San Diego Chargers Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Beat Detroit 35-14, playoff odds up 8 to 45.6%
1-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 +6.9
+0.8
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.4
+0.0
Tampa Bay 24 Tennessee 14 +0.0
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Oakland vs Cincinnati-0.7*+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Denver vs Baltimore-0.7*+2.6+0.7
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Houston vs Kansas City+0.6*-2.9-0.6
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.5*-7.0+0.5
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
NY Jets vs Cleveland-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs San Diego-9.7*+4.4+9.7
-1.1+0.7+1.1
Oakland vs Baltimore-0.9*-8.9+0.9
-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.6*-1.6+0.6
-0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Diego finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15-16In100136*
1413-2-0In9910753
13.512-2-1In1008
1312-3-0In945013,377
12.511-3-1In962246
1211-4-0In752010409,929
11.510-4-1In66233980
1110-5-0100.0%3636111151022,044
10.59-5-1In2135162232170
109-6-097.8621259261120036,570
9.58-6-194.9272415262150275
98-7-066.102111712242010310047,209
7-6-2Out1001
8.57-7-135.33142162922122306
87-8-012.0017041120241910310047,069
6-7-2Out1001
7.56-8-12.4239222824831250
76-9-01.00100151323261992036,736
5-8-2Out1001
6.55-9-10.61492133285164
65-10-00.1000029233325821,736
5.54-10-1Out21426332487
54-11-0Out00315424010,128
4.53-11-1Out33415437
43-12-0Out0219793,197
3.52-12-1Out1006
32-13-0Out0694690
2.51-13-1Out1001
21-14-0Out298116
10-15-0Out10029
Total:45.6%9876876666655554241,152

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
San Diego 35 Detroit 14 -2.0
New England 17 Pittsburgh 38 -0.1
San Francisco 28 Minnesota 21 +0.1
Washington 33 Miami 10 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Oakland vs Cincinnati+0.1-0.4-0.1
Denver vs Baltimore+0.1*-0.2-0.1
NY Jets vs Cleveland+0.1*+0.7-0.1
Jacksonville vs Carolina-0.0*+0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs San Diego+2.1-1.4-2.1
Green Bay vs Seattle-0.1*+0.7+0.1
Oakland vs Baltimore+0.1*+0.8-0.1
Chicago vs Arizona-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15-16100
1413-2-097210
13.512-2-16338
1312-3-0868501
12.511-3-1742222
1211-4-0512419110400
11.510-4-1353120339
1110-5-0112526101111013110
10.59-5-1120181815222032
109-6-005615169811610101200
9.58-6-1207914132111519250
98-7-0002291072101213151162000
7-6-2100
8.57-7-133112115122021930
87-8-0001160004261114151412741000
6-7-2100
7.56-8-10217132024188311
76-9-00010000125101316171410631000
5-8-2100
6.55-9-11112714272812611
65-10-0000251117202015720
5.54-10-126302624101
54-11-00013919302612
4.53-11-1884341
43-12-00002113553
3.52-12-1100
32-13-011287
2.51-13-1100
21-14-0595
10-15-0100
Total:54444333444343333333333332222222