"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/28100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Ponte Preta 1 Corinthians 0 -10.8
-0.2
Sao Paulo 0 Santos 1 -2.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro-4.2+2.2+4.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Avai vs Gremio+1.3+0.9-1.2
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo+0.1+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 11/4100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Corinthians vs Palmeiras+15.9-2.2-18.8
Yes*+0.0-0.0
+0.3-0.0-0.3
Atletico-PR vs Corinthians-13.8-5.3+10.9
-0.0*+0.0Yes
-0.3-0.1+0.2
Santos vs Vasco da Gama-5.2+3.2+5.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Santos vs Atletico-MG-5.0+3.4+5.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Vitoria vs Palmeiras+4.6+2.6-3.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Gremio vs Flamengo-1.4+0.8+1.3
Ponte Preta vs Gremio+1.4+0.8-1.2
Botafogo vs Fluminense-0.2+0.1+0.2
Sport Recife vs Botafogo+0.1+0.1-0.1
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro*+0.0+0.1-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-PR-0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Corinthians finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
78-80YesYes100No302,424*
776-0-199.9%Yes1000No262,067
765-2-099.5Yes991No349,488
755-1-199.0Yes9910No784,121
745-0-295.7Yes9640No438,522
4-3-096.2Yes9640No289,060
734-2-193.3Yes9370No973,141
724-1-285.8Yes861410No1,083,337
3-4-086.1Yes861400No143,645
713-3-175.6Yes762320No641,057
4-0-374.0Yes742420No401,903
703-2-264.0Yes6432400No1,072,867
2-5-064.8Yes653140No43,206
693-1-346.7Yes47421100No795,151
2-4-147.4Yes47421000No238,902
682-3-232.4Yes32471920No529,768
3-0-431.1Yes31472020No219,638
1-6-032.4Yes3249181No7,103
672-2-319.5Yes204630400No586,611
1-5-119.6Yes20473040No46,806
662-1-49.1Yes937421110No323,305
1-4-29.3Yes937421110No130,473
0-7-08.5Yes83741131No532
651-3-33.8Yes425472230No192,416
2-0-53.8Yes425482120No71,229
0-6-13.9Yes426462320No3,891
641-2-41.2Yes1134434700No159,337
0-5-21.3Yes113443470No12,755
631-1-50.2Yes0533441620No69,968
0-4-30.3Yes0531441820No23,666
620-3-40.0100.0%01184430600No26,099
1-0-60.0Yes0221472640No12,929
610-2-5No99.90936391520No17,050
600-1-6No99.803224426500No6,264
590-0-7No98.2011236361320No2,229
Total:65.8%100.0%66229310000No10,260,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship