"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/28100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Ponte Preta 1 Corinthians 0 +1.6
Sao Paulo 0 Santos 1 -0.2
-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Avai vs Gremio-2.3-1.5+2.1
-2.2-0.4+1.5
-0.6-0.2+0.4
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro-0.5+0.2+0.4
+0.2+0.0-0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo-0.1+0.1*+0.0
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama*+0.0+0.2-0.1
Atletico-PR vs Chapecoense-0.1+0.1+0.0
Fluminense vs Bahia*+0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 11/4100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Gremio vs Flamengo+2.5-1.3-2.3
+1.7+0.1-2.2
+0.5-0.1-0.6
Ponte Preta vs Gremio-2.3-1.5+2.1
-2.2-0.4+1.5
-0.6-0.2+0.4
Atletico-PR vs Corinthians+1.8+0.6-1.3
-0.3+0.1+0.1
Corinthians vs Palmeiras-1.1+0.7+0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Santos vs Vasco da Gama-0.5+0.3+0.5
+0.3+0.1-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Santos vs Atletico-MG-0.4+0.3+0.5
+0.2+0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Vitoria vs Palmeiras+0.5+0.3-0.4
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-PR-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Sport Recife vs Botafogo+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria-0.3+0.2+0.4
Atletico-MG vs Atletico-GO-0.2+0.2+0.3
Botafogo vs Fluminense-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Chapecoense vs Sport Recife-0.1+0.1+0.1
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense+0.1+0.1-0.1
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1+0.0
Avai vs Bahia+0.1+0.1-0.1
Bahia vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Gremio finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
748-0-083.0%Yes83170No20,281
727-1-062.5Yes623610No81,175
717-0-145.9Yes464760No103,310
706-2-034.7Yes35541110No152,136
696-1-120.9Yes21552220No385,162
686-0-210.1Yes10473670No241,583
5-3-011.3Yes11503260No162,946
675-2-15.3Yes539431300No613,141
665-1-21.8Yes225482410No767,551
4-4-01.8Yes225472510No107,532
654-3-10.5Yes114443830No543,178
5-0-30.5Yes012453930No317,687
644-2-20.1Yes073650700No1,013,232
3-5-00.1Yes063451900No45,847
634-1-30.0Yes0224581610No835,515
3-4-10.0Yes0222571810No285,991
623-3-20.0100.0%01125529400No710,379
4-0-40.0100.001125528400No256,535
2-6-00.0Yes0010523250No12,059
613-2-30.0100.00054539910No876,380
2-5-1No100.00443411010No91,245
603-1-4No100.00231461920No536,726
2-4-2No99.901294720300No280,458
1-7-0No99.9123502340No1,807
592-3-3No99.5001643328000No458,044
3-0-5No99.60164233800No130,497
1-6-1No99.301442341010No15,915
582-2-4No98.007334117200No419,375
1-5-2No97.40631421820No58,578
0-8-0No92.942743197No113
572-1-5No92.902194130700No203,190
1-4-3No91.502184131810No119,789
0-7-1No85.91134032122No1,236
561-3-4No78.1073041183000No145,503
2-0-6No78.6007304118300No40,906
0-6-2No73.30627402250No4,972
551-2-5No58.8021740319100No105,536
0-5-3No54.8021538331110No12,431
541-1-6No34.6006284021400No42,094
0-4-4No31.3062538246100No19,036
530-3-5No13.20112333416300No18,284
1-0-7No14.20213333614300No7,243
520-2-6No4.0042136281020No10,878
510-1-7No0.51725372371No3,659
500-0-8No0.201930342050No1,825
Total:3.4%98.0%312213118941000000No10,260,960
Points
Chance Will Win Championship