SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Denver Broncos Playoff Chances 2018

Beat LA Chargers 23-22, playoff odds up 2.8 to 4.2%

4-6-0 .400

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
LA Chargers 22 Denver 23	+2.6		+1.1
Indianapolis 38 Tennessee 10	+0.1		-0.0
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 21	-0.1
Washington 21 Houston 23	-0.1
Jacksonville 16 Pittsburgh 20			+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/22	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Denver vs Pittsburgh	+4.8*-0.1-3.1		+1.1+0.6-0.7
LA Chargers vs Arizona	-0.3*-0.7+1.4
Baltimore vs Oakland	-0.2*+1.5+1.4		-0.0*+0.2+0.1
Houston vs Tennessee	+0.3*-0.8-0.6		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Indianapolis vs Miami	-0.0*+0.7+0.2
NY Jets vs New England			-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Jacksonville			+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

10		6	-	0	-	0	88.4	%			0	0	44	44	11	1	0								47,852
9	.5	5	-	0	-	1	61.4						13	48	32	6	0								233
9		5	-	1	-	0	21.3						2	19	36	30	11	1	0						276,762
		4	-	0	-	2	Out								100										1
8	.5	4	-	1	-	1	6.2						0	6	25	40	24	4	0						1,083
8		4	-	2	-	0	0.3						0	0	3	17	34	31	12	1	0	0			648,893
7	.5	3	-	2	-	1	Out								1	7	28	39	21	4	0				1,964
7		3	-	3	-	0	0.0							0	0	0	3	17	40	30	9	1	0		781,851
		2	-	2	-	2	Out												100						1
6	.5	2	-	3	-	1	Out										0	7	33	43	15	2	0		1,734
6		2	-	4	-	0	Out										0	0	5	25	43	24	3	0	507,532
		1	-	3	-	2	Out														100				1
5	.5	1	-	4	-	1	Out												1	19	47	30	4		761
5		1	-	5	-	0	Out												0	1	14	49	35	1	170,560
4	.5	0	-	5	-	1	Out														13	55	32		125
4		0	-	6	-	0	Out														0	13	71	16	22,743

Total:							4.2	%			0	0	1	3	5	8	11	14	17	15	13	9	4	0	2,462,096

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
LA Chargers 22 Denver 23	-2.2
Arizona 21 Oakland 23	-0.1
Jacksonville 16 Pittsburgh 20	-0.1
Washington 21 Houston 23	-0.1
Detroit 20 Carolina 19	+0.1
Indianapolis 38 Tennessee 10	+0.1
New Orleans 48 Philadelphia 7	-0.0
Seattle 27 Green Bay 24	-0.0
NY Giants 38 Tampa Bay 35	-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
LA Rams vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.2-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/22	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver vs Pittsburgh	-2.1-0.2+1.4
Baltimore vs Oakland	+0.0-0.2-0.3
Houston vs Tennessee	-0.1*+0.2+0.2
Tampa Bay vs San Francisco	+0.1*+0.1-0.2
New Orleans vs Atlanta	-0.0*+0.3+0.2
Detroit vs Chicago	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Carolina vs Seattle	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
LA Chargers vs Arizona	-0.0+0.2+0.1
Dallas vs Washington	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs New England	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs NY Giants	+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Buffalo vs Jacksonville	-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Cincinnati vs Cleveland	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Indianapolis vs Miami	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

10		6	-	0	-	0						0	0	0	23	21	40	4	11	0	0
9	.5	5	-	0	-	1									4	9	39	10	31	7	0
9		5	-	1	-	0									0	2	7	12	50	22	6	1	0	0
		4	-	0	-	2													100
8	.5	4	-	1	-	1										0	1	5	14	32	30	14	3	0	0
8		4	-	2	-	0										0	0	0	4	14	25	27	19	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
7	.5	3	-	2	-	1														0	2	7	18	26	25	15	4	1	0	0
7		3	-	3	-	0												0	0	0	0	1	4	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
		2	-	2	-	2																				100
6	.5	2	-	3	-	1																		0	1	7	18	30	26	14	3	0	0
6		2	-	4	-	0																	0	0	0	1	5	13	24	27	20	8	2	0	0	0
		1	-	3	-	2																									100
5	.5	1	-	4	-	1																					0	1	4	16	28	30	16	4	1	0
5		1	-	5	-	0																					0	0	1	3	12	26	32	20	6	1	0
4	.5	0	-	5	-	1																									1	4	25	36	22	13
4		0	-	6	-	0																								0	0	1	6	23	40	26	5	0

Total:												0	0	0	0	1	2	1	7	6	7	7	6	6	7	8	7	6	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0