How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/21 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Gremio 2 Sao Paulo 1 +0.1 -0.7 Flamengo 2 Botafogo 0 -0.1 -0.1 +0.0 Santos 1 Flamengo 1 +0.1 *+0.1 America-MG 2 Internacional 0 +0.1 +0.5 +0.2 Sao Paulo 3 Corinthians 1 -0.1 Atletico-MG 2 Parana 0 -0.7 -0.1 Corinthians 2 Cruzeiro 0 +0.2 Fluminense 1 Palmeiras 0 +0.4 +0.1 Vitoria 1 Sport Recife 0 +0.3 +0.1 Botafogo 1 Chapecoense 0 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/29 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians +0.6-0.3-0.5 +8.2-2.5-7.1 -1.6+0.3+1.6 +0.9-0.3-0.8 Flamengo vs Sport Recife -0.2+0.1+0.2 *+0.0+0.1-0.2 -0.1*+0.0+0.1 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo +0.1+0.1-0.1 -0.5+0.3+0.3 Bahia vs Atletico-MG +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.5+0.3-0.5 +0.2*-0.0-0.1 Chapecoense vs Gremio +0.1+0.0-0.0 +0.7+0.3-0.6 +0.3-0.1-0.2 Internacional vs Botafogo -0.4+0.4+0.2 -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Palmeiras vs Parana -0.7+0.4+0.8 -0.1*-0.0+0.3 Ceara vs Fluminense +0.6+0.3-0.5 +0.1-0.0*-0.0 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Atletico-PR vs Vitoria +0.2+0.1-0.2 +0.1-0.1*+0.0 Santos vs America-MG *+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Vasco da Gama finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 83 -94 Yes Yes 100 No 1,262 * 82 20 - 3 - 2 97.1 % Yes 97 3 No 69 * 81 20 - 2 - 3 97.5 Yes 98 2 No 161 * 80 19 - 4 - 2 98.3 Yes 98 2 No 297 * 79 19 - 3 - 3 94.6 Yes 95 5 No 558 * 78 18 - 5 - 2 91.6 Yes 92 8 No 1,014 * 77 18 - 4 - 3 87.3 Yes 87 13 0 No 1,814 * 76 18 - 3 - 4 83.7 Yes 84 16 0 No 2,987 * 75 17 - 5 - 3 77.0 Yes 77 22 1 No 4,970 * 74 17 - 4 - 4 70.0 Yes 70 28 2 0 No 7,866 * 73 17 - 3 - 5 61.6 Yes 62 34 4 0 No 12,183 * 72 16 - 5 - 4 51.7 Yes 52 40 8 0 No 18,456 * 71 16 - 4 - 5 41.9 Yes 42 45 12 1 0 No 27,242 * 70 15 - 6 - 4 32.5 Yes 33 47 18 2 0 No 39,038 * 69 15 - 5 - 5 23.3 Yes 23 46 25 5 0 0 No 54,834 * 68 15 - 4 - 6 15.3 Yes 15 42 32 9 1 0 No 75,154 * 67 14 - 6 - 5 9.3 100.0 % 9 35 38 15 3 0 0 No 101,577 * 66 14 - 5 - 6 4.9 100.0 5 26 39 23 6 1 0 No 132,454 * 65 14 - 4 - 7 2.3 99.9 2 17 37 30 11 2 0 0 No 169,478 * 64 13 - 6 - 6 1.0 99.5 1 10 30 35 19 5 1 0 No 212,559 * 63 13 - 5 - 7 0.3 98.2 0 5 21 35 27 10 2 0 0 No 258,056 * 62 13 - 4 - 8 0.1 94.9 0 2 13 30 33 17 5 1 0 No 309,944 * 61 12 - 6 - 7 0.0 88.1 0 1 6 22 34 26 10 2 0 0 No 360,333 * 60 12 - 5 - 8 0.0 75.8 0 0 2 12 29 32 18 5 1 0 0 No 412,769 * 59 11 - 7 - 7 0.0 58.6 0 0 1 6 20 32 27 12 2 0 0 0 No 462,556 * 58 11 - 6 - 8 No 39.2 0 0 2 11 26 32 21 7 1 0 0 No 503,746 * 57 11 - 5 - 9 No 21.8 0 0 1 5 17 31 29 14 4 0 0 0 No 539,524 * 56 10 - 7 - 8 No 9.8 0 0 1 8 23 32 24 9 2 0 0 0 No 563,663 * 55 10 - 6 - 9 No 3.4 0 0 3 13 28 31 18 6 1 0 0 No 576,377 * 54 10 - 5 - 10 No 0.9 0 0 0 1 6 18 31 28 13 3 0 0 No 576,555 * 53 9 - 7 - 9 No 0.2 0 0 2 9 24 32 23 9 2 0 0 0 No 564,454 * 52 9 - 6 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 0 3 14 28 31 18 5 1 0 0 No 540,015 * 51 9 - 5 - 11 No 0.0 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 0 0.0 % 504,130 * 50 8 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 2 10 24 32 22 8 2 0 0 0.0 460,086 * 49 8 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 0 4 14 28 30 17 5 1 0 0 0.0 411,650 * 48 8 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 1 6 20 32 27 12 3 0 0 0.2 358,468 * 47 7 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 0 2 11 25 32 21 7 1 0 0 1.1 304,791 * 46 7 - 6 - 12 No No 0 1 4 16 30 30 15 3 0 0 3.7 253,562 * 45 7 - 5 - 13 No No 0 0 1 8 23 34 25 8 1 0 9.5 204,813 * 44 6 - 7 - 12 No No 0 0 3 14 30 32 16 3 0 0 20.1 162,378 * 43 6 - 6 - 13 No No 0 0 1 7 22 35 26 8 1 0 35.1 125,066 * 42 6 - 5 - 14 No No 0 0 3 13 31 35 16 3 0 52.7 93,413 * 41 5 - 7 - 13 No No 0 0 1 7 24 37 25 6 0 68.9 67,542 * 40 5 - 6 - 14 No No 0 0 3 15 35 34 12 1 82.2 48,516 * 39 5 - 5 - 15 No No 0 1 8 28 40 20 2 91.0 32,954 * 38 4 - 7 - 14 No No 0 0 4 20 41 29 5 96.0 22,201 * 37 4 - 6 - 15 No No 0 1 13 38 38 10 98.5 14,179 * 36 4 - 5 - 16 No No 0 1 7 31 46 16 99.5 8,816 * 35 3 - 7 - 15 No No 0 3 23 48 26 99.9 5,419 * 34 3 - 6 - 16 No No 0 2 16 47 36 100.0 3,034 * 33 3 - 5 - 17 No No 0 0 10 48 41 99.9 1,670 * 32 2 - 7 - 16 No No 6 38 56 Yes 984 * 31 2 - 6 - 17 No No 4 32 63 Yes 501 * 30 2 - 5 - 18 No No 1 26 74 Yes 234 * 29 2 - 4 - 19 No No 14 86 Yes 103 * 28 1 - 6 - 18 No No 21 79 Yes 57 * 19 -27 No No 100 Yes 1,228 * Total: 1.1 % 28.2 % 1 3 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 3.5 % 9,617,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship