How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/21 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Fluminense 1 Palmeiras 0 -1.2 -8.7 +0.4 -0.7 Santos 1 Flamengo 1 +0.3 *+0.1 Flamengo 2 Botafogo 0 -0.3 *+0.1 Sao Paulo 3 Corinthians 1 -0.2 +0.2 Gremio 2 Sao Paulo 1 +0.2 -0.9 America-MG 2 Internacional 0 +0.1 +0.6 +0.1 Corinthians 2 Cruzeiro 0 +0.1 +0.1 Atletico-MG 2 Parana 0 -0.1 -0.9 Vitoria 1 Sport Recife 0 +0.3 Botafogo 1 Chapecoense 0 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/29 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Palmeiras vs Parana +0.8-0.6-0.9 +7.4-4.5-9.1 -0.7+0.2+1.1 +0.7-0.4-0.9 Flamengo vs Sport Recife -0.3+0.2+0.4 +0.1+0.1-0.3 -0.0*+0.0+0.1 Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo +0.1+0.1-0.2 -0.7+0.3+0.4 Bahia vs Atletico-MG +0.1+0.1-0.1 +0.6+0.4-0.6 +0.1*-0.0-0.1 Internacional vs Botafogo -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.5+0.5+0.2 Chapecoense vs Gremio +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.9+0.4-0.8 +0.1*-0.0-0.1 Ceara vs Fluminense +0.8+0.3-0.6 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians -0.1+0.6-0.2 Atletico-PR vs Vitoria +0.3+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Palmeiras finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 84 -92 Yes Yes 100 No 1,264 * 83 19 - 3 - 1 98.7 % Yes 99 1 No 78 * 82 19 - 2 - 2 98.7 Yes 99 1 No 155 * 81 18 - 4 - 1 96.1 Yes 96 4 No 307 * 80 18 - 3 - 2 95.0 Yes 95 5 No 700 * 79 18 - 2 - 3 93.1 Yes 93 7 0 No 1,208 * 78 17 - 4 - 2 90.4 Yes 90 9 0 No 2,140 * 77 17 - 3 - 3 86.6 Yes 87 13 0 No 3,649 * 76 17 - 2 - 4 81.2 Yes 81 18 1 No 6,098 * 75 16 - 4 - 3 74.8 Yes 75 23 2 0 No 9,764 * 74 16 - 3 - 4 67.5 Yes 68 30 3 0 No 15,509 * 73 15 - 5 - 3 59.4 Yes 59 35 5 0 No 23,974 * 72 15 - 4 - 4 49.3 Yes 49 42 9 0 0 No 35,487 * 71 15 - 3 - 5 39.7 Yes 40 46 13 1 0 0 No 51,496 * 70 14 - 5 - 4 30.5 Yes 30 47 20 3 0 0 No 72,247 * 69 14 - 4 - 5 21.5 Yes 22 46 27 6 0 0 No 98,053 * 68 14 - 3 - 6 14.0 100.0 % 14 41 34 10 1 0 0 No 131,425 * 67 13 - 5 - 5 8.3 100.0 8 34 38 17 3 0 0 No 169,984 * 66 13 - 4 - 6 4.4 100.0 4 25 40 24 6 1 0 0 No 214,831 * 65 12 - 6 - 5 2.1 99.9 2 16 36 31 12 2 0 0 No 265,452 * 64 12 - 5 - 6 0.8 99.5 1 9 29 36 19 5 1 0 0 0 No 320,773 * 63 12 - 4 - 7 0.3 98.2 0 4 20 36 27 10 2 0 0 No 376,388 * 62 11 - 6 - 6 0.1 95.0 0 2 12 30 33 17 4 1 0 No 432,533 * 61 11 - 5 - 7 0.0 88.1 0 1 6 21 34 26 10 2 0 0 No 483,975 * 60 11 - 4 - 8 0.0 76.4 0 0 2 12 29 32 18 5 1 0 0 No 530,964 * 59 10 - 6 - 7 No 59.4 0 1 6 20 33 27 11 2 0 0 0 No 565,930 * 58 10 - 5 - 8 No 40.1 0 0 2 11 27 32 20 6 1 0 0 No 589,630 * 57 10 - 4 - 9 No 22.6 0 0 1 5 17 31 29 14 3 0 0 0 No 600,335 * 56 9 - 6 - 8 No 10.2 0 0 2 9 23 32 23 9 2 0 0 No 597,342 * 55 9 - 5 - 9 No 3.5 0 0 0 3 13 28 31 18 5 1 0 0 No 578,584 * 54 8 - 7 - 8 No 0.9 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 0 No 547,920 * 53 8 - 6 - 9 No 0.2 0 0 0 2 10 24 32 23 9 2 0 0 No 506,382 * 52 8 - 5 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 0 4 14 28 30 18 6 1 0 0 No 455,425 * 51 7 - 7 - 9 No 0.0 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 No 401,154 * 50 7 - 6 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 0 2 9 23 32 23 9 2 0 0 0 0.0 % 343,582 * 49 7 - 5 - 11 No No 0 0 0 3 14 28 31 18 5 1 0 0.0 285,986 * 48 6 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 0 0.3 232,439 * 47 6 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 2 10 24 33 23 8 1 0 0 1.3 184,141 * 46 6 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 0 4 14 29 31 16 4 0 0 4.2 141,323 * 45 5 - 7 - 11 No No 0 1 7 21 34 26 10 1 0 11.0 106,711 * 44 5 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 2 12 29 33 18 4 0 0 22.7 76,971 * 43 5 - 5 - 13 No No 0 1 5 20 35 28 9 1 0 38.7 54,288 * 42 4 - 7 - 12 No No 0 2 11 30 36 17 3 0 56.3 37,527 * 41 4 - 6 - 13 No No 0 1 5 21 38 28 7 0 72.9 24,442 * 40 4 - 5 - 14 No No 0 0 2 13 35 36 13 1 84.6 15,645 * 39 3 - 7 - 13 No No 0 1 7 27 42 21 3 92.1 9,663 * 38 3 - 6 - 14 No No 0 3 19 43 30 5 96.7 5,779 * 37 3 - 5 - 15 No No 0 1 12 38 39 10 98.8 3,301 * 36 2 - 7 - 14 No No 0 7 30 47 16 99.6 1,790 * 35 2 - 6 - 15 No No 2 23 51 23 Yes 949 * 34 2 - 5 - 16 No No 1 17 51 31 Yes 471 * 33 2 - 4 - 17 No No 1 12 45 42 Yes 228 * 32 1 - 6 - 16 No No 3 42 55 Yes 104 * 31 1 - 5 - 17 No No 43 57 Yes 46 * 30 1 - 4 - 18 No No 29 71 Yes 14 * 29 0 - 6 - 17 No No 13 88 Yes 8 * 28 1 - 2 - 20 No No 50 50 Yes 2 * 23 0 - 0 - 23 No No 2 98 Yes 1,194 Total: 1.9 % 39.8 % 2 4 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1.4 % 9,617,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship