Minnesota Stars Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Beat I Pucked Your S 30-11, playoff odds up 7.6 to 67.1%

2-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/7	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery	100.0*	Average seed
I Pucked Your S 172.1 Minnesota Stars 188.5	+8.3		+4.3		-6.3		+0.5
Columbus Foxes 172.4 Kebab Removal U 219.5			-0.1		-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
North Bay Batta vs Minnesota Stars	-7.9+2.6+7.9		-6.1*+0.9+6.0		+4.5-2.1-4.5		-0.4+0.1+0.4
Montreal Is Rig vs Kebab Removal U	+0.1*+1.0-0.1		-0.4*+0.9+0.4		-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Columbus Foxes vs Team Don't Need			+0.1+1.3-0.2		+0.1-1.2-0.1		+0.0+0.1-0.0
I Pucked Your S vs Team ZoomerBee			+0.4+1.0-0.4		+0.2*-0.0-0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota Stars vs Team ZoomerBee	+7.9+3.0-7.9		+6.5+1.4-6.5		-4.4-1.9+4.4		+0.4+0.1-0.4
Kebab Removal U vs Team Don't Need			-0.2+1.3+0.2		-0.1-0.9+0.1		-0.0+0.1+0.0
Columbus Foxes vs Montreal Is Rig			+0.7*+0.4-0.7		+0.3*-0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Minnesota Stars finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Lottery		Count

18.5	-22						In		Yes		100								No		5,561	*
18		16	-	4	-	0	In		99.9	%	100	0							No		14,107
		15	-	3	-	2	In		Yes		100								No		59
17	.5	15	-	4	-	1	In		99.8		100	0							No		2,310
17		15	-	5	-	0	In		99.2		99	1							No		45,026
		14	-	4	-	2	In		99.4		99	1							No		157
16	.5	14	-	5	-	1	In		98.5		98	2							No		6,714	*
16		14	-	6	-	0	In		95.6		96	4	0						No		112,877
		13	-	5	-	2	In		94.4		94	6							No		467
15	.5	13	-	6	-	1	In		93.6		94	6	0						No		15,793
		12	-	5	-	3	In		Yes		100								No		23
15		13	-	7	-	0	In		84.2		84	15	0	0					No		225,283
		12	-	6	-	2	In		84.7		85	15	0						No		1,065	*
14	.5	12	-	7	-	1	In		77.8		78	21	1						No		29,242
		11	-	6	-	3	In		76.5		76	24							No		51
14		12	-	8	-	0	In		56.9		57	39	5	0					No		365,439
		11	-	7	-	2	In		54.8		55	41	4						No		1,756	*
13	.5	11	-	8	-	1	100.0	%	45.2		45	46	8	0	0				No		44,482
		10	-	7	-	3	In		41.1		41	47	10	3					No		73
13		11	-	9	-	0	99.9		19.9		20	51	26	3	0				No		487,434
		10	-	8	-	2	100.0		16.9		17	51	28	4	0				No		2,421
12	.5	10	-	9	-	1	99.8		10.3		10	46	37	7	0				No		53,671
		9	-	8	-	3	In		12.3		12	45	34	8					No		73
12		10	-	10	-	0	96.0		1.2		1	19	47	29	4	0			No		535,180
		9	-	9	-	2	96.0		0.5		0	17	48	31	4	0			No		2,690	*
11	.5	9	-	10	-	1	89.8		0.1		0	7	40	42	10	0	0		0.0	%	53,681
		8	-	9	-	3	78.6		No			7	35	37	21				No		84
11		9	-	11	-	0	51.1		No			0	10	41	40	9	0		0.3		487,038
		8	-	10	-	2	48.2		No			0	8	40	42	10	0		0.4		2,442	*
10	.5	8	-	11	-	1	29.2		No			0	3	26	49	20	1		1.4		44,099
		7	-	10	-	3	26.6		No				6	20	53	20			No		64
10		8	-	12	-	0	4.6		No			0	0	4	30	47	18	1	18.7		366,186
		7	-	11	-	2	3.4		No					3	26	50	19	1	20.4		1,752	*
9	.5	7	-	12	-	1	1.3		No				0	1	17	47	31	3	34.0		29,556
		6	-	11	-	3	Out		No						12	41	43	4	46.9		49
9		7	-	13	-	0	0.1		No					0	3	26	51	19	70.6		225,613
		6	-	12	-	2	Out		No						2	25	52	21	72.6		1,042
8	.5	6	-	13	-	1	0.0		No					0	1	17	51	31	82.0		16,046
		5	-	12	-	3	Out		No						7	7	67	20	86.7		15
8		6	-	14	-	0	Out		No						0	4	38	58	95.6		112,903
		5	-	13	-	2	Out		No						0	4	35	60	95.4		459
7	.5	5	-	14	-	1	Out		No						0	2	28	70	97.9		6,895	*
7		5	-	15	-	0	Out		No						0	0	14	86	99.7		44,523
		4	-	14	-	2	Out		No								16	84	Yes		174
6	.5	4	-	15	-	1	Out		No							0	9	91	99.9		2,304	*
6		4	-	16	-	0	Out		No							0	4	96	100.0		14,109
		3	-	15	-	2	Out		No								2	98	Yes		41
5	.5	3	-	16	-	1	Out		No								1	99	Yes		561
5		3	-	17	-	0	Out		No								1	99	Yes		3,353	*
2	-4.5						Out		No									100	Yes		1,793	*

Total:							67.1	%	22.2	%	22	18	15	13	11	9	7	5	13.0	%	3,366,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/7	100.0*	Lottery seed
I Pucked Your S 172.1 Minnesota Stars 188.5	-0.5
If winner is:HomeTieAway
North Bay Batta vs Minnesota Stars	+0.4-0.1-0.4
Columbus Foxes vs Team Don't Need	-0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota Stars vs Team ZoomerBee	-0.4-0.1+0.4
Kebab Removal U vs Team Don't Need	+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

18.5	-22						100
18		16	-	4	-	0	100	0
		15	-	3	-	2	100
17	.5	15	-	4	-	1	100	0
17		15	-	5	-	0	99	1
		14	-	4	-	2	99	1
16	.5	14	-	5	-	1	98	2
16		14	-	6	-	0	96	4	0
		13	-	5	-	2	94	6
15	.5	13	-	6	-	1	94	6	0
		12	-	5	-	3	100
15		13	-	7	-	0	84	15	0	0
		12	-	6	-	2	85	15	0
14	.5	12	-	7	-	1	78	21	1
		11	-	6	-	3	76	24
14		12	-	8	-	0	57	39	5	0
		11	-	7	-	2	55	41	4
13	.5	11	-	8	-	1	45	46	8	0	0
		10	-	7	-	3	41	47	10	3
13		11	-	9	-	0	20	51	26	3	0
		10	-	8	-	2	17	51	28	4	0
12	.5	10	-	9	-	1	10	46	37	7	0
		9	-	8	-	3	12	45	34	8
12		10	-	10	-	0	1	19	47	29	4	0
		9	-	9	-	2	0	17	48	31	4	0
11	.5	9	-	10	-	1	0	7	40	42	10	0	0
		8	-	9	-	3		7	35	37	21
11		9	-	11	-	0		0	10	41	40	9	0
		8	-	10	-	2		0	8	40	42	10	0
10	.5	8	-	11	-	1		0	3	26	49	20	1
		7	-	10	-	3			6	20	53	20
10		8	-	12	-	0		0	0	4	30	47	18	1
		7	-	11	-	2				3	26	50	19	1
9	.5	7	-	12	-	1			0	1	17	47	31	3
		6	-	11	-	3					12	41	43	4
9		7	-	13	-	0				0	3	26	51	19
		6	-	12	-	2					2	25	52	21
8	.5	6	-	13	-	1				0	1	17	51	31
		5	-	12	-	3					7	7	67	20
8		6	-	14	-	0					0	4	38	58
		5	-	13	-	2					0	4	35	60
7	.5	5	-	14	-	1					0	2	28	70
7		5	-	15	-	0					0	0	14	86
		4	-	14	-	2							16	84
6	.5	4	-	15	-	1						0	9	91
6		4	-	16	-	0						0	4	96
		3	-	15	-	2							2	98
5	.5	3	-	16	-	1							1	99
5		3	-	17	-	0							1	99
2	-4.5													100

Total:							22	18	15	13	11	9	7	5