"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/21100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Botafogo 1 Chapecoense 0 -1.5
+6.3
-0.7
Flamengo 2 Botafogo 0 -0.2
+0.0
Sao Paulo 3 Corinthians 1 -0.1
Santos 1 Flamengo 1 *+0.1
Gremio 2 Sao Paulo 1 -0.2
Atletico-MG 2 Parana 0 -0.2
-0.7
+0.0
America-MG 2 Internacional 0 +0.1
+1.2
-0.1
Fluminense 1 Palmeiras 0 +0.1
+0.3
Corinthians 2 Cruzeiro 0 +0.1
+0.2
Vitoria 1 Sport Recife 0 +0.1
+0.7
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/29100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Chapecoense vs Gremio+1.3-0.3-0.7
-10.3+0.9+6.2
+0.9-0.1-0.5
Flamengo vs Sport Recife-0.4*+0.0+0.8
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Palmeiras vs Parana-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.7-0.2+1.4
Bahia vs Atletico-MG+0.1+0.0-0.1
+1.1-0.1-0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Ceara vs Fluminense+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.4-0.2-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo-0.1+0.0+0.0
Internacional vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1*+0.0
-0.3*+0.0+0.5
Atletico-PR vs Vitoria+0.2-0.5+0.1
Santos vs America-MG+0.1-0.4+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chapecoense finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
8523-0-099.8%Yes1000No1,194
76-77YesYes100No3*
7519-2-250.0Yes5050No2*
7419-1-366.7Yes6733No6*
7318-3-243.8Yes443819No16*
7218-2-360.0Yes60382No50*
7117-4-243.0Yes434692No93*
7017-3-337.8Yes3847132No201*
6917-2-427.5Yes2745244No302*
6816-4-318.0Yes184627810No561*
6716-3-410.8Yes1140331420No1,069*
6615-5-36.599.9%6303919410No1,934*
6515-4-42.899.93213927910No3,273*
6415-3-51.199.5112333416310No5,154*
6314-5-40.498.506233525910No8,437*
6214-4-50.195.20213323216400No12,914*
6114-3-60.088.70172334259200No20,020*
6013-5-5No75.70313283118610No29,559*
5913-4-6No58.1016193227123000No42,970*
5812-6-5No37.6002102532218100No60,339*
5712-5-6No19.8004152930165100No83,535*
5612-4-7No8.10017203126123000No112,086*
5511-6-6No2.500021025312182000No147,902*
5411-5-7No0.60014152830175100No189,066*
5311-4-8No0.10016193127133000No237,311*
5210-6-7No0.0000292431239200No288,422*
5110-5-8No0.000031327301861000.0%344,784*
5010-4-9NoNo00161831281330000.0402,486*
499-6-8NoNo00029233223920000.1459,753*
489-5-9NoNo0003132831185100.6509,963*
479-4-10NoNo00016193227112002.2553,923*
468-6-9NoNo0021127342161006.2586,045*
458-5-10NoNo00151733301220014.3606,319*
448-4-11NoNo002926362250027.0612,140*
437-6-10NoNo004173531101042.9603,667*
427-5-11NoNo001102938193059.7578,655*
416-7-10NoNo0042140286074.4540,218*
406-6-11NoNo000213363712185.6492,457*
396-5-12NoNo017294220292.7434,689*
385-7-11NoNo003204329496.7376,118*
375-6-12NoNo01134037898.7314,798*
365-5-13NoNo00834441399.5254,352*
354-7-12NoNo00427492099.9201,860*
344-6-13NoNo02195029100.0153,907*
334-5-14NoNo01134838100.0114,298*
324-4-15NoNo084448Yes81,247*
313-6-14NoNo053857Yes55,579*
303-5-15NoNo033166Yes37,034*
293-4-16NoNo012474Yes23,875*
282-6-15NoNo011882Yes14,418*
272-5-16NoNo01387Yes8,364*
262-4-17NoNo0991Yes4,746*
251-6-16NoNo793Yes2,460*
241-5-17NoNo496Yes1,109*
231-4-18NoNo397Yes565*
221-3-19NoNo298Yes203*
16-21NoNo100Yes1,309*
Total:0.0%1.6%00000112235679111314139439.1%9,617,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship