San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances 2015

Beat Minnesota 28-21, playoff odds up 12.4 to 49.8%
1-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 +7.4
+0.9
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +0.3
+0.0
Washington 33 Miami 10 -0.3
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 -0.2
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Arizona vs New Orleans-0.4*-2.6+0.5
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina+0.3*-3.6-0.4
+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Atlanta vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-6.3*+3.1+9.1
-0.6*+0.3+0.9
Green Bay vs Seattle+0.7*-4.0-1.1
+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Chicago vs Arizona+0.8*+0.5-0.9
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Washington vs St. Louis+0.3*-3.9-0.5
+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Carolina vs Houston-0.2*+0.6+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Francisco finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1615-0-0In10082
1514-1-0In1000476
14.513-1-1In1005
1413-2-0In99103,005
13.512-2-1In10024
1312-3-0In92800112,525
12.511-3-1In841421124
1211-4-0In7024204036,328
10-3-2In1001
11.510-4-1In553168271
1110-5-0100.0%3238142131077,393
10.59-5-199.813392351820603
109-6-097.452126102412200122,466
8-5-2In1002
9.58-6-190.30721192221910835
98-7-065.9021117122321103100150,338
7-6-2In1003
8.57-7-136.90316315262112310969
87-8-013.701815142323167200141,539
7.56-8-13.43029193123931762
76-9-01.0010002818252414510103,311
5-8-2Out1002
6.55-9-10.20131127312251497
65-10-00.10001414273019557,645
5.54-10-1Out312363117235
54-11-0Out001621413224,635
4.53-11-1Out16275777
43-12-0Out0325717,512
3.52-12-1Out118918
32-13-0Out08921,605
2.51-13-1Out1001
21-14-0Out0100223
10-15-0Out19972
Total:49.8%10987887766554432743,584
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 -1.8
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.1
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.0+0.5-0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Denver vs Baltimore+0.1*+0.5-0.1
Dallas vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.6-0.1
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.0*+0.5-0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.0*+0.9+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco+1.5*-0.7-2.2
Washington vs St. Louis+0.0+0.6-0.0
Carolina vs Houston+0.0-0.5-0.0
Chicago vs Arizona-0.1-0.2+0.1
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.1*+0.5+0.1
Cleveland vs Tennessee-0.0*+0.4+0.1
Cincinnati vs San Diego-0.0*+1.0+0.1
Oakland vs Baltimore+0.0*-0.7-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1615-0-0100
1514-1-01000
14.513-1-1100
1413-2-097110
13.512-2-1100
1312-3-084880001
12.511-3-173111421
1211-4-0492223120400
10-3-2100
11.510-4-1302528368
1110-5-01121281013120131100
10.59-5-11122018203516220
109-6-00561517991168111200
8-5-2100
9.58-6-1007715163814183910
98-7-0002291162101211141162100
7-6-23367
8.57-7-103511311410201910410
87-8-0001260104261115161511731000
7.56-8-13001714232318731
76-9-000100000126101417171410521000
5-8-25050
6.55-9-10014121924201341
65-10-00001261218211913620
5.54-10-1051223311893
54-11-00014112129259
4.53-11-119343422
43-12-002133747
3.52-12-162272
32-13-011682
2.51-13-1100
21-14-0298
10-15-0199
Total:54545343544343333333333222222211