"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/18100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Fluminense 2 Ponte Preta 0 No
+1.0
Sport Recife 1 Bahia 0 +0.9
Avai 2 Palmeiras 1 +0.6
Vitoria 1 Cruzeiro 1 -0.3
+0.0
Atletico-MG 3 Coritiba 0 -0.2
+0.0
Atletico-PR 3 Vasco da Gama 1 -0.2
Atletico-GO 1 Chapecoense 1 +0.0
Week of 11/25100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Fluminense 1 Sport Recife 2 -1.1
Avai 1 Atletico-PR 0 +0.2
Coritiba 1 Sao Paulo 2 -0.1
Cruzeiro 0 Vasco da Gama 1 -0.1
Bahia 0 Chapecoense 1 -0.1
Corinthians 2 Atletico-MG 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 12/3100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-GO vs Fluminense-0.6+0.0+0.5
Atletico-PR vs Palmeiras-0.2-0.2+0.2
Vitoria vs Flamengo-0.2+0.1+0.1
Chapecoense vs Coritiba+0.1+0.1-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Fluminense finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-Ewins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
491-0-0NoNo4654No20,729,500
470-0-1NoNo100No11,506,312
460-1-0NoNo464410No15,330,748
Total:NoNo2063143No47,566,560
Points
Chance Will Win Championship