Washington Redskins Playoff Chances 2015

Beat Miami 33-10, playoff odds up 18.8 to 56.3%
1-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Washington 33 Miami 10 +6.0
+0.7
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +0.3
+0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.3
-0.0
Chicago 7 Green Bay 42 -0.2
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Atlanta vs Philadelphia+0.7*+3.9-0.9
+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.3*+2.2-0.4
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Washington vs St. Louis+7.4*+3.1-11.7
+0.8*+0.2-1.2
NY Giants vs Atlanta-0.6*+4.9+0.8
-0.1*+0.4+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+0.4*-0.5-0.5
+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Carolina vs Houston-0.3*-1.6+0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Arizona+0.3*-1.6-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In100115*
1514-1-0In1000854
14.513-1-1In10010
1413-2-0In982005,263
13.512-2-1In98257
1312-3-0In9180119,568
12.511-3-1In90911187
1211-4-0In6925304051,171
11.510-4-1In5337461395
1110-5-0100.0%2938152141096,907
9-4-2In1001
10.59-5-199.914362441930729
109-6-097.141826122512300138,843
8-5-2In50502
9.58-6-192.1182117252271975
98-7-061.5011018102321124100151,070
7-6-250.050502
8.57-7-132.60314313262513300849
87-8-010.80170310192420114100127,717
7.56-8-12.7032821272413300678
76-9-00.80100151323272092083,825
5-8-2Out50502
6.55-9-10.30031028312071374
65-10-00.0000029233325842,430
4-9-2Out1001
5.54-10-1Out111293921156
54-11-0Out00315414115,935
3-10-2Out1001
4.53-11-1Out11335666
43-12-0Out0221774,369
3.52-12-1Out237713
32-13-0Out694849
2.51-13-1Out1001
21-14-0Out199107
10-15-0Out10062
Total:56.3%131197987665544332743,584

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 33 Miami 10 -1.7
Chicago 7 Green Bay 42 +0.1
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.0-0.5+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.0-0.3-0.0
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.1*-0.8+0.1
St. Louis vs Seattle-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Arizona vs New Orleans+0.0*-0.6-0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Dallas vs NY Giants-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs St. Louis-1.5-0.1+2.4
Carolina vs Houston-0.0+0.3+0.0
Buffalo vs New England*-0.0+0.2+0.0
NY Giants vs Atlanta+0.1*-0.7-0.1
Chicago vs Arizona-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.0*+0.4-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Cincinnati vs San Diego+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Green Bay vs Seattle+0.0*-0.5-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1514-1-010000
14.513-1-1100
1413-2-0962200
13.512-2-19172
1312-3-08388001
12.511-3-178129111
1211-4-04821241300400
11.510-4-128253344601
1110-5-01020281015120131100
9-4-2100
10.59-5-11131916223416330
109-6-004613188111168121300
8-5-25050
9.58-6-1107813143101516671
98-7-0001281172812101413831000
7-6-25050
8.57-7-1003310311210202112410
87-8-000116000315914161613942000
7.56-8-10302516232315921
76-9-00010001259131617151163100
5-8-25050
6.55-9-100121224261911310
65-10-00001251117212015720
4-9-2100
5.54-10-11310232820132
54-11-00013920302611
3-10-2100
4.53-11-1212153932
43-12-0002113749
3.52-12-181577
32-13-011386
2.51-13-1100
21-14-0496
10-15-0100
Total:85746353635344333333222222211111