Steel Blue Playoff Chances Summer2011

Plays Forest Green, playoff odds up 0.04 to 0.4%

1-3-0 .250

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steel Blue 16 Lime 11			+2.6
Military Green 16 Sapphire Blue 11			+0.0
Navy 2 Forest Green 16			-0.3
Red 14 Orange 13			-0.1
Dark Chocolate 16 Light Blue 7			+0.1
Maroon 0 Kiwi 16			+0.1
Texas Orange 6 Gold 15			+0.0
Teal 11 Irish Green 16			+0.0
Yellow 16 Paprika 2			+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steel Blue vs Grey	+1.8OutOut		+2.9-0.1-0.6
Maroon vs Hot Pink	+0.6*-0.0-0.1
Dark Chocolate vs Orange	+0.3*-0.1-0.2		-0.2-0.1+0.1
Dark Purple vs Royal Blue	+0.2-0.2-0.2
Carolina Blue vs Lime	-0.2*-0.1+0.2		+0.2-0.4-0.2
Red vs Sapphire Blue	-0.1*+0.1+0.2		+0.1-0.4-0.2
Teal vs Light Blue			-0.2+0.2+0.2
Texas Orange vs Irish Green			-0.2-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Steel Blue finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Count

3		2	-	0	-	0	12.0	%							1	11	32	35	16	4	1	0	0	0									33,161
2	.5	1	-	0	-	1	Out														0	0	5	25	41	24	4	0					3,846
2		1	-	1	-	0	Out															0	1	13	35	35	14	2	0	0			310,357
		0	-	0	-	2	Out																			8	36	48	8				112
1	.5	0	-	1	-	1	Out																			6	39	48	7	0			17,683
1		0	-	2	-	0	Out																				21	51	27	1	0	0	721,965

Total:							0.4	%							0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	10	19	35	18	0	0	0	1,087,124

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Steel Blue 16 Lime 11	-2.6
Navy 2 Forest Green 16	+0.3
Red 14 Orange 13	+0.1
Dark Chocolate 16 Light Blue 7	-0.1
Maroon 0 Kiwi 16	-0.1
Texas Orange 6 Gold 15	-0.0
Teal 11 Irish Green 16	-0.0
Military Green 16 Sapphire Blue 11	-0.0
Yellow 16 Paprika 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Steel Blue vs Grey	-2.9+0.0+0.6
Carolina Blue vs Lime	-0.2+0.4+0.2
Red vs Sapphire Blue	-0.1+0.4+0.2
Teal vs Light Blue	+0.2-0.2-0.2
Dark Chocolate vs Orange	+0.2+0.1-0.1
Texas Orange vs Irish Green	+0.2+0.1-0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

3		2	-	0	-	0							1	11	28	36	16	5	1	0	0	0
2	.5	1	-	0	-	1													0	0	5	25	41	24	4	0
2		1	-	1	-	0														0	1	13	35	35	14	2	0	0
		0	-	0	-	2															3	15	29	32	20	2
1	.5	0	-	1	-	1																		6	39	48	7	0
1		0	-	2	-	0																			21	51	28	1	0	0

Total:													0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	10	19	35	18	0	0	0