Tennessee Titans Playoff Chances 2015

Lost to Tampa Bay 14-24, playoff odds down 12.2 to 25.3%
0-1-0   .000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -6.2
-0.7
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -0.2
-0.0
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.2
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.1
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.8*+1.9+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Indianapolis+0.7*-0.5-1.0
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Houston vs Kansas City-0.4*-5.0+0.6
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.2*-0.6-0.3
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.0*+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cleveland vs Tennessee-6.3*+4.4+9.4
-0.9*+0.4+1.3
Carolina vs Houston+0.9*+5.1-1.2
+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.6*+0.1+1.0
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets-0.6*-2.0+0.9
-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.3*+4.9+0.4
-0.0+0.4+0.1
Buffalo vs New England+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tennessee finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1515-0-0In10073
1414-1-0In982214
13.513-1-1In1002
1313-2-0In95501,536
12.512-2-1In8412425
1212-3-0In76202207,017
11.511-3-1In54335879
1111-4-0100.0%4038101111023,389
10.510-4-1In2338183172220
1010-5-098.372626823920055,847
9-4-2In50502
9.59-5-192.2192418202061477
99-6-072.40314181424187200101,597
8-5-2In1001
8.58-6-140.404173162721921727
88-7-017.0019161724221451000140,558
7-6-2Out1001
7.57-7-14.34029222724102959
77-8-01.50100031020262213410150,789
6-7-2Out1001
6.56-8-1Out031322342070875
66-9-00.100015152730184124,473
5.55-9-1Out00312313717607
55-10-0Out001521413278,727
4-9-2Out67333
4.54-10-1Out0103357339
44-11-0Out003257238,033
3-10-2Out1001
3.53-11-1Out991129
33-12-0Out0079313,129
2.52-12-1Out10041
22-13-0Out1993,150
1.51-13-1Out1001
11-14-0Out0100468
00-15-0Out10094
Total:25.3%34454566677788910743,584
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +1.7
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.1+0.1+0.1
Arizona vs New Orleans+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati-0.1*-0.6+0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Kansas City-0.0*+0.6+0.0
Buffalo vs Indianapolis-0.0*+0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cleveland vs Tennessee+1.7*-1.2-2.6
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+0.0-0.9-0.0
Chicago vs Arizona+0.0-0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Carolina vs Houston-0.0*-0.9+0.1
NY Giants vs Atlanta+0.0*-0.8-0.1
Indianapolis vs NY Jets+0.0*+0.5-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.0*-0.4+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1515-0-0100
1414-1-09532
13.513-1-1100
1313-2-0811450
12.512-2-17212124
1212-3-04432182220
11.511-3-1322332158
1111-4-08312314911010110
10.510-4-1220182017031512
1010-5-007522131371121081200
9-4-25050
9.59-5-11981615361415571
99-6-000321281021291510952100
8-5-2100
8.58-6-10451232149211610310
88-7-000118010614812151513942000
7-6-2100
7.57-7-1040002712232316840
77-8-00010000012481216181612731000
6-7-2100
6.56-8-10141019262311610
66-9-000000251016212115820
5.55-9-11510213120102
55-10-00013919302712
4-9-23367
4.54-10-125294024
44-11-0002113551
3-10-2100
3.53-11-113069
33-12-0011485
2.52-12-1298
22-13-00397
1.51-13-1100
11-14-0199
00-15-0100
Total:12131323232322233333344444455556