SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Team Don't Need This Playoff Chances 2015-2016

Plays at Montreal Is Rig, playoff odds up 0.6 to 27.5%

0-1-0 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/7	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery	100.0*	Average seed
Team Don't Need 142.5 Montreal Is Rig 231.1	-8.5		-4.0		+6.7		-0.5
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Columbus Foxes vs Team Don't Need	-7.2-3.3+7.3		-1.3-0.8+1.3		+9.1+3.2-9.1		-0.4-0.2+0.4
North Bay Batta vs Minnesota Stars	-0.2-1.5+0.1		+0.3-0.2-0.2		+1.4+1.9-1.0		-0.0-0.1+0.0
I Pucked Your S vs Team ZoomerBee	+0.1-1.2-0.1		+0.2-0.3-0.2		+1.2+1.7-0.9		-0.0-0.1+0.0
Montreal Is Rig vs Kebab Removal U	+0.1-0.7-0.1		-0.0*-0.2+0.0		-0.1+0.8+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery	100.0*	Average seed
Kebab Removal U vs Team Don't Need	-6.3-1.5+8.8		-1.3-0.6+1.8		+6.7+0.7-9.3		-0.3-0.1+0.5
Minnesota Stars vs Team ZoomerBee	+0.2-1.4-0.2		-0.1-0.4+0.1		-0.3+0.8+0.3		+0.0-0.1-0.0
Columbus Foxes vs Montreal Is Rig	+0.1*-0.2-0.1		+0.2*-0.1-0.2		+1.2*-0.3-0.9
I Pucked Your S vs North Bay Batta					+0.1+2.4-0.1		-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Team Don't Need finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Lottery		Count

18.5	-20						In		Yes		100								No		3,333	*
18		18	-	2	-	0	In		99.7	%	100	0							No		385
17	.5	17	-	2	-	1	In		98.8		99	1							No		82
17		17	-	3	-	0	In		99.5		100	0							No		2,839	*
16	.5	16	-	3	-	1	In		98.0		98	2							No		557
16		16	-	4	-	0	In		96.5		97	3							No		14,632	*
15	.5	15	-	4	-	1	In		89.6		90	10							No		2,594	*
15		15	-	5	-	0	In		86.1		86	14	0						No		55,273
		14	-	4	-	2	In		89.3		89	11							No		214
14	.5	14	-	5	-	1	In		69.7		70	29	2	0					No		9,391	*
14		14	-	6	-	0	In		61.0		61	36	3	0					No		165,725
		13	-	5	-	2	In		59.3		59	37	4						No		685
13	.5	13	-	6	-	1	100.0	%	34.8		35	52	13	1	0				No		25,650	*
13		13	-	7	-	0	100.0		25.5		25	53	20	1	0				No		393,822
		12	-	6	-	2	In		21.5		21	53	24	2					No		1,783	*
12	.5	12	-	7	-	1	99.7		7.0		7	41	42	10	0				No		56,671	*
12		12	-	8	-	0	98.8		3.1		3	30	48	18	1	0			No		761,277
		11	-	7	-	2	98.1		2.0		2	26	48	22	2				No		3,657	*
11	.5	11	-	8	-	1	89.4		0.1		0	7	39	43	10	0			No		100,234
		10	-	7	-	3	85.7		0.6		1	7	36	42	14	1			No		154
11		11	-	9	-	0	77.5		0.0		0	2	26	50	21	2	0		0.0	%	1,205,888
		10	-	8	-	2	73.0		No			1	22	50	25	2	0		0.0		6,112	*
10	.5	10	-	9	-	1	37.7		No			0	4	33	48	14	1		0.5		146,284
		9	-	8	-	3	37.6		No				4	33	49	13	0		0.5		213
10		10	-	10	-	0	20.1		No			0	1	19	50	28	3	0	2.7		1,572,694
		9	-	9	-	2	16.5		No				1	16	48	32	4	0	3.9		7,874	*
9	.5	9	-	10	-	1	3.3		No				0	3	29	49	18	1	18.6		171,818
		8	-	9	-	3	3.0		No					3	31	48	18	1	18.2		296
9		9	-	11	-	0	1.0		No				0	1	16	48	31	3	34.3		1,695,504
		8	-	10	-	2	0.7		No				0	1	14	47	34	5	38.5		8,524	*
8	.5	8	-	11	-	1	0.1		No					0	4	31	50	15	64.7		167,467
		7	-	10	-	3	Out		No						2	32	52	14	65.9		217
8		8	-	12	-	0	0.0		No					0	1	20	53	26	78.5		1,505,903
		7	-	11	-	2	0.0		No					0	1	18	52	29	81.2		7,548	*
7	.5	7	-	12	-	1	Out		No						0	7	45	47	92.4		131,254
		6	-	11	-	3	Out		No							7	50	43	93.1		189
7		7	-	13	-	0	Out		No						0	3	36	61	96.6		1,092,241
		6	-	12	-	2	Out		No						0	3	33	64	97.3		4,984	*
6	.5	6	-	13	-	1	Out		No							1	23	77	99.2		83,695	*
6		6	-	14	-	0	Out		No						0	0	14	85	99.7		646,123
		5	-	13	-	2	Out		No							0	14	86	99.9		2,787	*
5	.5	5	-	14	-	1	Out		No							0	7	93	100.0		42,648	*
5		5	-	15	-	0	Out		No							0	4	96	100.0		305,822
		4	-	14	-	2	Out		No								4	96	Yes		1,164
4	.5	4	-	15	-	1	Out		No								2	98	Yes		16,426	*
4		4	-	16	-	0	Out		No								1	99	Yes		112,439
		3	-	15	-	2	Out		No								1	99	Yes		385
3	.5	3	-	16	-	1	Out		No								0	100	Yes		4,997	*
3		3	-	17	-	0	Out		No								0	100	Yes		30,809	*
0	-2.5						Out		No									100	Yes		11,345	*

Total:							27.5	%	3.0	%	3	5	8	11	14	17	20	22	41.5	%	10,582,608

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/7	100.0*	Lottery seed
Team Don't Need 142.5 Montreal Is Rig 231.1	+0.5
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Columbus Foxes vs Team Don't Need	+0.4+0.2-0.4
North Bay Batta vs Minnesota Stars	+0.0+0.1-0.0
I Pucked Your S vs Team ZoomerBee	+0.0+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kebab Removal U vs Team Don't Need	+0.3+0.1-0.5
I Pucked Your S vs North Bay Batta	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Minnesota Stars vs Team ZoomerBee	-0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

18.5	-20						100
18		18	-	2	-	0	100	0
17	.5	17	-	2	-	1	99	1
17		17	-	3	-	0	100	0
16	.5	16	-	3	-	1	98	2
16		16	-	4	-	0	97	3
15	.5	15	-	4	-	1	90	10
15		15	-	5	-	0	86	14	0
		14	-	4	-	2	89	11
14	.5	14	-	5	-	1	70	29	2	0
14		14	-	6	-	0	61	36	3	0
		13	-	5	-	2	59	37	4
13	.5	13	-	6	-	1	35	52	13	1	0
13		13	-	7	-	0	25	53	20	1	0
		12	-	6	-	2	21	53	24	2
12	.5	12	-	7	-	1	7	41	42	10	0
12		12	-	8	-	0	3	30	48	18	1	0
		11	-	7	-	2	2	26	48	22	2
11	.5	11	-	8	-	1	0	7	39	43	10	0
		10	-	7	-	3	1	7	36	42	14	1
11		11	-	9	-	0	0	2	26	50	21	2	0
		10	-	8	-	2		1	22	50	25	2	0
10	.5	10	-	9	-	1		0	4	33	48	14	1
		9	-	8	-	3			4	33	49	13	0
10		10	-	10	-	0		0	1	19	50	28	3	0
		9	-	9	-	2			1	16	48	32	4	0
9	.5	9	-	10	-	1			0	3	29	49	18	1
		8	-	9	-	3				3	31	48	18	1
9		9	-	11	-	0			0	1	16	48	31	3
		8	-	10	-	2			0	1	14	47	34	5
8	.5	8	-	11	-	1				0	4	31	50	15
		7	-	10	-	3					2	32	52	14
8		8	-	12	-	0				0	1	20	53	26
		7	-	11	-	2				0	1	18	52	29
7	.5	7	-	12	-	1					0	7	45	47
		6	-	11	-	3						7	50	43
7		7	-	13	-	0					0	3	36	61
		6	-	12	-	2					0	3	33	64
6	.5	6	-	13	-	1						1	23	77
6		6	-	14	-	0					0	0	14	85
		5	-	13	-	2						0	14	86
5	.5	5	-	14	-	1						0	7	93
5		5	-	15	-	0						0	4	96
		4	-	14	-	2							4	96
4	.5	4	-	15	-	1							2	98
4		4	-	16	-	0							1	99
		3	-	15	-	2							1	99
3	.5	3	-	16	-	1							0	100
3		3	-	17	-	0							0	100
0	-2.5													100

Total:							3	5	8	11	14	17	20	22