"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 1/25100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Athletico-PR 0 Flamengo 1 -1.9
+1.7
-0.6
Santos 0 Goias 0 +0.3
+0.0
Internacional 0 Gremio 0 +0.2
Fluminense 0 Botafogo 0 +0.2
-0.1
Ceara 0 Palmeiras 0 +0.2
+0.0
Sport Recife 0 Bahia 0 +0.1
-0.1
+0.1
Atletico-GO 0 Fortaleza 0 -0.1
+0.1
Vasco da Gama 0 Atletico-MG 0 +0.0
Sao Paulo 0 Coritiba 0 -0.1
Corinthians 0 Bragantino 0 -0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/1100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Ceara vs Athletico-PR-1.7-1.0+2.4
+4.9-0.3-4.8
-1.2-0.2+1.3
Coritiba vs Gremio+0.5+0.2-0.4
+0.7-0.2-0.3
Fluminense vs Goias-0.3+0.2+0.5
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Internacional vs Bragantino-0.4+0.1+0.4
-0.4+0.0+0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Palmeiras vs Botafogo-0.3+0.2+0.5
-0.3-0.1+0.7
Santos vs Corinthians-0.4+0.1+0.4
-0.4*+0.0+0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Bahia+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.5-0.1-0.5
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Atletico-GO vs Sao Paulo+0.6+0.0-0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza-0.2+0.0+0.4
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Sport Recife vs Flamengo+0.5+0.1-0.2
-0.2-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Athletico-PR finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
556-0-0No96.6%07353816300No61,623
535-1-0No69.7007263623610No235,180
525-0-1No40.10110283620400No382,162
514-2-0No20.60041735331100No390,483
504-1-1No5.8015224227300No1,263,163
494-0-2No0.90018334511100No1,022,823
3-3-0No1.00019344412100No343,576
483-2-1No0.10021949254000No1,666,501
473-1-2No0.00063639163000No2,693,769
2-4-0No0.0005344117300No169,969
463-0-3NoNo01163631133000No1,450,682
2-3-1NoNo01163731122000No1,099,084
452-2-2NoNo0052134261120000.0%2,656,593
1-5-0NoNo00420352711200No44,651
442-1-3NoNo0162032261230000.02,853,540
1-4-1NoNo016213226112000.0361,322
431-3-2NoNo017203127123000.21,163,792
2-0-4NoNo016183128133000.31,147,636
0-6-0NoNo01619312813300.34,869
421-2-3NoNo0015183129132002.61,874,466
0-5-1NoNo0015183129133002.847,633
411-1-4NoNo0014173332121013.71,502,402
0-4-2NoNo0015173331121013.9190,850
401-0-5NoNo00418393270039.4483,235
0-3-3NoNo000418383270039.6409,518
390-2-4NoNo00052446213070.4491,218
380-1-5NoNo0011045368089.8313,898
370-0-6NoNo02324619197.686,722
Total:No2.2%0001137141413111087641005.5%24,411,360
Points
Chance Will Win Championship