"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Stars 0 Warriors 10 -0.2
Ice_Dogs 3 Firebirds 6 -0.2
Delco_Purple 4 Wildcats 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Delco_White vs Penguins-6.6-0.7+6.9
-1.3-0.1+1.4
Senators vs Penguins-6.4-0.6+6.7
-1.4-0.0+1.4
OY_Black vs OY_Red-0.3*+0.1+0.3
Phantoms vs Ice_Dogs-0.3*+0.1+0.3
Delco_Purple vs Rebels-0.3*+0.1+0.3
Bears vs Colonials_Red+0.2*+0.0-0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Knights vs Colonials_Red+0.2*+0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Penguins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTTplayoffs123456789101112131415161718192021Count
33-38In100301*
32152-02In991354*
31142-03In955965*
30143-02In891102,087*
29133-03In7821204,295*
28123-04In59347108,527*
27124-03In36431830015,170*
26114-04100.0%15373213300024,887*
25115-0399.541933281330017,436
104-0599.441833281341020,906*
24105-0493.4041629281651023,605
116-0293.40416282816510031,101*
23106-0365.8003112329221020031,844
95-0563.50021022292310310023,847
117-0165.2003102328221030017,212*
2296-0420.0001514262718720040,402
107-0221.5001515262717720027,518
85-0618.401413252819820023,960*
2197-031.7002717272615510059,401*
86-051.3001616262717610047,204*
2087-040.0000291928241341051,091
98-020.000031021272312310034,114
76-060.0002818272514510031,665*
1988-03Out0131123282110200050,960
77-05Out003102228231130041,099
99-01Out013102228221020028,694*
1878-04Out001414262819710051,051
89-02Out001515262717610034,466
67-06Out001413242920820031,402*
1779-03Out000282030251230045,722
68-05Out000271930261330035,887
810-01Out00282029261230025,147*
1669-04Out015152930164039,610
710-02Out0015162929153027,424
58-06Out014142931175023,946*
15610-03Out01414313316331,951
59-05Out00313293417341,110*
14510-04Out0031634351124,107
611-02Out0031535341230,725*
13511-03Out00523442717,341
410-05Out00522442920,686*
12411-04Out0111404824,926*
11412-03Out004296714,999*
10312-04Out0117828,647*
9313-03Out0010904,378*
8314-02Out4962,133*
7214-03Out199913*
6215-02Out0100366*
5115-03Out199135*
0-4Out100205*
Total:17.8%2233444455566666666651,195,922

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs