SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Columbus Foxes Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.07 to 35.1%

0-1-0 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/7	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus Foxes 172.4 Kebab Removal U 219.5	-8.6		-3.3		+7.5		-0.5
Team Don't Need 142.5 Montreal Is Rig 231.1			-0.1		-0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Columbus Foxes vs Team Don't Need	+8.3-4.5-8.3		+2.3-1.8-2.3		-8.7+3.7+8.7		+0.5-0.2-0.5
Montreal Is Rig vs Kebab Removal U	+0.1-1.6*-0.1		-0.1*-0.3+0.1		-0.4+1.8+0.4		+0.0-0.1-0.0
North Bay Batta vs Minnesota Stars	-0.1-1.0+0.1		+0.2-0.5-0.2		+0.5+1.4-0.5		-0.0-0.1+0.0
I Pucked Your S vs Team ZoomerBee			+0.2*-0.2-0.2		+0.4+1.6-0.4		-0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus Foxes vs Montreal Is Rig	+8.3-4.5-8.3		+2.5-1.5-2.5		-8.1+3.9+8.0		+0.5-0.2-0.5
Kebab Removal U vs Team Don't Need					-0.2+1.6+0.1		+0.0-0.1-0.0
Minnesota Stars vs Team ZoomerBee			-0.1*-0.2+0.1		-0.2*+0.7+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus Foxes finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Lottery		Count

17.5	-19						In		Yes		100								No		1,171	*
17		17	-	2	-	0	In		99.8	%	100	0							No		1,049	*
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		99.4		99	1							No		155
16		16	-	3	-	0	In		99.0		99	1							No		5,775	*
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		96.4		96	4							No		863	*
15		15	-	4	-	0	In		93.6		94	6	0						No		22,796
		14	-	3	-	2	In		95.7		96	4							No		69
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		82.5		83	17	0						No		3,415	*
14		14	-	5	-	0	In		77.4		77	22	1						No		68,410
		13	-	4	-	2	In		72.3		72	27	1						No		242
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	In		51.3		51	43	6	0					No		9,563	*
13		13	-	6	-	0	In		43.7		44	47	9	0					No		158,742
		12	-	5	-	2	In		38.7		39	52	10						No		631
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.9	%	14.3		14	49	32	4	0				No		20,615
		11	-	5	-	3	In		10.7		11	54	32	4					No		28
12		12	-	7	-	0	99.7		9.3		9	44	39	7	0	0			No		293,855
		11	-	6	-	2	99.9		7.2		7	42	40	11	0				No		1,228	*
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	93.5		0.4		0	12	45	36	6	0	0		0.0	%	35,168
		10	-	6	-	3	95.0		No			18	43	35	5				No		40
11		11	-	8	-	0	88.1		0.1		0	6	38	44	11	1	0		0.0		441,511
		10	-	7	-	2	85.7		No			5	34	47	14	1	0		0.0		2,042	*
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1	38.6		No			0	5	33	47	14	1		0.6		48,448
		9	-	7	-	3	40.7		No				7	33	48	9	2		1.9		54
10		10	-	9	-	0	26.7		No			0	2	24	50	22	2	0	1.6		539,482
		9	-	8	-	2	20.3		No				1	19	50	27	3		2.5		2,569	*
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1	2.2		No				0	2	23	49	24	2	25.9		53,745
		8	-	8	-	3	2.5		No					2	32	44	21		21.0		81
9		9	-	10	-	0	1.1		No				0	1	16	47	32	4	35.6		537,863
		8	-	9	-	2	0.5		No				0	0	13	46	36	5	41.1		2,417	*
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1	0.0		No					0	2	22	52	24	76.7		48,558
		7	-	9	-	3	Out		No						2	18	54	27	80.4		56
8		8	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0	1	16	52	31	82.7		441,486
		7	-	10	-	2	Out		No						1	14	50	35	85.4		1,942	*
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1	Out		No						0	3	35	62	96.7		35,404
		6	-	10	-	3	Out		No							4	47	49	95.7		47
7		7	-	12	-	0	Out		No						0	2	31	67	97.9		293,455
		6	-	11	-	2	Out		No							2	26	72	97.7		1,244	*
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1	Out		No							0	13	87	99.7		20,670
		5	-	11	-	3	Out		No								24	76	Yes		33
6		6	-	13	-	0	Out		No							0	11	89	99.9		158,822
		5	-	12	-	2	Out		No							0	9	91	99.5		601
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out		No							0	4	96	100.0		9,609	*
5		5	-	14	-	0	Out		No							0	2	97	100.0		67,539
		4	-	13	-	2	Out		No								2	98	Yes		249
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out		No								1	99	Yes		3,374	*
4		4	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0	100	Yes		22,815
		3	-	14	-	2	Out		No									100	Yes		79
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out		No									100	Yes		894	*
3		3	-	16	-	0	Out		No								0	100	Yes		5,581	*
0	-2.5						Out		No									100	Yes		2,251	*

Total:							35.1	%	5.7	%	6	8	10	11	13	15	17	20	36.7	%	3,366,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/7	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus Foxes 172.4 Kebab Removal U 219.5	+0.5
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Columbus Foxes vs Team Don't Need	-0.5+0.2+0.5
Montreal Is Rig vs Kebab Removal U	-0.0+0.1+0.0
North Bay Batta vs Minnesota Stars	+0.0+0.1-0.0
I Pucked Your S vs Team ZoomerBee	+0.0+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus Foxes vs Montreal Is Rig	-0.5+0.2+0.5
Kebab Removal U vs Team Don't Need	-0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

17.5	-19						100
17		17	-	2	-	0	100	0
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	99	1
16		16	-	3	-	0	99	1
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	96	4
15		15	-	4	-	0	94	6	0
		14	-	3	-	2	96	4
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	83	17	0
14		14	-	5	-	0	77	22	1
		13	-	4	-	2	72	27	1
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	51	43	6	0
13		13	-	6	-	0	44	47	9	0
		12	-	5	-	2	39	52	10
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	14	49	32	4	0
		11	-	5	-	3	11	54	32	4
12		12	-	7	-	0	9	44	39	7	0	0
		11	-	6	-	2	7	42	40	11	0
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	0	12	45	36	6	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		18	43	35	5
11		11	-	8	-	0	0	6	38	44	11	1	0
		10	-	7	-	2		5	34	47	14	1	0
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1		0	5	33	47	14	1
		9	-	7	-	3			7	33	48	9	2
10		10	-	9	-	0		0	2	24	50	22	2	0
		9	-	8	-	2			1	19	50	27	3
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1			0	2	23	49	24	2
		8	-	8	-	3				2	32	44	21
9		9	-	10	-	0			0	1	16	47	32	4
		8	-	9	-	2			0	0	13	46	36	5
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1				0	2	22	52	24
		7	-	9	-	3					2	18	54	27
8		8	-	11	-	0				0	1	16	52	31
		7	-	10	-	2					1	14	50	35
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1					0	3	35	62
		6	-	10	-	3						4	47	49
7		7	-	12	-	0					0	2	31	67
		6	-	11	-	2						2	26	72
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1						0	13	87
		5	-	11	-	3							24	76
6		6	-	13	-	0						0	11	89
		5	-	12	-	2						0	9	91
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1						0	4	96
5		5	-	14	-	0						0	2	97
		4	-	13	-	2							2	98
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1							1	99
4		4	-	15	-	0							0	100
		3	-	14	-	2								100
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1								100
3		3	-	16	-	0							0	100
0	-2.5													100

Total:							6	8	10	11	13	15	17	20