Irish Green Playoff Chances Summer2011

Plays at Navy, playoff odds down 0.06 to 99.5%

4-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Teal 11 Irish Green 16	+3.1		+0.3
Red 14 Orange 13	+1.6		+0.1
Dark Purple 15 Grey 14	-0.9		+0.2
Steel Blue 16 Lime 11	+0.4
Carolina Blue 8 Hot Pink 14	+0.4
Maroon 0 Kiwi 16	-0.3		-0.0
Texas Orange 6 Gold 15	-0.2		-0.0
Navy 2 Forest Green 16	-0.1
Yellow 16 Paprika 2	+0.1		-0.1
Milk Chocolate 16 Royal Blue 15	*+0.1		+0.0
Military Green 16 Sapphire Blue 11			-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Texas Orange vs Irish Green	-6.5InIn		-1.5+0.0+0.1
Steel Blue vs Grey	+0.3+0.3-0.1
Red vs Sapphire Blue	+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Dark Purple vs Royal Blue	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Military Green vs Kiwi			-0.3+0.3+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Irish Green finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Count

6		2	-	0	-	0	In		0	72	28																						871,987
5	.5	1	-	0	-	1	In			68	32																						19,459
5		1	-	1	-	0	In			3	57	37	2																				184,726
		0	-	0	-	2	In			2	31	56	12																				118
4	.5	0	-	1	-	1	In			1	40	45	14																				1,950
4		0	-	2	-	0	44.0	%				0	3	7	11	23	36	18	1	0													8,884

Total:							99.5	%	0	59	33	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0													1,087,124

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Teal 11 Irish Green 16	-0.3
Dark Purple 15 Grey 14	-0.2
Yellow 16 Paprika 2	+0.1
Red 14 Orange 13	-0.1
Military Green 16 Sapphire Blue 11	+0.0
Milk Chocolate 16 Royal Blue 15	-0.0
Maroon 0 Kiwi 16	+0.0
Texas Orange 6 Gold 15	+0.0
Carolina Blue 8 Hot Pink 14	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Texas Orange vs Irish Green	+1.5-0.0-0.1
Military Green vs Kiwi	+0.3-0.3-0.2

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

6		2	-	0	-	0	0	72	28
5	.5	1	-	0	-	1		68	32
5		1	-	1	-	0		3	57	37	2
		0	-	0	-	2		2	31	56	12
4	.5	0	-	1	-	1		1	40	45	14
4		0	-	2	-	0				0	3	7	11	23	36	18	1	0

Total:							0	59	33	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0