42	32	7	0	0		280,708
12	2	-	3	-	2	0.0		0.0		0	0	4	26	44	23	3	0	0		166,439
	3	-	0	-	5	No		No				0	2	21	45	28	4	0		69,049
	1	-	6	-	1	No		No				1	9	35	41	13	1	0		10,860
	1	-	6	-	0	No		No			1	9	35	41	13	1				1,209
11	2	-	2	-	3	No		No			0	0	5	28	44	20	2	0		276,234
	1	-	5	-	2	No		No				0	1	11	38	38	11	1	0	40,792
	0	-	8	-	0	No		No					1	19	41	35	4			98
10	2	-	1	-	4	No		No					0	7	32	43	16	1	0	253,459
	1	-	4	-	3	No		No					0	1	15	42	34	7	0	82,867
9	2	-	0	-	5	No		No					0	1	10	39	39	10	1	124,386
	2	-	0	-	6	No		No						0	2	21	46	28	4	25,046
	0	-	6	-	1	No		No						2	19	45	30	4	0	982
8	1	-	2	-	4	No		No						0	4	26	46	21	2	101,455
	1	-	2	-	5	No		No						0	1	11	42	38	8	74,119
	0	-	5	-	2	No		No						0	6	33	44	16	1	4,115
7	1	-	1	-	6	No		No							0	2	23	50	24	29,762
	0	-	4	-	3	No		No						0	1	15	43	35	6	10,004
6	0	-	3	-	4	No		No							0	3	27	49	21	15,379
	1	-	0	-	7	No		No								0	8	46	46	5,177
5	0	-	2	-	5	No		No								0	11	46	42	14,509
4	0	-	1	-	6	No		No								0	3	32	65	8,766
3	0	-	0	-	7	No		No									0	14	86	2,971
	0	-	0	-	8	No		No										4	96	1,700

Total:						21.8	%	21.8	%	22	13	15	13	12	9	7	5	2	1	4,899,235

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dayton FC 5 FC Terrain 1	+0.0
Team Dayton 7 STOMP 2	+0.0

Week of 9/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
DU XL 2 Greene FC 0	-1.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
STOMP vs Rogues	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Dayton Dynasty vs Team Dayton	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Gunners FC vs Dayton FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

27	8	-	0	-	0	100
24	7	-	0	-	1	99	1
	7	-	0	-	0	100	0
23	6	-	2	-	0	100	0
22	6	-	1	-	1	96	4	0
21	6	-	0	-	2	86	13	1	0
20	5	-	2	-	1	82	16	2	0
	5	-	2	-	0	95	5	0
19	5	-	1	-	2	59	30	10	1	0
18	5	-	0	-	3	34	36	25	4	0
	4	-	3	-	0	75	21	4	0
17	4	-	2	-	1	49	35	15	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	2	22	38	33	7	0	0
	4	-	1	-	3	6	22	44	24	4	0
	3	-	4	-	0	36	40	22	3	0
15	3	-	3	-	2	2	11	38	38	11	1	0
	3	-	3	-	1	12	31	41	15	1	0
	4	-	0	-	4	1	6	30	42	19	2	0
14	3	-	2	-	3	0	1	14	40	35	9	1	0
	2	-	5	-	1	0	4	23	43	25	4	0
	2	-	5	-	0	6	18	42	29	6	0
13	3	-	1	-	4	0	0	2	17	42	32	7	0	0
12	2	-	3	-	2	0	0	4	26	44	23	3	0	0
	3	-	0	-	5			0	2	21	45	28	4	0
	1	-	6	-	1			1	9	35	41	13	1	0
	1	-	6	-	0		1	9	35	42	14	1
11	2	-	2	-	3		0	0	5	28	44	20	2	0
	1	-	5	-	2			0	1	11	38	38	11	1	0
	0	-	8	-	0				1	19	41	35	4
10	2	-	1	-	4				0	7	32	43	16	1	0
	1	-	4	-	3				0	1	15	42	34	7	0
9	2	-	0	-	5				0	1	10	39	39	10	1
	2	-	0	-	6					0	2	21	46	28	4
	0	-	6	-	1					2	20	45	30	4	0
8	1	-	2	-	4					0	4	26	46	21	2
	1	-	2	-	5					0	1	11	42	38	8
	0	-	5	-	2					0	6	33	44	16	1
7	1	-	1	-	6						0	2	23	50	24
	0	-	4	-	3					0	1	15	43	35	6
6	0	-	3	-	4						0	3	27	49	21
	1	-	0	-	7							0	8	46	46
5	0	-	2	-	5							0	11	46	42
4	0	-	1	-	6							0	3	32	65
3	0	-	0	-	7								0	14	86
	0	-	0	-	8									4	96

Total:						22	13	15	13	12	9	7	5	2	1