How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 6/18 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Bahia 2 Palmeiras 4 -0.4 -4.1 +3.7 -0.9 Corinthians 3 Bahia 0 -0.3 -2.1 +3.3 -0.6 Coritiba 0 Corinthians 0 +0.1 +0.2 Gremio 2 Coritiba 0 -0.1 Cruzeiro 3 Gremio 3 +0.1 *-0.1 +0.0 Vitoria 0 Santos 2 -0.2 -0.3 Fluminense 2 Flamengo 2 +0.2 Chapecoense 0 Botafogo 3 +0.2 +0.2 Avai 0 Fluminense 3 -0.1 -0.2 Sao Paulo 1 Atletico-MG 2 +0.1 +0.3 Flamengo 5 Chapecoense 1 +0.1 +0.1 Palmeiras 1 Atletico-GO 0 -0.1 *-0.1 Sport Recife 1 Vitoria 3 *+0.1 +0.2 Botafogo 3 Vasco da Gama 1 *-0.1 Atletico-PR 1 Sao Paulo 0 +0.2 Ponte Preta 1 Cruzeiro 0 *+0.1 Atletico-MG 2 Sport Recife 2 -0.3 If winner is:HomeEmpateAway Week of 6/24 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Bahia vs Flamengo +0.1-0.0-0.1 +2.1-0.6-1.5 -7.0+1.3+5.5 +1.0-0.2-0.8 Santos vs Sport Recife -0.2+0.1+0.2 -0.4-0.1+0.7 Botafogo vs Avai -0.2+0.1+0.2 -0.3-0.1+0.6 Cruzeiro vs Coritiba +0.1+0.1-0.1 +0.4-0.1-0.3 Sao Paulo vs Fluminense +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.5-0.2-0.3 Vasco da Gama vs Atletico-GO -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.2-0.2+0.4 Chapecoense vs Atletico-MG -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.3-0.1+0.4 Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras -0.0+0.1*-0.0 *-0.0-0.1+0.1 Atletico-PR vs Vitoria -0.1*+0.0+0.0 -0.1-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Bahia finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - L - E wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 87 -97 Yes Yes 100 No 1,015 * 84 23 - 1 - 5 No Yes 100 No 1 81 -83 Yes Yes 100 No 18 * 80 22 - 3 - 4 93.8 % Yes 94 6 No 16 * 79 22 - 4 - 3 81.0 Yes 81 14 5 No 42 * 78 21 - 3 - 5 73.0 Yes 73 27 No 63 * 77 21 - 4 - 4 73.8 Yes 74 25 2 No 126 * 76 21 - 5 - 3 65.4 Yes 65 33 2 No 266 * 75 20 - 4 - 5 62.2 Yes 62 33 5 0 No 402 * 74 20 - 5 - 4 49.3 Yes 49 42 8 0 No 706 * 73 19 - 4 - 6 39.7 Yes 40 49 11 1 No 1,127 * 72 19 - 5 - 5 36.5 Yes 37 49 14 1 No 1,850 * 71 19 - 6 - 4 28.6 99.9 % 29 50 20 2 0 No 2,825 * 70 18 - 5 - 6 21.0 99.9 21 50 26 3 0 No 4,554 * 69 18 - 6 - 5 14.7 99.7 15 47 32 6 0 No 6,768 * 68 18 - 7 - 4 10.7 99.3 11 41 39 9 1 0 No 10,175 * 67 17 - 6 - 6 6.4 98.3 6 34 44 14 2 0 No 14,762 * 66 17 - 7 - 5 3.6 96.2 4 26 46 20 4 0 0 No 21,006 * 65 16 - 6 - 7 1.9 92.0 2 18 44 28 7 1 0 No 29,619 * 64 16 - 7 - 6 0.9 85.3 1 12 38 34 12 2 0 0 No 