How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/21 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Gremio 2 Sao Paulo 1 +1.9 +10.2 -0.4 +0.9 Flamengo 2 Botafogo 0 -0.8 *+0.1 Sao Paulo 3 Corinthians 1 -0.6 +0.2 Santos 1 Flamengo 1 +0.2 +0.2 America-MG 2 Internacional 0 +0.2 +0.6 +0.1 Corinthians 2 Cruzeiro 0 +0.1 +0.3 Atletico-MG 2 Parana 0 -0.1 -0.9 -0.0 Fluminense 1 Palmeiras 0 +0.3 Vitoria 1 Sport Recife 0 +0.4 Botafogo 1 Chapecoense 0 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/29 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Chapecoense vs Gremio -2.6-1.4+2.5 -8.6-3.4+7.4 +0.2*+0.0-0.2 -0.7-0.3+0.6 Flamengo vs Sport Recife -0.9+0.6+1.1 *+0.1+0.2-0.3 Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo +0.5+0.4-0.6 -0.7+0.3+0.4 Bahia vs Atletico-MG +0.3+0.2-0.3 +0.5+0.4-0.6 Internacional vs Botafogo -0.2+0.1+0.2 -0.4+0.5+0.2 Palmeiras vs Parana -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.8+0.5+1.0 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Ceara vs Fluminense +0.7+0.5-0.6 Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians -0.1+0.5-0.2 Atletico-PR vs Vitoria +0.2+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Gremio finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 86 -95 Yes Yes 100 No 1,504 * 85 19 - 2 - 2 99.7 % Yes 100 0 No 359 * 84 18 - 4 - 1 99.9 Yes 100 0 No 728 * 83 18 - 3 - 2 99.2 Yes 99 1 No 1,369 * 82 18 - 2 - 3 98.4 Yes 98 2 No 2,440 * 81 17 - 4 - 2 97.8 Yes 98 2 No 4,114 * 80 17 - 3 - 3 96.2 Yes 96 4 0 No 7,180 * 79 16 - 5 - 2 94.8 Yes 95 5 0 No 11,177 * 78 16 - 4 - 3 91.1 Yes 91 9 0 No 17,436 * 77 16 - 3 - 4 87.4 Yes 87 12 0 No 26,367 * 76 15 - 5 - 3 82.5 Yes 83 17 1 0 No 39,741 * 75 15 - 4 - 4 76.5 Yes 77 22 1 0 No 56,988 * 74 15 - 3 - 5 69.0 Yes 69 28 3 0 No 79,897 * 73 14 - 5 - 4 60.2 Yes 60 35 5 0 No 108,581 * 72 14 - 4 - 5 50.6 Yes 51 41 8 0 0 No 143,367 * 71 13 - 6 - 4 40.6 Yes 41 45 13 1 0 No 185,373 * 70 13 - 5 - 5 31.1 Yes 31 47 19 2 0 0 No 232,712 * 69 13 - 4 - 6 22.3 Yes 22 46 26 5 0 0 No 286,044 * 68 12 - 6 - 5 14.6 100.0 % 15 42 33 9 1 0 0 No 340,385 * 67 12 - 5 - 6 8.9 100.0 9 35 38 15 2 0 0 No 398,067 * 66 12 - 4 - 7 4.8 100.0 5 26 40 23 5 0 0 No 453,160 * 65 11 - 6 - 6 2.2 99.9 2 18 38 30 10 1 0 0 No 503,344 * 64 11 - 5 - 7 0.9 99.6 1 10 32 36 17 4 0 0 0 No 545,263 * 63 11 - 4 - 8 0.3 98.6 0 5 23 37 26 8 1 0 0 No 576,908 * 62 10 - 6 - 7 0.1 96.1 0 2 14 32 33 15 4 0 0 No 597,763 * 61 10 - 5 - 8 0.0 90.2 0 1 7 24 35 24 8 1 0 0 No 600,498 * 60 9 - 7 - 7 0.0 79.5 0 0 3 14 31 31 16 4 1 0 0 No 591,798 * 59 9 - 6 - 8 0.0 63.2 0 0 1 7 22 33 25 10 2 0 0 No 568,136 * 58 9 - 5 - 9 No 43.7 0 0 3 13 28 32 18 6 1 0 0 No 533,897 * 57 8 - 7 - 8 No 25.2 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 0 No 488,364 * 56 8 - 6 - 9 No 11.7 0 0 2 10 24 32 22 8 2 0 0 0 No 434,821 * 55 8 - 5 - 10 No 4.2 0 0 0 4 14 28 30 17 5 1 0 0 0 No 378,385 * 54 7 - 7 - 9 No 1.1 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 0 No 322,172 * 53 7 - 6 - 10 No 0.2 0 0 0 2 10 23 31 23 9 2 0 0 No 266,370 * 52 7 - 5 - 11 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 3 13 27 30 18 6 1 0 0 No 214,060 * 51 6 - 7 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 1 6 18 30 28 14 4 0 0 No 168,302 * 50 6 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 2 9 22 31 24 10 2 0 0 0.0 % 128,417 * 49 6 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 3 12 26 31 19 6 1 0 0 0.1 95,476 * 48 5 - 7 - 11 No No 0 1 5 17 30 29 14 3 0 0 0.4 69,089 * 47 5 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 1 8 23 32 25 9 2 0 1.6 48,479 * 46 5 - 5 - 13 No No 0 0 3 13 28 32 18 5 1 0 5.2 32,774 * 45 4 - 7 - 12 No No 0 1 6 20 32 28 11 2 0 12.8 21,691 * 44 4 - 6 - 13 No No 0 0 2 11 27 34 20 5 0 25.7 13,757 * 43 4 - 5 - 14 No No 0 1 5 18 35 30 11 1 0 42.0 8,573 * 42 3 - 7 - 13 No No 0 1 10 29 37 19 3 0 59.2 5,037 * 41 3 - 6 - 14 No No 0 0 4 21 37 30 7 0 74.4 2,940 * 40 3 - 5 - 15 No No 2 12 34 37 13 1 86.3 1,551 * 39 3 - 4 - 16 No No 1 6 24 42 24 3 93.2 887 * 38 2 - 6 - 15 No No 3 19 43 31 4 96.8 464 * 37 2 - 5 - 16 No No 0 15 33 38 14 99.5 212 * 36 2 - 4 - 17 No No 4 31 53 13 Yes 78 * 35 2 - 3 - 18 No No 3 20 40 38 Yes 40 * 34 1 - 5 - 17 No No 32 27 41 Yes 22 * 33 1 - 4 - 18 No No 57 43 Yes 7 * 32 1 - 3 - 19 No No 100 Yes 1 31 0 - 5 - 18 No No 100 Yes 1 26 0 - 0 - 23 No No 0 8 92 Yes 1,194 Total: 7.0 % 66.4 % 7 11 13 13 12 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 % 9,617,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship