How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 6/18 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Flamengo 5 Chapecoense 1 +0.4 +3.9 -4.5 +1.0 Fluminense 2 Flamengo 2 -0.2 -1.2 +0.7 -0.2 Corinthians 3 Bahia 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Gremio 2 Coritiba 0 -0.1 Coritiba 0 Corinthians 0 +0.1 *+0.1 Cruzeiro 3 Gremio 3 +0.1 +0.2 Vitoria 0 Santos 2 -0.3 -0.2 Chapecoense 0 Botafogo 3 +0.2 +0.2 Sao Paulo 1 Atletico-MG 2 +0.2 +0.3 Avai 0 Fluminense 3 -0.2 -0.1 Palmeiras 1 Atletico-GO 0 -0.1 -0.1 Bahia 2 Palmeiras 4 +0.1 +0.2 Sport Recife 1 Vitoria 3 +0.1 +0.2 Botafogo 3 Vasco da Gama 1 *-0.1 Atletico-PR 1 Sao Paulo 0 +0.2 Atletico-MG 2 Sport Recife 2 -0.2 If winner is:HomeEmpateAway Week of 6/24 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Bahia vs Flamengo -0.4-0.2+0.5 -4.7-1.9+5.4 +2.6+0.4-2.6 -0.9-0.3+0.9 Gremio vs Corinthians -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.1+0.1*+0.0 Santos vs Sport Recife -0.6+0.3+0.6 -0.2*-0.0+0.3 Botafogo vs Avai -0.5+0.3+0.6 -0.1-0.1+0.2 Cruzeiro vs Coritiba +0.3+0.3-0.4 +0.1*-0.0-0.1 Sao Paulo vs Fluminense +0.3+0.2-0.4 +0.2-0.1-0.1 Chapecoense vs Atletico-MG -0.3+0.1+0.2 -0.1*-0.0+0.2 Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras -0.2+0.3*+0.0 Vasco da Gama vs Atletico-GO -0.2+0.1+0.2 -0.1-0.1+0.2 Atletico-PR vs Vitoria -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Flamengo finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - L - E wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 86 -101 Yes Yes 100 No 1,060 * 85 22 - 2 - 5 97.9 % Yes 98 2 No 47 * 84 22 - 3 - 4 97.1 Yes 97 3 No 103 * 83 22 - 4 - 3 95.9 Yes 96 4 No 169 * 82 21 - 3 - 5 91.8 Yes 92 8 No 306 * 81 21 - 4 - 4 91.2 Yes 91 8 0 No 520 * 80 20 - 3 - 6 86.5 Yes 86 13 0 No 873 * 79 20 - 4 - 5 84.1 Yes 84 15 1 No 1,383 * 78 20 - 5 - 4 78.4 Yes 78 21 1 No 2,269 * 77 19 - 4 - 6 71.4 Yes 71 27 2 No 3,725 * 76 19 - 5 - 5 65.7 Yes 66 31 3 0 No 5,722 * 75 19 - 6 - 4 57.5 Yes 58 37 5 0 No 8,492 * 74 18 - 5 - 6 49.4 Yes 49 43 8 0 No 12,679 * 73 18 - 6 - 5 41.4 100.0 % 41 46 12 1 0 No 18,239 * 72 18 - 7 - 4 33.2 100.0 33 49 17 1 0 No 25,747 * 71 17 - 6 - 6 25.9 100.0 26 50 23 2 0 No 35,494 * 70 17 - 7 - 5 18.9 99.8 19 48 29 4 0 0 No 48,286 * 69 16 - 6 - 7 13.3 99.5 13 44 36 7 0 0 0 No 64,228 * 68 16 - 7 - 6 8.4 98.9 8 38 41 11 1 0 No 83,557 * 67 16 - 8 - 5 5.1 97.4 5 30 45 17 2 0 0 No 106,992 * 66 15 - 7 - 7 2.7 94.3 3 22 45 24 5 1 0 No 134,455 * 65 15 - 8 - 6 1.3 89.0 1 15 41 31 10 1 0 0 No 164,573 * 64 15 - 9 - 5 0.5 80.4 1 9 35 36 16 3 0 0 0 No 199,769 * 63 14 - 8 - 7 0.2 68.6 0 5 26 38 23 7 1 0 0 No 236,090 * 62 14 - 9 - 6 0.1 53.5 0 2 17 35 31 13 3 0 0 0 No 272,329 * 61 14 - 10 - 5 0.0 37.6 0 1 9 27 34 21 6 1 0 0 No 311,585 * 60 13 - 9 - 7 0.0 22.9 0 0 4 18 32 28 13 3 0 0 0 No 348,229 * 59 13 - 10 - 6 No 11.9 0 2 10 26 32 21 8 1 0 0 No 381,217 * 58 12 - 9 - 8 No 5.0 0 0 5 17 30 28 15 4 1 0 0 No 410,384 * 57 12 - 10 - 7 No 1.7 0 0 2 8 22 31 24 10 2 0 0 0 No 433,878 * 56 12 - 11 - 6 No 0.4 0 0 3 13 26 30 19 7 1 0 0 0 No 447,820 * 55 11 - 10 - 8 No 0.1 0 0 1 5 17 29 27 15 5 1 0 0 No 455,589 * 54 11 - 11 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 0 2 8 20 30 25 12 3 0 0 0 No 453,560 * 53 11 - 12 - 6 No 0.0 0 0 0 3 11 24 30 22 9 2 0 0 No 443,366 * 52 10 - 11 - 8 No No 0 0 1 4 14 26 29 18 7 1 0 0 No 426,071 * 51 10 - 12 - 7 No No 0 0 0 1 6 17 28 28 15 5 1 0 0 0.0 % 398,059 * 50 10 - 13 - 6 No No 0 0 2 8 20 30 25 12 3 0 0 0 0.0 368,078 * 49 9 - 12 - 8 No No 0 0 0 2 10 23 30 22 9 2 0 0 0 0.2 333,074 * 48 9 - 13 - 7 No No 0 0 1 4 13 27 30 19 6 1 0 0 1.1 294,240 * 47 9 - 14 - 6 No No 0 0 1 6 17 30 28 14 4 0 0 4.2 255,186 * 46 8 - 13 - 8 No No 0 0 0 2 9 22 31 24 10 2 0 0 11.5 215,844 * 45 8 - 14 - 7 No No 0 0 0 3 13 27 31 19 5 1 0 24.7 179,175 * 44 8 - 15 - 6 No No 0 0 1 6 19 32 28 12 2 0 42.0 146,993 * 43 7 - 14 - 8 No No 0 0 2 11 27 34 21 5 1 60.2 116,198 * 42 7 - 15 - 7 No No 0 1 5 18 34 30 11 1 76.1 91,229 * 41 7 - 16 - 6 No No 0 0 2 11 29 36 19 3 86.9 68,144 * 40 6 - 15 - 8 No No 0 0 1 5 21 38 28 7 94.0 51,135 * 39 6 - 16 - 7 No No 0 0 2 14 35 36 12 97.4 37,053 * 38 6 - 17 - 6 No No 0 1 8 29 42 19 99.1 26,159 * 37 5 - 16 - 8 No No 0 0 4 22 46 27 99.7 17,921 * 36 5 - 17 - 7 No No 0 2 16 44 37 99.8 12,086 * 35 5 - 18 - 6 No No 1 11 40 48 Yes 7,982 * 34 4 - 17 - 8 No No 0 0 6 36 58 100.0 4,985 * 33 4 - 18 - 7 No No 0 3 30 67 Yes 3,101 * 32 4 - 19 - 6 No No 2 25 74 Yes 1,812 * 31 3 - 18 - 8 No No 1 19 79 Yes 1,031 * 30 3 - 19 - 7 No No 0 15 85 Yes 599 * 29 3 - 20 - 6 No No 10 90 Yes 336 * 28 3 - 21 - 5 No No 9 91 Yes 179 * 27 2 - 20 - 7 No No 1 99 Yes 74 * 26 2 - 21 - 6 No No 5 95 Yes 40 * 14 -25 No No 100 Yes 1,041 * Total: 1.1 % 17.5 % 1 3 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 6.2 % 8,170,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship