Orange Playoff Chances Summer2011

Plays at Texas Orange, playoff odds down 0.1 to 4.4%

2-2-0 .500

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red 14 Orange 13	-35.3		-2.8
Navy 2 Forest Green 16	+0.9		+0.1
Maroon 0 Kiwi 16	-0.9		-0.1
Dark Purple 15 Grey 14	-0.6
Texas Orange 6 Gold 15	-0.6		-0.0
Carolina Blue 8 Hot Pink 14	+0.6		+0.0
Steel Blue 16 Lime 11	+0.5		+0.1
Milk Chocolate 16 Royal Blue 15	+0.2
Teal 11 Irish Green 16	*-0.1		-0.0
Military Green 16 Sapphire Blue 11	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steel Blue vs Grey	+8.6+8.1-1.9		+0.3+0.4-0.1
Maroon vs Hot Pink	+7.8+7.3-1.1		+0.3+0.4-0.0
Dark Chocolate vs Orange	Out-1.1+3.3		-3.0+1.6+2.2
Dark Purple vs Royal Blue	*-0.0+5.9-0.1		+0.1+0.3-0.2
Red vs Sapphire Blue	-1.0+1.4+1.8		-0.1+0.4+0.1
Carolina Blue vs Lime	-1.2+1.0+1.1		-0.1+0.3+0.1
Military Green vs Kiwi	+0.9+0.8-0.6
Texas Orange vs Irish Green			-0.1*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Orange finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Count

4		2	-	0	-	0	9.9	%				0	0	0	1	9	28	42	18	2													482,815
3	.5	1	-	0	-	1	4.1							0	0	4	17	38	34	6	0	0											14,750
3		1	-	1	-	0	0.0								0	0	0	0	0	1	8	23	33	24	9	1	0	0					487,232
		0	-	0	-	2	Out													1	3	21	50	24		1							96
2	.5	0	-	1	-	1	Out														1	6	17	32	35	8	1						6,755
2		0	-	2	-	0	Out															0	0	6	23	39	25	6	0	0			95,476

Total:							4.4	%				0	0	0	1	4	13	19	9	1	3	10	15	12	6	4	2	0	0	0			1,087,124

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red 14 Orange 13	+2.8
Steel Blue 16 Lime 11	-0.1
Navy 2 Forest Green 16	-0.1
Maroon 0 Kiwi 16	+0.1
Dark Chocolate 16 Light Blue 7	+0.1
Texas Orange 6 Gold 15	+0.0
Carolina Blue 8 Hot Pink 14	-0.0
Teal 11 Irish Green 16	+0.0
Military Green 16 Sapphire Blue 11	+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dark Chocolate vs Orange	+3.0-1.6-2.2
Steel Blue vs Grey	-0.3-0.4+0.1
Maroon vs Hot Pink	-0.3-0.4+0.0
Dark Purple vs Royal Blue	-0.1-0.3+0.2
Red vs Sapphire Blue	+0.1-0.4-0.1
Carolina Blue vs Lime	+0.1-0.3-0.1
Texas Orange vs Irish Green	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

4		2	-	0	-	0				0	0	0	1	9	28	42	18	2
3	.5	1	-	0	-	1						0	0	4	17	38	34	6	0	0
3		1	-	1	-	0							0	0	0	0	0	1	8	23	33	24	9	1	0	0
		0	-	0	-	2											1	4	14	32	40	9
2	.5	0	-	1	-	1													1	6	17	32	35	8	1
2		0	-	2	-	0														0	0	6	23	39	25	6	0	0

Total:										0	0	0	1	4	13	19	9	1	3	10	15	12	6	4	2	0	0	0