40,487 * 63 16 - 8 - 5 0.4 74.9 0 7 30 38 20 5 1 0 0 No 54,405 * 62 15 - 7 - 7 0.1 61.3 0 3 21 37 27 10 2 0 0 No 71,286 * 61 15 - 8 - 6 0.0 45.5 0 1 13 32 33 17 5 1 0 No 91,598 * 60 15 - 9 - 5 0.0 29.8 0 0 6 23 34 25 10 2 0 0 No 116,499 * 59 14 - 8 - 7 0.0 16.6 0 0 3 14 29 31 17 5 1 0 0 No 145,377 * 58 14 - 9 - 6 No 7.6 0 1 7 21 31 26 12 3 0 0 0 No 176,333 * 57 14 - 10 - 5 No 2.7 0 0 2 11 25 30 20 8 2 0 0 No 212,055 * 56 13 - 9 - 7 No 0.8 0 0 1 5 16 28 28 16 5 1 0 0 No 249,305 * 55 13 - 10 - 6 No 0.2 0 0 2 8 20 30 25 12 3 1 0 0 No 288,130 * 54 12 - 9 - 8 No 0.0 0 0 3 11 24 29 22 9 2 0 0 0 No 325,006 * 53 12 - 10 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 1 4 14 26 29 18 7 1 0 0 0 No 361,527 * 52 12 - 11 - 6 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 6 17 28 27 15 5 1 0 0 0 0.0 % 392,046 * 51 11 - 10 - 8 No No 0 0 0 2 8 20 29 25 12 3 0 0 0 0.0 420,437 * 50 11 - 11 - 7 No No 0 0 0 2 10 23 30 22 9 2 0 0 0 0.0 439,785 * 49 11 - 12 - 6 No No 0 0 1 4 13 26 30 19 7 1 0 0 0.1 453,171 * 48 10 - 11 - 8 No No 0 0 1 5 17 29 28 15 4 1 0 0 0.7 458,225 * 47 10 - 12 - 7 No No 0 0 0 2 8 21 31 25 11 3 0 0 2.8 454,223 * 46 10 - 13 - 6 No No 0 0 0 3 11 25 31 21 7 1 0 0 8.5 439,770 * 45 9 - 12 - 8 No No 0 0 1 5 16 30 29 15 4 0 0 19.3 419,768 * 44 9 - 13 - 7 No No 0 0 0 2 8 22 33 25 9 1 0 35.2 390,755 * 43 9 - 14 - 6 No No 0 0 0 3 14 29 32 17 4 0 53.5 357,942 * 42 8 - 13 - 8 No No 0 0 1 7 22 35 26 9 1 70.5 319,749 * 41 8 - 14 - 7 No No 0 0 3 14 31 34 16 2 83.3 280,263 * 40 8 - 15 - 6 No No 0 0 1 7 24 38 24 5 91.7 240,331 * 39 7 - 14 - 8 No No 0 0 3 17 37 33 10 96.3 201,124 * 38 7 - 15 - 7 No No 0 0 1 10 32 40 16 98.5 165,585 * 37 7 - 16 - 6 No No 0 0 6 25 44 24 99.5 132,787 * 36 6 - 15 - 8 No No 0 0 3 18 45 33 99.8 104,008 * 35 6 - 16 - 7 No No 0 0 1 12 43 44 99.9 79,678 * 34 6 - 17 - 6 No No 0 1 8 38 53 100.0 59,333 * 33 5 - 16 - 8 No No 0 0 5 32 63 100.0 43,573 * 32 5 - 17 - 7 No No 0 3 26 71 Yes 30,596 * 31 5 - 18 - 6 No No 0 1 20 78 Yes 21,118 * 30 4 - 17 - 8 No No 0 1 15 85 Yes 14,482 * 29 4 - 18 - 7 No No 0 11 89 Yes 9,336 * 28 4 - 19 - 6 No No 0 8 92 Yes 5,835 * 27 3 - 18 - 8 No No 0 6 94 Yes 3,613 * 26 3 - 19 - 7 No No 3 97 Yes 2,119 * 25 3 - 20 - 6 No No 3 97 Yes 1,180 * 24 3 - 21 - 5 No No 1 99 Yes 702 * 10 -23 No No 100 Yes 1,677 * Total: 0.1 % 4.1 % 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 24.6 % 8,170,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship